An Intensity Index for the East Asian Winter Monsoon
Tóm tắt
The thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent oceans is the primary aspect of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) that can be well represented in the sea level pressure (SLP) field. Based on this consideration, a new SLP-based index measuring the intensity of the EAWM is proposed by explicitly taking into account both the east–west and the north–south pressure gradients around East Asia. The new index can delineate the EAWM-related circulation anomalies well, including the deepened (shallow) midtropospheric East Asian trough, sharpened and accelerated (widened and decelerated) upper-tropospheric East Asian jet stream, and enhanced (weakened) lower-tropospheric northerly winds in strong (weak) EAWM winters. Compared with previous indices, the new index has a very good performance describing the winter-mean surface air temperature variations over East Asia, especially for the extreme warm or cold winters. The index is strongly correlated with several atmospheric teleconnections including the Arctic Oscillation, the Eurasian pattern, and the North Pacific Oscillation/western Pacific pattern, implying the possible internal dynamics of the EAWM variability. Meanwhile, the index is significantly linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean. Moreover, the SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are more closely related to the index than ENSO as an independent predictor. This adds further knowledge to the prediction potentials of the EAWM apart from ENSO. The predictability of the index is high in the hindcasts of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) model from Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Hence, it would be a good choice to use this index for the monitoring, prediction, and research of the EAWM.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alory, 2007, Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960–1999 and associated mechanisms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02606, 10.1029/2006GL028044
Annamalai, 2005, Southwest Indian Ocean SST variability: Its local effect and remote influence on Asian monsoons, J. Climate, 18, 4150, 10.1175/JCLI3533.1
Boo, 2011, Evaluating the East Asian monsoon simulation in climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D01109, 10.1029/2010JD014737
Chan, 2004
Chang, 2006
Chang, 2011
Chen, 1999, East Asian winter monsoon anomaly and variation of global circulation. Part I: A comparison study on strong and weak winter monsoon, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 101
Chen, 2002, Global land precipitation: A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations, J. Hydrometeor., 3, 249, 10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0249:GLPAYM>2.0.CO;2
Chen, 2003
Chen, 2000, The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 17, 48, 10.1007/s00376-000-0042-5
Cui, 1999, East Asian winter monsoon index and its variation analysis, J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor., 22, 321
Gong, 2001, East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2073, 10.1029/2000GL012311
Guo, 1994, Relationship between the variations of East Asian winter monsoon and temperature anomalies in China, Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., 5, 218
Honda, 2009, Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 10.1029/2008GL037079
Hu, 2000, Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 4607, 10.1029/1999JD901031
Jhun, 2004, A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon, J. Climate, 17, 711, 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0711:ANEAWM>2.0.CO;2
Ji, 1997, Model study on the interannual variability of Asian winter monsoon and its influence, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 1, 10.1007/s00376-997-0039-4
Jiang, 2013, Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1312, 10.1002/jgrd.50193
Lau, 1983, Short-term planetary-scale interactions over the tropics and midlatitudes. Part II: Winter-MONEX period, Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1372, 10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1372:STPSIO>2.0.CO;2
Lau, 1996, The role of the “atmospheric bridge” in linking tropical Pacific ENSO events to extratropical SST anomalies, J. Climate, 9, 2036, 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2036:TROTBI>2.0.CO;2
Li, 2012, Predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability as indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29, 441, 10.1007/s00376-011-1115-3
Li, 2010, A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon, J. Climate, 23, 4255, 10.1175/2010JCLI3375.1
Li, 2007, Several climate factors influencing the winter temperature over China, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci, 31, 505, 10.1007/s11430-007-2046-9
Linkin, 2008, The North Pacific Oscillation–west Pacific teleconnection pattern: Mature-phase structure and winter impacts, J. Climate, 21, 1979, 10.1175/2007JCLI2048.1
Liu, 2007, A method for determining intensity index of East Asian winter monsoon, Sci. Geogr. Sin., 27, 10
Liu, 2012, Variability of the Eurasian teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere winter and its influences on the climate in China, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci, 36, 423
Lu, 1999, A unified monsoon index for south China, J. Climate, 12, 2375, 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2375:AUMIFS>2.0.CO;2
Nakamura, 2002, Interannual and decadal modulations recently observed in the Pacific storm track activity and East Asian winter monsoon, J. Climate, 15, 1855, 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1855:IADMRO>2.0.CO;2
Neale, 2003, The Maritime Continent and its role in the global climate: A GCM study, J. Climate, 16, 834, 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0834:TMCAIR>2.0.CO;2
Palmer, 2004, Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-To-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853, 10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853
Rayner, 2003, Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 10.1029/2002JD002670
Shi, 1996, Features of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity on multiple time scale in recent 40 years and their relation to climate, Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., 7, 175
Sun, 1997, Relationship between the disturbances of East Asian trough and tropical convective activities in boreal winter, Chin. Sci. Bull., 42, 500
Takaya, 2005, Mechanisms of intraseasonal amplification of the cold Siberian high, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 4423, 10.1175/JAS3629.1
Takaya, 2013, Interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and related modulations of the planetary waves, J. Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00842.1
Thompson, 1998, The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297, 10.1029/98GL00950
Trenberth, 1998, Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 291, 10.1029/97JC01444
Trenberth, 2006
Wallace, 1981, Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter, Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784, 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2
Wang, 2000, Pacific–East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?, J. Climate, 13, 1517, 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2
Wang, 2010, Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: The northern and southern temperature modes, J. Climate, 23, 1495, 10.1175/2009JCLI3243.1
Wang, 2004, A new East Asian winter monsoon intensity index and atmospheric circulation comparison between strong and weak composite, Quat. Sci., 24, 19
Wang, 2010, How well do existing indices measure the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon?, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27, 855, 10.1007/s00376-009-9094-3
Wang, 2011, Two major modes of the wintertime precipitation over China, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1105
Wang, 2014, The East Asian winter monsoon: Re-amplification in the mid-2000s, Chin. Sci. Bull., 59, 430, 10.1007/s11434-013-0029-0
Wang, 2009, Interannual variations of East Asian trough axis at 500 hPa and its association with the East Asian winter monsoon pathway, J. Climate, 22, 600, 10.1175/2008JCLI2295.1
Wang, 2009, Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and their association with quasi-stationary planetary wave activity, J. Climate, 22, 4860, 10.1175/2009JCLI2973.1
Wang, 2010, Effect of the climate shift around mid-1970s on the relationship between wintertime Ural blocking circulation and East Asian climate, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 153, 10.1002/joc.1876
Watanabe, 2002, Role of Indian Ocean warming in the development of Philippine Sea anticyclone during ENSO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1478, 10.1029/2001GL014318
Wu, 2002, Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10.1029/2002GL015373
Wu, 1999, Impact of variations of winter sea-ice extents in the Kara/Barents Seas on winter monsoon over East Asia, Acta Meteor. Sin., 13, 141
Wu, 2006, Distinct modes of the East Asian winter monsoon, Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2165, 10.1175/MWR3150.1
Wu, 2011, Effects of autumn–winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian high, Chin. Sci. Bull., 56, 3220, 10.1007/s11434-011-4696-4
Xu, 1965, 85
Yang, 2002, Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian–Pacific–American winter climate anomalies, J. Climate, 15, 306, 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0306:VOTEAJ>2.0.CO;2
Zhang, 1997, Climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon: Results from the 1979–95 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2605, 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2605:CAIVOT>2.0.CO;2
Zheng, 2013, Impact of heating anomalies associated with rainfall variations over the Indo-western Pacific on Asian atmospheric circulation in winter, Climate Dyn., 40, 2023, 10.1007/s00382-012-1478-x
Zhu, 2008, An index of East Asian winter monsoon applied to the description of China’s mainland winter temperature changes, Acta Meteor. Sin., 22, 522