Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black‐carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom‐up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr⁻¹in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial‐era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m⁻²with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m⁻². Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m⁻². Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial‐era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m⁻²with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m⁻². Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co‐emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m⁻², is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present‐day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short‐lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co‐emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short‐lived co‐emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy‐related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial‐era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m⁻²during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short‐lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial‐era climate forcing by all short‐lived species from black‐carbon‐rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m⁻²with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m⁻²). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black‐carbon‐rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co‐emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black‐carbon mitigation actions, non‐science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near‐term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black‐carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

This paper provides a first overview of the performance of state‐of‐the‐art global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), and compares it to that in the previous model generation (CMIP3). For the first time, the indices based on daily temperature and precipitation are calculated with a consistent methodology across multimodel simulations and four reanalysis data sets (ERA40, ERA‐Interim, NCEP/NCAR, and NCEP‐DOE) and are made available at the ETCCDI indices archive website. Our analyses show that the CMIP5 models are generally able to simulate climate extremes and their trend patterns as represented by the indices in comparison to a gridded observational indices data set (HadEX2). The spread amongst CMIP5 models for several temperature indices is reduced compared to CMIP3 models, despite the larger number of models participating in CMIP5. Some improvements in the CMIP5 ensemble relative to CMIP3 are also found in the representation of the magnitude of precipitation indices. We find substantial discrepancies between the reanalyses, indicating considerable uncertainties regarding their simulation of extremes. The overall performance of individual models is summarized by a “portrait” diagram based on root‐mean‐square errors of model climatologies for each index and model relative to four reanalyses. This metric analysis shows that the median model climatology outperforms individual models for all indices, but the uncertainties related to the underlying reference data sets are reflected in the individual model performance metrics.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Atmospheres data product suite includes three algorithms applied to retrieve midvisible aerosol optical depth (AOD): the Enhanced Deep Blue (DB) and Dark Target (DT) algorithms over land, and a DT over‐water algorithm. All three have been refined in the recent “Collection 6” (C6) MODIS reprocessing. In particular, DB has been expanded to cover vegetated land surfaces as well as brighter desert/urban areas. Additionally, a new “merged” data set which draws from all three algorithms is included in the C6 products. This study is intended to act as a point of reference for new and experienced MODIS data users with which to understand the global and regional characteristics of the C6 DB, DT, and merged data sets, based on MODIS Aqua data. This includes validation against Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations at 111 sites, focused toward regional and categorical (surface/aerosol type) analysis. Neither algorithm consistently outperforms the other, although in many cases the retrieved AOD and the level of its agreement with AERONET are very similar. In many regions the DB, DT, and merged data sets are all suitable for quantitative applications, bearing in mind that they cannot be considered independent, while in other cases one algorithm does consistently outperform the other. Usage recommendations and caveats are thus somewhat complicated and regionally dependent.

The radiative effects of Saharan dust aerosols are investigated in the NASA GEOS‐5 atmospheric general circulation model. A sectional aerosol microphysics model (CARMA) is run online in GEOS‐5. CARMA treats the dust aerosol lifecycle, and its tracers are radiatively coupled to GEOS‐5. A series of AMIP‐style simulations are performed, in which input dust optical properties (particle shape and refractive index) are varied. Simulated dust distributions for summertime Saharan dust compare well to observations, with best results found when the most absorbing dust optical properties are assumed. Dust absorption leads to a strengthening of the summertime Hadley cell circulation, increased dust lofting to higher altitudes, and a strengthening of the African easterly jet, resulting in increased dust atmospheric lifetime and farther northward and westward transport. We find a positive feedback of dust radiative forcing on emissions, in contrast with previous studies, which we attribute to our having a relatively strong longwave forcing caused by our simulating larger effective particle sizes. This longwave forcing reduces the magnitude of midday net surface cooling relative to other studies, and leads to a nighttime warming that results in higher nighttime wind speeds and dust emissions. The radiative effects of dust particle shape have only minor impact on transport and emissions, with small (~5%) impact on top of atmosphere shortwave forcing, in line with previous studies, but relatively more pronounced effects on shortwave atmospheric heating and surface forcing (~20% increase in atmospheric forcing for spheroids). Shape effects on longwave heating terms are of order ~10%.

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi National Polar‐orbiting Partnership (S‐NPP) satellite incorporates fire‐sensitive channels, including a dual‐gain high‐saturation temperature 4 µm channel, enabling active fire detection and characterization. The active fire product, based on the 750 m moderate resolution “M” bands of VIIRS, is one of the standard operational products generated by the Interface Data Processing Segment of the S‐NPP ground system. The product builds on an earlier “Collection 4” version of the algorithm used for processing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Following postlaunch quality assessments and corrections in the input VIIRS Sensor Data Record data processing, an initial low detection bias was removed and the product achieved Beta quality in April 2012. Daily spurious detections along‐scan lines were also significantly reduced as a result of further processing improvements in October 2012. Direct product comparison with MODIS over 4 months of data in 2013 has shown that VIIRS produces approximately 26% more detections than MODIS within the central 3 pixel VIIRS aggregation zone of approximately ±31° scan angle range and 70% more detections outside of that zone, mainly as a result of the superior VIIRS scanning and sampling characteristics. Further development is in progress to ensure high‐quality VIIRS fire products that continue the MODIS data record and better serve the user community by delivering a full image classification product and fire radiative power retrievals. Research is also underway to take advantage of the radiometric signal from the 375 m VIIRS imager “I” bands.

Arctic regional climate is influenced by the radiative impact of aerosol black carbon (BC) both in the atmosphere and deposited on the snow and ice covered surfaces. The NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies) global atmospheric transport model was used, with BC emissions from mid‐latitude fossil fuel and biomass burning source regions, to simulate BC concentrations with 16 year period. The model‐simulated BC agreed well with the BC observations, including the trends and seasonality, at three Arctic sites: Alert (Nunavut, Canada), Barrow (Alaska, USA), and Zepplin, Ny‐Ålesund (Svalbard, Norway). The equivalent black carbon (EBC, absorption inferred BC) observations at the three Arctic locations showed an overall decline of 40% from 1990 to 2009; with most change occurring during early 1990s. Model simulations confirmed declining influence on near surface BC contribution by 70% , and atmospheric BC burden by one half from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) BC source region over 16 years. In contrast, the BC contribution from the East Asia (EA) region has little influence at the surface but atmospheric Arctic BC burden increased by 3 folds. Modelled dry deposition is dominant in the Arctic during wintertime, while wet deposition prevails at all latitudes during summer. Sensitivity analyses on the dry and wet deposition schemes indicate that parameterizations need to be refined to improve on the model performance. There are limitations in the model due to simplified parameterizations and remaining model uncertainties, which requires further exploration of source region contributions, especially from growing EA source region to Arctic BC levels in the future is warranted.

Through an analysis of multiple global fossil fuel CO₂ emission data sets, Vulcan emission data for the United States, Canada's National Inventory Report, and NO₂ variability based on satellite observations, we derive scale factors that can be applied to global emission data sets to represent weekly and diurnal CO₂ emission variability. This is important for inverse modeling and data assimilation of CO₂, which use in situ or satellite measurements subject to variability on these time scales. Model simulations applying the weekly and diurnal scaling show that, although the impacts are minor far away from sources, surface atmospheric CO₂ is perturbed by up to 1.5−8 ppm and column‐averaged CO₂ is perturbed by 0.1−0.5 ppm over some major cities, suggesting the magnitude of model biases for urban areas when these modes of temporal variability are not represented. In addition, we also derive scale factors to account for the large per capita differences in CO₂ emissions between Canadian provinces that arise from differences in per capita energy use and the proportion of energy generated by methods that do not emit CO₂, which are not accounted for in population‐based global emission data sets. The resulting products of these analyses are global 0.25° × 0.25° gridded scale factor maps that can be applied to global fossil fuel CO₂ emission data sets to represent weekly and diurnal variability and 1° × 1° scale factor maps to redistribute spatially emissions from two common global data sets to account for differences in per capita emissions within Canada.

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor was launched 28 October 2011 on the Suomi National Polar‐orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. VIIRS has 22 spectral bands covering the spectrum between 0.412 µm and 12.01 µm, including 16 moderate resolution bands (M‐bands) with a nominal spatial resolution of 750 m at nadir, five imaging resolution bands (I‐bands) with a nominal spatial resolution of 375 m at nadir, and a day‐night band (DNB) with a near‐constant nominal 750 m spatial resolution throughout the scan. These bands are located in a visible and near‐infrared focal plane assembly (FPA), a shortwave and midwave infrared FPA, and a long‐wave infrared FPA. All bands, except the DNB, are coregistered for proper environmental data records retrievals. Observations from VIIRS instrument provide long‐term measurements of biogeophysical variables for climate research and polar satellite data stream for the operational community's use in weather forecasting and disaster relief and other applications. Well Earth‐located (geolocated) instrument data are important to retrieving accurate biogeophysical variables. This paper describes prelaunch pointing and alignment measurements, and the two sets of on‐orbit correction of geolocation errors, the first of which corrected error from 1300 m to within 75 m (20% I‐band pixel size) and the second of which fine‐tuned scan‐angle dependent errors, bringing VIIRS geolocation products to high maturity in one and a half years of the SNPP VIIRS on‐orbit operations. Prelaunch calibration and the on‐orbit characterization of sensor spatial impulse responses and band‐to‐band coregistration are also described.

The South American low‐level jet (SALLJ) east of the Andes plays an important role in regional weather and hydrology by transporting large amounts of moisture from the Amazon to the subtropics. A new methodology is introduced for detecting SALLJ events based on seasonal‐percentile thresholds of wind speed and wind shear. Direct comparisons are made between new and conventional fixed‐threshold methods. Identification of SALLJ events is compared between five different reanalysis products and validated against available radiosonde observations. A new climatology of the SALLJ is presented for one particular reanalysis during a 38‐year period (1979–2016). Based on this new definition, the present study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of the SALLJ on seasonal and interannual timescales, as well as trends in the jet over recent decades. Results show that the interannual variability of the jet's strength and frequency is significantly modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, especially during spring. Trends in the vertically integrated moisture transport during SALLJ days reveal significant increases in the northwesterly moisture flux associated with the jet toward southern Brazil in spring, summer, and fall. These changes likely contribute to the increase in precipitation and extreme precipitation events observed over southeastern South America in recent decades.