Weather and Forecasting

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Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the FGOALS-f2 Ensemble Prediction System
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 36 Số 5 - Trang 1759-1778 - 2021
Jinxiao Li, Qing Bao, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Lei Wang, Bian He, Xiaocong Wang, Jing Yang, Xiaofei Wu, Zili Shen
AbstractThere is a distinct gap between tropical cyclone (TC) prediction skill and the societal demand for accurate predictions, especially in the western Pacific (WP) and North Atlantic (NA) basins, where densely populated areas are frequently affected by intense TC events. In this study, seasonal prediction skill for TC activity in the WP and NA of the fully coup...... hiện toàn bộ
The Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM): Performance for Tropical Rainfall Forecasting and Sensitivity to Convective Scheme and Horizontal Resolution
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 31 Số 5 - Trang 1547-1572 - 2016
Silvio Nilo Figueroa, José Paulo Bonatti, Paulo Yoshio Kubota, Georg Grell, Hugh Morrison, Saulo R. M. Barros, Júlio Pablo Reyes Fernández, Enver Ramírez, Léo Siqueira, Graziela Luzia, Josiane Silva, Juliana R. Silva, Jayant Pendharkar, Vinícius Capistrano, Débora Souza Alvim, Diego Pereira Enoré, Fábio Luiz Rodrigues Diniz, Praki Satyamurti, Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti, Paulo Nobre, Henrique M. J. Barbosa, Celso L. Mendes, Jairo Panetta
Abstract This article describes the main features of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM), analyses of its performance for tropical rainfall forecasting, and its sensitivity to convective scheme and horizontal resolution. BAM is the new global atmospheric model of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research [Centro de Previsão de ...... hiện toàn bộ
Revision of Convection and Vertical Diffusion Schemes in the NCEP Global Forecast System
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 26 Số 4 - Trang 520-533 - 2011
Jongil Han, Hua‐Lu Pan
Abstract A new physics package containing revised convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Global Forecast System is described. The shallow convection (SC) scheme in the revision employs a mass flux parameterization replacing the old turbulent diffusion-based approach. For deep conve...... hiện toàn bộ
Forecast and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters (ForTraCC) Using Satellite Infrared Imagery: Methodology and Validation
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 23 Số 2 - Trang 233-245 - 2008
Daniel Vila, Luiz A. T. Machado, H. Laurent, Inés Velasco
Abstract The purpose of this study is to develop and validate an algorithm for tracking and forecasting radiative and morphological characteristics of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) through their entire life cycles using geostationary satellite thermal channel information (10.8 μm). The main features of this system are the following: 1) a cloud ...... hiện toàn bộ
Discrimination of Mesoscale Convective System Environments Using Sounding Observations
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 22 Số 5 - Trang 1045-1062 - 2007
Ariel Cohen, Michael C. Coniglio, Stephen F. Corfidi, Sarah J. Corfidi
Abstract The prediction of the strength of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a major concern to operational meteorologists and the public. To address this forecast problem, this study examines meteorological variables derived from sounding observations taken in the environment of quasi-linear MCSs. A set of 186 soundings that sampled the beginni...... hiện toàn bộ
Features of MCSs in the Central United States Using Simulations of ERA5-Forced Convection-Permitting Climate Models
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 37 Số 9 - Trang 1681-1702 - 2022
Yunsung Hwang, Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li
Abstract In this work, we characterized the occurrences and conditions before the initiations of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States, using 15 years of observations and convection-permitting climate model simulations. The variabilities of MCSs in summer were obtained using high-resolution (4 km) observation data [Stage-IV (stIV)] and EC...... hiện toàn bộ
Application of Object-Based Time-Domain Diagnostics for Tracking Precipitation Systems in Convection-Allowing Models
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 29 Số 3 - Trang 517-542 - 2014
Adam J. Clark, Randy Bullock, Tara Jensen, Ming Xue, Fanyou Kong
Abstract Meaningful verification and evaluation of convection-allowing models requires approaches that do not rely on point-to-point matches of forecast and observed fields. In this study, one such approach—a beta version of the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension [known as MODE time-domain (MODE-...... hiện toàn bộ
Extreme Rainstorms that Caused Devastating Flooding across the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia during November and December 2014
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 32 Số 3 - Trang 849-872 - 2017
Ooi See Hai, Azizan Abu Samah, Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli, K. Subramaniam, Muhammad Yunus Ahmad Mazuki
Abstract During the early boreal winter (northeast) monsoon (November–December), cold air frequently bursts out from intense Siberian highs toward the Chinese coast in response to the development and movement of a 500-hPa trough. The resultant strong low-level northwesterlies turn into northeasterlies across the South China Sea as “cold surges.” On i...... hiện toàn bộ
GPS Dropwindsonde and WSR-88D Observations of Tropical Cyclone Vertical Wind Profiles and Their Characteristics
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 28 Số 1 - Trang 77-99 - 2013
Ian M. Giammanco, John L. Schroeder, Mark D. Powell
Abstract The characteristics of tropical cyclone vertical wind profiles and their associated wind speed peaks below 1.5 km were examined through the use of a large number of GPS dropwindsondes (GPS sondes) and radar-derived velocity–azimuth display (VAD) profiles. Composite wind profiles were generated to document the mean structure of tropical cyclo...... hiện toàn bộ
Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)
Weather and Forecasting - Tập 20 Số 4 - Trang 531-543 - 2005
Mark DeMaria, Michelle Mainelli, Lynn K. Shay, John A. Knaff, John Kaplan
Abstract Modifications to the Atlantic and east Pacific versions of the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for each year from 1997 to 2003 are described. Major changes include the addition of a method to account for the storm decay over land in 2000, the extension of the forecasts from 3 to 5 days in 2001, and the u...... hiện toàn bộ
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