Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences

Environmental Research Letters - Tập 17 Số 8 - Trang 084037 - 2022
Wenqin Zhuo1,2, Yao Yao2,3, Dehai Luo2,3, Ian Simmonds4, Fei Huang1
1Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, People’s Republic of China
2Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, People’s Republic of China
3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of China
4School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia

Tóm tắt

Abstract This study explores the consequences of independent and combined effects of blockings on the northeast Asian cold vortex (NACV), and corresponding cold outbreaks over East Asia (EA) during boreal winters of 1979–2019. The results show that the development of NACV is closely associated with blocking over the Ural Mountains (UB) upstream and eastern Siberia to mid-North Pacific (SPB) downstream. Here we focus on the initial periods before the peak day of NACV events. It is found that the strong NACV events are usually induced by the initial-UB situation, leading to the greatest temperature drop in EA. While the weak NACV events may be associated with the initial-SPB condition, which can bring less dramatic outbreaks but longer duration, owing to the Ural ridge that formed by the westward shift of SPB. Furthermore, an SPB-UB relay effect is discovered against the background of a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern. In such cases, UB is formed by the westward shift of downstream SPB after the occurrence of NACV, forming a relay effect that motivates the second NACV process, hence prolonging the duration of cold anomalies in EA. These findings highlight the importance of the combined effect of blockings and NACV in the intraseasonal time scale. Compared to the ‘Initial-UB’ and ‘Initial-SPB’ situation, this ‘SPB-UB relay’ scenario can produce longer-lasting cold extreme in EA, which may be indicative of the short-term weather forecasting of such extreme cold weather.

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Environmental Research Letters

Tập 17 Số 8

084037

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