Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Niña in 2022/23?

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences - Tập 40 - Trang 541-548 - 2022
Fei Zheng1, Bo Wu2, Lin Wang3, Jingbei Peng1, Yao Yao4, Haifeng Zong1, Qing Bao2, Jiehua Ma5, Shuai Hu2, Haolan Ren1, Tingwei Cao1, Renping Lin6, Xianghui Fang7, Lingjiang Tao7, Tianjun Zhou2, Jiang Zhu1
1International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
2State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
3Center for Monsoon System Research (CMSR), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
4CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
5Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre (NZC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
6CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center, Beijing, China
7Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Tóm tắt

The Northern Hemisphere (NH) often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Niña winters. In 2022, a third-year La Niña event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December 2022. Under such a significant global climate signal, whether the Eurasian Continent will experience a tough cold winter should not be assumed, despite the direct influence of mid- to high-latitude, large-scale atmospheric circulations upon frequent Eurasian cold extremes, whose teleconnection physically operates by favoring Arctic air invasions into Eurasia as a consequence of the reduction of the meridional background temperature gradient in the NH. In the 2022/23 winter, as indicated by the seasonal predictions from various climate models and statistical approaches developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, abnormal warming will very likely cover most parts of Europe under the control of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclone near the Ural Mountains, despite the cooling effects of La Niña. At the same time, the possibility of frequent cold conditions in mid-latitude Asia is also recognized for this upcoming winter, in accordance with the tendency for cold air invasions to be triggered by the synergistic effect of a warm Arctic and a cold tropical Pacific on the hemispheric scale. However, how the future climate will evolve in the 2022/23 winter is still subject to some uncertainty, mostly in terms of unpredictable internal atmospheric variability. Consequently, the status of the mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation should be timely updated by medium-term numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction for the necessary date information and early warnings.

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

Tập 40

541-548

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