On the Second-Year Warming in Late 2019 over the Tropical Pacific and Its Attribution to an Indian Ocean Dipole Event

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences - Tập 38 - Trang 2153-2166 - 2021
Licheng Feng1,2, Fei Liu3,4, Rong-Hua Zhang5,6, Xue Han1,2, Bo Yu7, Chuan Gao5,6
1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, China
2Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, China
3School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China
4Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
5Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology and Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China
6Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
7Beijing Weather Forecast Center, Beijing, China

Tóm tắt

After its maturity, El Niño usually decays rapidly in the following summer and evolves into a La Niña pattern. However, this was not the case for the 2018/19 El Niño event. Based on multiple reanalysis data sets, the space-time evolution and triggering mechanism for the unusual second-year warming in late 2019, after the 2018/19 El Niño event, are investigated in the tropical Pacific. After a short decaying period associated with the 2018/19 El Niño condition, positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) re-intensified in the eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2019. Compared with the composite pattern of El Niño in the following year, two key differences are evident in the evolution of SSTAs in 2019. First, is the persistence of the surface warming over the central equatorial Pacific in May, and second, is the re-intensification of the positive SSTAs over the eastern equatorial Pacific in September. Observational results suggest that the re-intensification of anomalous westerly winds over the western and central Pacific, induced remotely by an extreme Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, acted as a triggering mechanism for the second-year warming in late 2019. That is, the IOD-related cold SSTAs in the eastern Indian Ocean established and sustained anomalous surface westerly winds over the western equatorial Pacific, which induced downwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward along the equator. At the same time, the subsurface ocean provided plenty of warm water in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budget analyses further confirm that positive zonal advection, induced by the anomalous westerly winds, and thermocline feedback played important roles in leading to the second-year warming in late 2019. This study provides new insights into the processes responsible for the diversity of El Niño evolution, which is important for improving the physical understanding and seasonal prediction of El Niño events.

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

Tập 38

2153-2166

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