The Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM): Performance for Tropical Rainfall Forecasting and Sensitivity to Convective Scheme and Horizontal Resolution

Weather and Forecasting - Tập 31 Số 5 - Trang 1547-1572 - 2016
Silvio Nilo Figueroa1,2, José Paulo Bonatti2, Paulo Yoshio Kubota1,2, Georg Grell3, Hugh Morrison4, Saulo R. M. Barros5, Júlio Pablo Reyes Fernández2, Enver Ramírez2, Léo Siqueira6, Graziela Luzia2, Josiane Silva2, Juliana R. Silva2, Jayant Pendharkar1,2, Vinícius Capistrano1,2, Débora Souza Alvim1,2, Diego Pereira Enoré2, Fábio Luiz Rodrigues Diniz2, Praki Satyamurti7, Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti2, Paulo Nobre1,2, Henrique M. J. Barbosa8, Celso L. Mendes7, Jairo Panetta9
1Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change (Rede CLIMA), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil
2Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil
3National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
4National Center for Atmospheric Research,j Boulder, Colorado
5Department of Applied Mathematics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
6Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science , University of Miami , Miami, Florida
7National Institute for Space Research, São José Dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil
8Department of Physics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
9Technological Institute of Aeronautics (ITA), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil

Tóm tắt

Abstract This article describes the main features of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM), analyses of its performance for tropical rainfall forecasting, and its sensitivity to convective scheme and horizontal resolution. BAM is the new global atmospheric model of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research [Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)], which includes a new dynamical core and state-of-the-art parameterization schemes. BAM’s dynamical core incorporates a monotonic two-time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is carried out completely on the model grid for the tridimensional transport of moisture, microphysical prognostic variables, and tracers. The performance of the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from two convective schemes, the Grell–Dévényi (GD) scheme and its modified version (GDM), and two different horizontal resolutions are evaluated against the daily TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis over different tropical regions. Three main results are 1) the QPF skill was improved substantially with GDM in comparison to GD; 2) the increase in the horizontal resolution without any ad hoc tuning improves the variance of precipitation over continents with complex orography, such as Africa and South America, whereas over oceans there are no significant differences; and 3) the systematic errors (dry or wet biases) remain virtually unchanged for 5-day forecasts. Despite improvements in the tropical precipitation forecasts, especially over southeastern Brazil, dry biases over the Amazon and La Plata remain in BAM. Improving the precipitation forecasts over these regions remains a challenge for the future development of the model to be used not only for numerical weather prediction over South America but also for global climate simulations.

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Weather and Forecasting

Tập 31 Số 5

1547-1572

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