Risk Analysis
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Reducing the Risk of Human ExtinctionIn this century a number of events could extinguish humanity. The probability of these events may be very low, but the expected value of preventing them could be high, as it represents the value of all future human lives. We review the challenges to studying human extinction risks and, by way of example, estimate the cost effectiveness of preventing extinction‐level asteroid impacts.
Risk Analysis - Tập 27 Số 5 - Trang 1335-1344 - 2007
Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks
Risk Analysis - Tập 30 Số 10 - Trang 1495-1506 - 2010
Beyond the Domain of Direct Observation: How to Specify a Probability Distribution that Represents the “State of Knowledge” About Uncertain Inputs
Risk Analysis - Tập 19 - Trang 131-134 - 1999
Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack OutcomeThis article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount ... ...
Risk Analysis - Tập 32 Số 2 - Trang 304-318 - 2012
The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?This responds to an “evaluation” of the classical model for structured expert judgment by Bolger and Rowe in this issue. This response references extensive expert judgment performance data in the public domain which played no role in their evaluation.
Risk Analysis - Tập 35 Số 1 - Trang 12-15 - 2015
A Probabilistic Model for the Failure Frequency of Underground Gas PipelinesA model is constructed for the failure frequency of underground pipelines per kilometer year, as a function of pipe and environmental characteristics. The parameters in the model were quantified, with uncertainty, using historical data and structured expert judgment. Fifteen experts from institutes in The Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and Canada... ...
Risk Analysis - Tập 18 Số 4 - Trang 511-527 - 1998
Quantitative Risk Estimation for a Legionella pneumophila Infection Due to Whirlpool UseQuantitative microbiological risk assessment was used to quantify the risk associated with the exposure to Legionella pneumophila in a whirlpool. Conceptually, air bubbles ascend to the surface, intercepting Legionella from the traversed water. At the surface the bubble bursts into dominantly noninhalable jet drops and inhalable film dr... ...
Risk Analysis - Tập 33 Số 7 - Trang 1228-1236 - 2013
Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Risk: A Case Study of Climate Change and Flooding in BangladeshIn this article we investigate the complex relationship between environmental risk, poverty, and vulnerability in a case study carried out in one of the poorest and most flood‐prone countries in the world, focusing on household and community vulnerability and adaptive coping mechanisms. Based upon the steadily growing amount of literature in this field we develop and test our own analytica... ...
Risk Analysis - Tập 27 Số 2 - Trang 313-326 - 2007
Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models for Use in Phase II of the Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant
Risk Analysis - - 1999
Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase II of the Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain model (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer ......
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