Resources and future supply of oil

Energy Policy - Tập 37 - Trang 441-464 - 2009
Jan Kjärstad1, Filip Johnsson1
1Department of Energy and Environment, Energy Conversion, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden

Tài liệu tham khảo

AAPG (American Association of Petroleum Geologists), 2003. Giant oil and gas fields of the decade 1990–1999. Adelman, M.A., 2003. Comment on: R.W. Bentley, Global oil & gas depletion. Energy Policy 30, 2002; Energy Policy 31, 2003. Air Force Link, 2008. SECAF discusses alternative energy initiatives at conference. Press release 25 April 2008 on speech by Secretary of the Air Force (SECAF) Michael W Wynne. Available on 〈www.af.mil〉. Aker Kvaerner, 2007. Subsea Boosting Systems. Available on 〈www.akerkvaerner.com〉. Aleklett and Campbell, 2006. World Watch Volume 19, Number 1, January/February 2006. The peak and decline of world oil and gas production. ARAI, 2007. Alternative biofuels scenario in India. Presentation held at the SAE International Fuels and Emissions Conference in Cape Town, January 23–25, 2007. ASPO, 2006. Saudi Arabia revisited. ASPO Newsletter 66, June 2006. ASPO (The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas), 2007a. See 〈www.peakoil.net〉. ASPO, 2007b. Personal communication with Kjell Aleklett, President ASPO. Australian Government, 2008. Minister for Resources and Energy. UN confirms Australia's rights over extra 2.5 million square kilometres of seabed. Press release dated 21 April 2008. Bakhtiari Samsam, 2006. Hearings for the Australian Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport References Committee on Australia's future oil supply and alternative transport fuels, 11 July 2006. Bentley, 2002, Global oil & gas depletion: An overview, Energy Policy BGS (British Geological Survey), 2008. Available on 〈www.bgs.ac.uk/falklands-oil/nfb.htm〉. BHP Billiton, 2007. BHP Billiton acquires exploration and production rights offshore the Falkland Islands. Press release dated 2 October 2007. BLM (Bureau of Land Management), 2008. US Department of Interior. Press release dated 22 July 2008. Bloomberg, 2008. Oil falls more than US$4 as China announces fuel price increase. Press release dated 19 June 2008. BP (British Petroleum), 2006. BP statistical review of world energy, June 2006 BP (British Petroleum), 2007a. BP statistical review of world energy June 2007. BP (British Petroleum), 2007b. Upstream Major Projects. Available on 〈www.bp.com〉. BP (British Petroleum), 2008. British Petroleum. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008. Campbell, C.J., 2006. Middle East oil—reality and illusion 〈www.peakoil.net〉. CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), 2005. CERA at a testimony before the US House Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee, 7 December 2005. CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), 2006. Press Release, 14 November 2006. Peak Oil Theory—“World Running Out of Oil Soon”—Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate. CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), 2008a. Press Release, 17 January 2008. No Evidence of Precipitous Fall on Horizon for World Oil Production: Global 4.5% Decline Rate Means No Near-Term Peak. CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), 2008b. Press Release, 14 May 2008. Cost of Constructing New Oil and Gas Facilities Reaches New High. CGES (Centre for Global Energy Studies), 2006. The oil market—key questions. Presentation held at Cantor Index Forum, London, 29 June 2006. ChevronTexaco, 2008. 2007 Supplement to the Annual Report. Available on 〈www.chevron.com〉. CIAB (Coal Industry Advisory Board), 2006. Coal to liquids—an alternative oil supply. Workshop report, November 2006. CIBC, 2008. “The age of scarcity”? Press release dated 24 April 2008. CNEB (Canada National Energy Board), 2006. Canada's oil sands. An update on opportunities and challenges to 2015. DOE (US Department of Energy), 2004. America's oil shale. A roadmap for federal decision making. Available on 〈http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/NPR_Oil_Shale_Program.html〉. DOE (US Department of Energy), 2005. US crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids reserves—2004 annual report. DOE (US Department of Energy), 2006. 〈http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/eor/Ten_Basin-Oriented_CO2-EOR_Assessments.html〉. EC (European Commission), 2008. Directorate General for Energy and Transport, European Commission. EU Energy and Transport in Figures. 2007/2008 Statistical Pocketbook. EIA (US Energy Information Agency), 2006. International Energy Outlook 2006. EIA (US Energy Information Agency), 2007a. International Energy Outlook 2007. EIA (US Energy Information Agency), 2007b. Personal communication with Mir Yousufuddin, Reserves and Production Division. EIA (US Energy Information Agency), 2008. International Energy Outlook 2008. EIA CAB (US Energy Information Agency, Country Analysis Briefs), Available on 〈http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/index.html〉. EPRINC (Energy Policy Research Foundation Inc.), 2008. World petroleum markets—what the past tells us about the future. Senate staff briefing Capitol Hill, 23 June 2008. Eurobserver, 2006. Eurobserver's 2006 biofuels barometer. EWG (Energy Watch Group), 2007. Crude oil—the supply outlook. Available on 〈www.energywatchgroup.com〉. ExxonMobil, 2006a. Annual report 2006. Available on 〈www.exxonmobil.com〉. ExxonMobil, 2006b. ExxonMobil enters into farm-in agreement to explore deepwater potential off Philippine Islands. Press release, 5 December 2006. ExxonMobil, 2007a. The outlook for energy, a view to 2030 〈www.exxonmobil.com〉. ExxonMobil, 2007b. ExxonMobil signs EPSA IV agreement for exploration in offshore Sirte basin. Press release, 7 February 2007. Fugro Robertson, 2000. World conventional hydrocarbon resources. How much remains to be discovered and where is it? Presentation held at the 16th World Petroleum Congress, Calgary. Futurecoalfuels, 2008. 24 March 2008 Newsletter 〈www.futurecoalfuels.org〉. GeoArabia, 2006. The debate over Hubberts peak: a review. GeoArabia, vol. 11, no. 2. Available on 〈www.gulfpetrolink.net〉. Global Insight, 2007. ExxonMobil and QP abandon Palm GTL project due to escalating costs. Same-Day Analysis, 21 February 2007. Goldman Sachs, 2008. $100 Oil Reality, Part 2: Has the Super-spike End Game Begun? 〈www2.goldmansachs.com〉. Grace, 2005 Horn, Myron, 2008. Personal communications with Myron Horn during July 2008. Myron Horn compiles the tables of giant fields for AAPG. Hydro, 2006. 〈www.hydro.com〉—The Troll story. IEA (International Energy Agency), 2003. World Energy Outlook 2003. IEA (International Energy Agency), 2004. World Energy Outlook 2004. IEA (International Energy Agency), 2005a. From resources to reserves. IEA (International Energy Agency), 2005b. World Energy Outlook 2005. IEA (International Energy Agency), 2006. . World Energy Outlook 2006. IEA (International Energy Agency), 2007. World Energy Outlook 2007. IEA (International Energy Agency), 2008. International Energy Agency. “Energy Technology Perspectives 2008”. IEA CCC (International Energy Agency Clean Coal Centre), 2007. Coal supply challenges for China. IEA OMR (International Energy Agency), 2006. Monthly Oil Market Reports, January–December 2006. IEA OMR (International Energy Agency), 2007. Monthly Oil Market Reports, January–December 2007. IEA OMR (International Energy Agency), 2008a. Monthly Oil Market Reports, January–June 2008. IEA OMR (International Energy Agency), 2008b. Medium Term Oil Market Report, July 2008. IHS, 2006a. IHS Energy. Perspective on oil resource estimates. Presentation at AAPG Hedberg Research Conference, 13–17 November 2006. Available at 〈http://energy.ihs.com/Resource-Center/Presentations/〉. IHS, 2006b. IHS Energy. The exploration dilemma in the age of energy supply anxiety. Presentation at Exploring Exploration Forum, July 2006. Available at: 〈http://energy.ihs.com/Resource-Center/Presentations/〉. IHS, 2006c. IHS Energy. Northern Mexico: current focus, prospects and frontiers. Presentation held at IHS Insights Roundtable, May 2006. IHS, 2006d. IHS Energy. The challenging role for giant fields: can we expect giant fields to meet increasing oil demand? Presentation held at AAPG Forum April 2006. Available at 〈http://energy.ihs.com/Resource-Center/Presentations/〉. IHS, 2006e. IHS Energy. Falkland Islands may hold potential as new petroleum province. The American Oil and Gas Reporter, November 2006. Available at 〈http://energy.ihs.com〉. IHS, 2006f. IHS Energy. The exploration dilemma in the age of energy supply anxiety. Presentation at Exploring Exploration Forum, July 2006. Available at: 〈http://energy.ihs.com〉. IHS, 2007a. IHS Energy. Growth of world oil fields. Presentation held by Keith King at IHS London symposium. 17–18 April 2007. Available on 〈http://energy.ihs.com〉. IHS, 2007b. IHS Energy. Personal communication with Ken Chew, IHS Energy, January 12, 2007. IHS, 2007c. IHS Energy. Russia 2007—can Russia remain a prime oil/gas supplier? Presentation held by Theodor Felder at IHS London Symposium, 17–18 April 2007. Available on 〈http://energy.ihs.com〉. IHS, 2007d. IHS Energy. IHS launches first detailed report on Iraq's oil reserves and production potential since start of Iraq conflict. Press release, 18 April 2007. IHS, 2007e. IHS Energy. Africa E&P: new realities in 2007. Presentation held at North American Prospect Expo (NAPE) 1 January 2007. Available on 〈http://energy.ihs.com〉. IHS, 2007f. IHS Energy. Latin America—current E&P realities. Presentation held at North American Prospect Expo (NAPE) 1 January 2007. IHS, 2007g. IHS Energy. New Zealand. Lease sale promotion. Available on 〈http://energy.ihs.com〉. IMF (International Monetary Fund), 2008a. The role of policies to foster oil sector investment in a global context. Presentation held by J. Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund at the 11th Energy Forum/Third International Energy Business Forum, Rome, Italy, 20–22 April 2008. IMF(International Monetary Fund), 2008b. World Economic Outlook Database. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Fourth Assessment Report. Available on 〈www.ipcc.ch〉. Ithaca Energy, 2007. Presentation, 10 August 2007, available on company website 〈www.ithacaenergy.com〉. Laherrere, J., 2006. Uncertainty on data and forecasts. Published at ASPO's Fifth Annual Conference, San Rossore, Italy, 18–19 July 2006. Lundin Petroleum, 2008. 〈www.lundin-petroleum.com〉. Mabro, 2006 Milov, V., 2008. Director, Institute of Energy Policy, Moscow. Russian Energy Outlook—Implications for Strategic Investments. Presentation at the New York Energy Forum, 15 May 2008. Monash Energy, 2008. 〈www.monashenergy.com.au〉. Nehring, R., 2006. Does the Hubbert method provide a reliable means of predicting future oil production? Available on the web site of the Energy Policy Research Foundation Inc. (EPRINC) 〈www.eprinc.org〉. NGU (Norwegian Geological Survey), 2006. 〈www.ngu.no〉. Noble Energy, 2008. Presentation at Deutsche Bank Energy and Utilities Conference, 28–29 May 2008. Available from 〈www.nobleenergyinc.com〉. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate), 2006. Facts—The Norwegian Petroleum Sector 2006. Available from 〈www.npd.no〉. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate), 2008. Facts pages, available from 〈www.npd.no〉. ODAC (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre), 2006. See overview at ODAC's web site 〈www.odac-info.org〉. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), 2008. OECD Factbook 2008. O&GJ (Oil and Gas Journal), 2005. Worldwide production 2004.Oil and Gas Journal 103(47) (19 December 2005). O&GJ (Oil and Gas Journal), 2006. Worldwide look at reserves and production 2006. Oil and Gas Journal 104(47) (18 December 2006). O&GJ (Oil and Gas Journal), 2007a. Magnitude of undiscovered resources in Iraq's western desert in dispute. Oil and Gas Journal 105(25) (2 July 2007). O&GJ (Oil and Gas Journal), 2007b. Oil and Gas Journal. Worldwide look at reserves and production 2007. vol. 105(48), December 24, 2007. O&GJ (Oil and Gas Journal), 2007c. Leases issued for five oil shale projects. Oil and Gas Journal 105(1) (1 January 2007). OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), 2007. Selected Upstream Projects at 〈www.opec.org〉. PDO (Petroleum Development Oman), 2006. Annual Report 2005. Pemex, 2007a. Statistical Yearbook 2007. Available on 〈www.pemex.com〉. Pemex, 2007b. Value creation through knowledge, technology and project management—synergies in the oil and gas sector of Mexico–Norway. Available on Pemex website 〈http://www.pemex.comwww.pemex.com〉. Petrobras, 2007. Analysis of the Tupi area. Press release dated 8 November 2007. Petrochina, 2007. Petrochina press release 3 May 2007. Platts, 2008. Platts Daily Energy Bulletin July 8, 2008. EU Committee rejects 2020 biofuels target, favors electric cars. Rand, 2005. Rand Corporation. Oil shale development in the United States. Prospects and policy issues. Rentech, 2008. Presentation at the Wall Street Analyst Forum 19th Annual Institutional Alternative Energy & Clean Technology Investor Conference, 26 March 2008. Robelius, F., 2007. Giant oilfields—the highway to oil. Giant oilfields and their importance for future oil production. Ph.D. Thesis, Faculty of Science and Technology, Uppsala University, Sweden. Rosneft, 2006. Available at 〈www.rosneft.com/Upstream/Reserves/#〉. Sasol Chevron, 2006. Synthetic fuels: Product properties and supply potential. Presentation held by M. Schnell, Sasol Chevron at Madrid Motor Show, 30 May 2006. Saudi Aramco, 2004. Fifty year crude oil supply scenarios: Saudi Aramco's perspective. Presentation held at Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 24 February 2004. Saudi Aramco, 2007. Year 2007 Review. Available on 〈www.saudiaramco.com〉. SEC, 2008. US Securities and Exchange Commission. SEC proposes rule changes to modernize oil and gas reporting requirements. Press release dated 26 June 2008. Shell, 2005. Oil shale and oil sands resource hearing. Testimony before the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee by S. Mut, CEO of Unconventional Resources, Shell, 12 April 2005. Shell, 2006. The Mahogany research project 〈www.shell.com/us/mahogany〉. Simmons, 2005. Matthew R. Simmons. Twilight in the desert. The coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy. SPE (Society of Petroleum Engineers), 2007. Petroleum Resources Management System. Available on 〈www.spe.org〉. Statoil, 2007. The Tordis IOR Project. Paper presented at the 2007 Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, TX, 30 April–3 May 2007. Statoil, 2008a. Hidden oil on the Gullfaks field. StatoilHydro, Press Release on 1 July 2008. Statoil, 2008b. Value capture and growth. Presentation held by D. Nunn, Head of strategy and acquisitions, at UBS Global Oil & Gas Conference, Austin, TX, 22 May 2008. Sun, Qingyun, 2008. CTL development in China. Presentation by Qingyun Sun, US–China Energy Center, West Virginia University, during a Congressional Briefing on 24 April 2008. SUSRIS, 2008. Saudi–US Relations Information Service. Jeddah Energy Meeting: The Saudi Perspective. 27 June 2008. Syntroleum Corporation, 2007. Sinopec and Syntroleum announce joint technology development plan. Press Release on 20 February 2007. TGS-NOPEC, 2007. Press release on 2 January 2007. UNPD (United Nations Population Division), 2008. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision. USGS (United States Geological Survey), 2000. 2000 World Petroleum Assessment. Available on 〈www.usgs.gov〉. USGS (United States Geological Survey), 2005. Oil and gas resources of the Arctic Alaska petroleum province. USGS Professional Paper 1732-A. Available on 〈www.usgs.gov〉. USGS (United States Geological Survey), 2006. Geology and Resources of some world oil shale deposits. Scientific Report 2005-5294. Available on 〈www.usgs.gov〉. USGS (United States Geological Survey), 2007a. An evaluation of the USGS WPA 2000—supporting data. Open-File Report 2007-1021. Available on 〈www.usgs.gov〉. USGS (United States Geological Survey), 2007b. Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the east Greenland rift basins province. Available on 〈www.usgs.gov〉. USGS (United States Geological Survey), 2008a. Circum-Arctic resource appraisal: estimates of undiscovered oil and gas north of the Arctic Circle. USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049. Available on 〈www.usgs.gov〉. USGS (United States Geological Survey), 2008b. Assessment of undiscovered oil resources in the Devonian–Mississippian Bakken Formation, Williston Basin Province, Montana and North Dakota, 2008. Fact Sheet 2008-3021. Available on 〈www.usgs.gov〉. US MMS (US Minerals Management Service), 2006. Assessment of undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources of the nation's outer continental shelf, 2006. US NPC (US National Petroleum Council), 2007. Facing the hard truths about energy. A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and antural gas. Draft Report, 18 July 2007. Valiant Petroleum Plc., 2008. Interim results to March 30, 2008 dated June 2008. Available on company website 〈www.valiant-petroleum.com〉. WEC (World Energy Council), 2004. 2004 Survey of Energy Resources. Available on 〈www.wec.org〉. WEC (World Energy Council), 2007. 2007 Survey of Energy Resources. Available on 〈www.wec.org〉. WoodMac, 2006. Arctic role diminished in world oil supply. Wood Mackenzie, Press Release on 1 November 2006.