The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?

Risk Analysis - Tập 35 Số 1 - Trang 12-15 - 2015
Roger Cooke1

Tóm tắt

This responds to an “evaluation” of the classical model for structured expert judgment by Bolger and Rowe in this issue. This response references extensive expert judgment performance data in the public domain which played no role in their evaluation.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1016/0005-1098(88)90011-8

10.1007/978-0-585-34290-0_4

10.1002/ieam.1559

10.1111/cobi.12369

Sackman H, 1975, Delphi Critique, Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Processes

10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.005

Cooke RM, 2014, Series Title: Ethical Economy—Studies in Economic Ethics and Philosophy

10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.015

10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.014

Aspinall WP, 2002, The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999, 71

Wadge G, 2014, The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 2000 to 2010, 439

10.1017/CBO9781139047562.005