Journal of Applied Econometrics
1099-1255
0883-7252
Anh Quốc
Cơ quản chủ quản: WILEY , John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Lĩnh vực:
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)Economics and Econometrics
Các bài báo tiêu biểu
Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships Abstract This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend‐ or first‐difference stationary. The proposed tests are based on standardF ‐ andt ‐statistics used to test the significance of the lagged levels of the variables in a univariate equilibrium correction mechanism. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are non‐standard under the null hypothesis that there exists no level relationship, irrespective of whether the regressors areI (0) orI (1). Two sets of asymptotic critical values are provided: one when all regressors are purelyI (1) and the other if they are all purelyI (0). These two sets of critical values provide a band covering all possible classifications of the regressors into purelyI (0), purelyI (1) or mutually cointegrated. Accordingly, various bounds testing procedures are proposed. It is shown that the proposed tests are consistent, and their asymptotic distribution under the null and suitably defined local alternatives are derived. The empirical relevance of the bounds procedures is demonstrated by a re‐examination of the earnings equation included in the UK Treasury macroeconometric model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 16 Số 3 - Trang 289-326 - 2001
A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence Abstract A number of panel unit root tests that allow for cross‐section dependence have been proposed in the literature that use orthogonalization type procedures to asymptotically eliminate the cross‐dependence of the series before standard panel unit root tests are applied to the transformed series. In this paper we propose a simple alternative where the standard augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) regressions are augmented with the cross‐section averages of lagged levels and first‐differences of the individual series. New asymptotic results are obtained both for the individual cross‐sectionally augmented ADF (CADF) statistics and for their simple averages. It is shown that the individual CADF statistics are asymptotically similar and do not depend on the factor loadings. The limit distribution of the average CADF statistic is shown to exist and its critical values are tabulated. Small sample properties of the proposed test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments. The proposed test is applied to a panel of 17 OECD real exchange rate series as well as to log real earnings of households in the PSID data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 22 Số 2 - Trang 265-312 - 2007
Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models Abstract In a recent paper, Bai and Perron (1998 ) considered theoretical issues related to the limiting distribution of estimators and test statistics in the linear model with multiple structural changes. In this companion paper, we consider practical issues for the empirical applications of the procedures. We first address the problem of estimation of the break dates and present an efficient algorithm to obtain global minimizers of the sum of squared residuals. This algorithm is based on the principle of dynamic programming and requires at most least‐squares operations of order O (T 2 ) for any number of breaks. Our method can be applied to both pure and partial structural change models. Second, we consider the problem of forming confidence intervals for the break dates under various hypotheses about the structure of the data and the errors across segments. Third, we address the issue of testing for structural changes under very general conditions on the data and the errors. Fourth, we address the issue of estimating the number of breaks. Finally, a few empirical applications are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures. All methods discussed are implemented in a GAUSS program. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 18 Số 1 - Trang 1-22 - 2003
Multivariate GARCH models: a survey Abstract This paper surveys the most important developments in multivariate ARCH‐type modelling. It reviews the model specifications and inference methods, and identifies likely directions of future research. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 21 Số 1 - Trang 79-109 - 2006
Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity Abstract I study a simple, widely applicable approach to handling the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear unobserved effects models. Rather than attempting to obtain the joint distribution of all outcomes of the endogenous variables, I propose finding the distribution conditional on the initial value (and the observed history of strictly exogenous explanatory variables). The approach is flexible, and results in simple estimation strategies for at least three leading dynamic, nonlinear models: probit, Tobit and Poisson regression. I treat the general problem of estimating average partial effects, and show that simple estimators exist for important special cases. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 20 Số 1 - Trang 39-54 - 2005
THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL SUMMARY We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply. The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003–2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990. Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003–2008 oil price surge. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short‐run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 29 Số 3 - Trang 454-478 - 2014
GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE SCORE MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS SUMMARY We propose a class of observation‐driven time series models referred to as generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. This new approach provides a unified and consistent framework for introducing time‐varying parameters in a wide class of nonlinear models. The GAS model encompasses other well‐known models such as the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, autoregressive conditional duration, autoregressive conditional intensity, and Poisson count models with time‐varying mean. In addition, our approach can lead to new formulations of observation‐driven models. We illustrate our framework by introducing new model specifications for time‐varying copula functions and for multivariate point processes with time‐varying parameters. We study the models in detail and provide simulation and empirical evidence. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 28 Số 5 - Trang 777-795 - 2013
Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach Abstract This paper estimates a DSGE model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the US and the euro area economy over a common sample period (1974–2002). The structural estimation methodology allows us to investigate whether differences in business cycle behaviour are due to differences in the type of shocks that affect the two economies, differences in the propagation mechanism of those shocks, or differences in the way the central bank responds to those economic developments. Our main conclusion is that each of these characteristics is remarkably similar across both currency areas. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 20 Số 2 - Trang 161-183 - 2005
How do respondents process stated choice experiments? Attribute consideration under varying information load Abstract The popularity of stated choice (SC) experiments has produced many design strategies in which researchers use increasingly more ‘complex’ choice settings to study choice behaviour. When the amount of information to assess increases, we wonder how an individual handles such information in making a choice. Defining the amount of information as the number of attributes associated with each choice set, we investigate how this information is processed as we vary its ‘complexity’. Four ordered heterogeneous logit models are developed, each for an SC design based on a fixed number of attributes, in which the dependent variable defines the number of attributes that are ignored. We find that the degree to which individuals ignore attributes is influenced by the dimensionality of the SC experiment, the deviation of attribute levels from an experienced reference alternative, the use of ‘adding up’ attributes where feasible, the number of choice sets evaluated, and the personal income of the respondent. The empirical evidence supports the view that individuals appear to adopt a range of ‘coping’ strategies that are consistent with how they process information in real markets, and that aligning ‘choice complexity’ with the amount of information to process is potentially misleading. Relevancy is what matters. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tập 21 Số 6 - Trang 861-878 - 2006