Wintertime internal climate variability over Eurasia in the CESM large ensemble
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Aalbers EE, Lenderink G, van Meijgaard E, van den Hurk B (2018) Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability? Clim Dyn 50:4745–4766. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9
Amaya DJ, Siler N, Xie S-P, Miller AJ (2018) The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus. Clim Dyn 51:305–319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3921-5
Bellomo K, Murphy LN, Cane MA, Clement AC, Polvani LM (2018) Historical forcings as main drivers of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in the CESM large ensemble. Clim Dyn 50:3687–3698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3834-3
Chen W, Lan X, Wang L, Ma Y (2013) The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia. Chin Sci Bull 58:1355–1362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5654-5
Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38:527–546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
Deser C, Phillips AS, Alexander MA, Smoliak BV (2014) Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: uncertainty due to internal variability. J Clim 27:2271–2296. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1
Gong H, Wang L, Chen W, Wu R, Wei K, Cui X (2014) The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon in CMIP5 models. J Clim 27:1659–1678. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00039.1
Gong H, Wang L, Chen W, Nath D, Huang G, Tao W (2015) Diverse influences of ENSO on the East Asian-Western Pacific winter climate tied to different ENSO properties in CMIP5 models. J Clim 28:2187–2202. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00405.1
Gong H, Wang L, Chen W, Chen X, Nath D (2017) Biases of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models. Environ Res Lett 12. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014001
Gong H, Wang L, Zhou W, Chen W, Wu R, Liu L, Nath D, Leung MY (2018) Revisiting the northern mode of East Asian winter monsoon variation and its response to global warming. J Clim 31:9001–9014. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0136.1
Harada Y, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Onoda H, Onogi K, Miyaoka K, Takahashi K (2016) The JRA-55 reanalysis: representation of atmospheric circulation and climate variability. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 94:269–302. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2016-015
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2012) Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophys Res Lett 39. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050087
Hoerling M, Eischeid J, Perlwitz J (2010) Regional precipitation trends: distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing. J Clim 23:2131–2145. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1
Hu K, Huang G, Wu R, Wang L (2018) Structure and dynamics of a wave train along the wintertime Asian jet and its impact on East Asian climate. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3674-1
Huang R, Chen J, Wang L, Lin Z (2012) Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system. Adv Atmos Sci 29:910–942. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2015-x
Huang W, Chen R, Yang Z, Wang B, Ma W (2017) Exploring the combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO on the wintertime climate over East Asia using self-organizing maps. J Geophys Res-Atmos 122:9107–9129. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd026812
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77:437–471
Kay JE, Deser C, Phillips A, Mai A et al (2015) The community earth system model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96:1333–1349. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1
Kelley C, Ting M, Seager R, Kushnir Y (2012) The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th Century winter drying of the Mediterranean region. Clim Dyn 38:2001–2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1221-z
Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y, Ebita A, Moriya M, Onoda H, Onogi K, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Miyaoka K, Takahashi K (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 93:5–48. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001
Liu Y, Wang L, Zhou W, Chen W (2014) Three Eurasian teleconnection patterns: spatial structures, temporal variability, and associated winter climate anomalies. Clim Dyn 42:2817–2839. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2163-z
Meehl GA, Hu A, Arblaster JM, Fasullo J, Trenberth KE (2013) Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. J Clim 26:7298–7310. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1
Mori M, Watanabe M, Shiogama H, Inoue J, Kimoto M (2014) Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nat Geosci 7:869–873. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2277
Oh H, Jhun J-G, Ha K-J, Seo K-H (2017) Combined effect of the East Atlantic/West Russia and Western Pacific teleconnections on the East Asian winter monsoon. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 53:273–285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-017-0030-7
Qiao SB, Hu P, Feng TC, Cheng JB, Han ZX, Gong ZQ, Zhi R, Feng GL (2018) Enhancement of the relationship between the winter Arctic oscillation and the following summer circulation anomalies over central East Asia since the early 1990s. Clim Dyn 50:3485–3503. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3818-3
Raisanen J (2007) How reliable are climate models? Tellus series A-dynamic. Meteorol Oceanogr 59:2–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00211.x
Raymond F, Ullmann A, Camberlin P, Oueslati B, Drobinski P (2018) Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin. Clim Dyn 50:4437–4453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3884-6
Seviour W, J. M (2017) Weakening and shift of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex: internal variability or forced response? Geophys Res Lett 44:3365–3373. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073071
Sriver RL, Forest CE, Keller K (2015) Effects of initial conditions uncertainty on regional climate variability: an analysis using a low-resolution CESM ensemble. Geophys Res Lett 42:5468–5476. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064546
Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007) The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:2053–2075. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2076
Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25:1297–1300
van Oldenborgh GJ, Doblas Reyes FJ, Drijfhout SS, Hawkins E (2013) Reliability of regional climate model trends. Environ Res Lett 8. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014055
Wallace JM, Deser C, Smoliak BV, Phillips AS (2013) Attribution of Climate Change in the presence of internal variability. In: Climate change: multidecadal and beyond, Volume 6. World Scientific, pp 1–29
Wang L, Chen W (2014) The East Asian winter monsoon: Re-amplification in the mid-2000s. Chinese Sci Bull 59:430–436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-013-0029-0
Wang L, Liu Y, Zhang Y, Chen W, Chen S (2018) Time-varying structure of the wintertime Eurasian pattern: role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and atmospheric mean flow. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4261-9
Wu Z, Li J, Jiang Z, He J (2010) Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter. Clim Dyn 37:1661–1669. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0938-4
Yun J, Ha K-J, Jo Y-H (2018) Interdecadal changes in winter surface air temperature over East Asia and their possible causes. Clim Dyn 51:1375–1390. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3960-y