Risk Analysis
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Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction
Risk Analysis - Tập 27 Số 5 - Trang 1335-1344 - 2007
In this century a number of events could extinguish humanity. The probability of
these events may be very low, but the expected value of preventing them could be
high, as it represents the value of all future human lives. We review the
challenges to studying human extinction risks and, by way of example, estimate
the cost effectiveness of preventing extinction‐level asteroid impacts.
Robust Climate Policies Under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Robust Decision Making and Info‐Gap Methods
Risk Analysis - Tập 32 Số 10 - Trang 1657-1672 - 2012
This study compares two widely used approaches for robustness analysis of
decision problems: the info‐gap method originally developed by Ben‐Haim and the
robust decision making (RDM) approach originally developed by Lempert, Popper,
and Bankes. The study uses each approach to evaluate alternative paths for
climate‐altering greenhouse gas emissions given the potential for nonlinear
threshold respon...
Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks
Risk Analysis - Tập 30 Số 10 - Trang 1495-1506 - 2010
Beyond the Domain of Direct Observation: How to Specify a Probability Distribution that Represents the “State of Knowledge” About Uncertain Inputs
Risk Analysis - Tập 19 - Trang 131-134 - 1999
Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack Outcome
Risk Analysis - Tập 32 Số 2 - Trang 304-318 - 2012
This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by
assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With
given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed,
and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each
attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of
resou...
Our Knowledge of the World is Often Not Simple: Policymakers Should Not Duck that Fact, But Should Deal with It
Risk Analysis - Tập 35 Số 1 - Trang 19-20 - 2015
The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?
Risk Analysis - Tập 35 Số 1 - Trang 12-15 - 2015
This responds to an “evaluation” of the classical model for structured expert
judgment by Bolger and Rowe in this issue. This response references extensive
expert judgment performance data in the public domain which played no role in
their evaluation.
Equal Versus Differential Weighting in Combining Forecasts
Risk Analysis - Tập 35 Số 1 - Trang 16-18 - 2015
There is Data, and then there is Data: Only Experimental Evidence will Determine the Utility of Differential Weighting of Expert Judgment
Risk Analysis - Tập 35 Số 1 - Trang 21-26 - 2015
A Probabilistic Model for the Failure Frequency of Underground Gas Pipelines
Risk Analysis - Tập 18 Số 4 - Trang 511-527 - 1998
A model is constructed for the failure frequency of underground pipelines per
kilometer year, as a function of pipe and environmental characteristics. The
parameters in the model were quantified, with uncertainty, using historical data
and structured expert judgment. Fifteen experts from institutes in The
Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and
Canada partici...
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