Journal of Economic Perspectives
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Structural Reform of Social Security
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 19 Số 2 - Trang 33-55 - 2005
GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics ARCH and GARCH models have become important tools in the analysis of time series data, particularly in financial applications. These models are especially useful when the goal of the study is to analyze and forecast volatility. This paper gives the motivation behind the simplest GARCH model and illustrates its usefulness in examining portfolio risk. Extensions are briefly discussed.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 15 Số 4 - Trang 157-168 - 2001
Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis? How well equipped are today’s macroprudential regimes to deal with a rerun of the factors that led to the global financial crisis? To address the factors that made the last crisis so severe, a macroprudential regulator would need to implement policies to tackle vulnerabilities from financial system leverage, fragile funding structures, and the build-up in household indebtedness. We specify and calibrate a package of policy interventions to address these vulnerabilities—policies that include implementing the countercyclical capital buffer, requiring that banks extend the maturity of their funding, and restricting mortgage lending at high loan-to-income multiples. We then assess how well placed are two prominent macroprudential regulators, set up since the crisis, to implement such a package. The US Financial Stability Oversight Council has not been designed to implement such measures and would therefore make little difference were we to experience a rerun of the factors that preceded the last crisis. A macroprudential regulator modeled on the UK’s Financial Policy Committee stands a better chance because it has many of the necessary powers. But it too would face challenges associated with spotting build-ups in risk with sufficient prescience, acting sufficiently aggressively, and maintaining political backing for its actions.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 33 Số 1 - Trang 107-130 - 2019
What Do We Know about the Evolution of Top Wealth Shares in the United States? I discuss available evidence about the evolution of top wealth shares in the United States over the course of the 20th century. The three main approaches—the Survey of Consumer Finances, estate tax multiplier, and capitalization methods—generate generally consistent findings until mid-1980s but diverge since then, with the capitalization method showing a dramatic increase in wealth concentration and the other two methods showing at best a small increase. I discuss strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The increase in capitalization estimates since 2000 is driven by a dramatic and puzzling increase in fixed income assets. There is evidence that estate tax estimates may not be sufficiently accounting for mortality improvements over time. The nonresponse and coverage issues in the SCF are a concern. I conclude that the changing nature of top incomes and the increased importance of self-made wealth may explain difficulties in implementing each of the methods and why the results diverge.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 29 Số 1 - Trang 47-66 - 2015
Fluctuations in Uncertainty Uncertainty is an amorphous concept. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of firms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries—developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 28 Số 2 - Trang 153-176 - 2014
Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization While the precise causes of postwar trade growth are not well understood, declines in transport costs top the lists of usual suspects. However, there is remarkably little systematic evidence documenting the decline. This paper brings to bear an eclectic mix of data in order to provide a detailed accounting of the time-series pattern of shipping costs. The ad-valorem impact of ocean shipping costs is not much lower today than in the 1950s, with technological advances largely trumped by adverse cost shocks. In contrast, air shipping costs have dropped an order of magnitude, and airborne trade has grown rapidly as a result. As a result, international trade has also experienced a significant rise in speed.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 21 Số 3 - Trang 131-154 - 2007
Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others Existing proposals to escape from a liquidity trap and deflation, including my “Foolproof Way,” are discussed in the light of the optimal way to escape. The optimal way involves three elements: (1) an explicit central-bank commitment to a higher future price level; (2) a concrete action that demonstrates the central bank's commitment, induces expectations of a higher future price level and jump-starts the economy; and (3) an exit strategy that specifies when and how to get back to normal. A currency depreciation is a direct consequence of expectations of a higher future price level and hence an excellent indicator of those expectations. Furthermore, an intentional currency depreciation and a crawling peg, as in the Foolproof Way, can implement the optimal way and, in particular, induce the desired expectations of a higher future price level. I conclude that the Foolproof Way is likely to work well for Japan, which is in a liquidity trap now, as well as for the euro area and the United States, in case either would fall into a liquidity trap in the future.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 17 Số 4 - Trang 145-166 - 2003
Halving Global Poverty The Millennium Development Goals—global targets that the world's leaders set at the Millennium Summit in September 2000—are an ambitious agenda for reducing poverty. As a central plank, these goals include halving the proportion of people living below a dollar a day from around 30 percent of the developing world’s population in 1990 to 15 percent by 2015—a reduction in the absolute number of poor of around one billion. This paper examines what economic research can tell us about how to fulfill these goals. It begins by discussing poverty trends on a global scale—where the poor are located in the world and how their numbers have been changing over time. It then discusses the relationship of economic growth and income distribution to poverty reduction. Finally, it suggests an evidence-based agenda for poverty reduction in the developing world.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 17 Số 3 - Trang 3-22 - 2003
Tobacco At the Crossroads: The Past and Future of Smoking Regulation in the United States The past five years have seen a dramatic turn of events against the tobacco industry, raising the question of the appropriate future path for smoking policy in the U.S. This paper discusses the theory and evidence on regulation of smoking. I begin by reviewing the background on this industry. I then turn to a discussion of the motivations for regulating smoking, both external and internal to the smoker. I review the evidence on the effects of existing regulations. And I conclude with a discussion of future policy directions.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 15 Số 2 - Trang 193-212 - 2001
Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle The equity premium is the difference in returns between equities and fixed income securities, such as Treasury bills. The puzzle refers to the fact that the premium has historically been very large--about 6 percent per year--too large to be easily explained by risk aversion. The authors document the evidence for the puzzle and find that is exists in many countries, over long time periods, and does not seem to be explained by survivorship bias. They also summarize several theoretical explanations. The authors conclude that it is difficult to explain the equity premium without incorporating some kind of irrationality.
Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 11 Số 1 - Trang 191-200 - 1997
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