Risk-opportunity analyses and production peak forecasting on world conventional oil and gas perspectives

Elsevier BV - Tập 7 - Trang 136-146 - 2010
Jian Zhang1,2,3, Zandong Sun1,2, Yiwei Zhang1,2, Youshun Sun3, Toksoz Nafi3
1Lab for Integration of Geology and Geophysics, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, China
2State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, China
3Earth Resources Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA

Tóm tắt

To investigate the situation of conventional oil and gas, this paper examines the global oil and gas discoveries, proved reserves, production, consumption and price. All the influencing factors can be subjected to risk and opportunity analyses, so in the paper, we build upon a risk-opportunity analysis framework, which is a new train of thought. To forecast the peak time of oil and gas production, we used the methods of multi-Hubbert model forecasting and data forecasting. Our results showed that the world oil production will reach a peak between 2010 and 2015 and the gas production will reach a peak around 2030 Oil peak is coming and gas peak is on the way. The main purpose of forecasting oil and gas production peak is give people enough time for preparing mitigation and adaptation plans. This means taking decisive action well before the problem is obvious.

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Elsevier BV

Tập 7

136-146

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