Đặc điểm dịch tễ học của bệnh bạch cầu tại Trung Quốc, 2005–2017: phân tích hồi quy log-line và mô hình tuổi-thời kỳ-cohort

BMC Public Health - Tập 23 - Trang 1-12 - 2023
Kangqian Lin1, Huaimiao Jia2, Miao Cao1, Tongtong Xu1, Zuhai Chen1, Xi Song1, Yingfang Miao1, Teng Yao1, Chenxian Dong1, Jianjiang Shao1, Heng Guo1,3,4,5, Yunhua Hu1,3,4,5, Yizhong Yan1,3,4,5
1Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, China
2Shihezi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shihezi, China
3Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, China
4Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, China
5Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health, The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Xinjiang, China

Tóm tắt

Bệnh bạch cầu là một mối đe dọa lớn đối với sức khỏe con người, và hiện có tương đối ít nghiên cứu về tỷ lệ mắc, tỷ lệ tử vong và phân tích gánh nặng bệnh bạch cầu ở Trung Quốc. Nghiên cứu này nhằm phân tích tỷ lệ mắc và tỷ lệ tử vong của bệnh bạch cầu tại Trung Quốc trong giai đoạn từ 2005 đến 2017 và ước tính ảnh hưởng của tuổi, thời kỳ và nhóm tuổi, đây là điều kiện tiên quyết quan trọng cho việc phòng ngừa và kiểm soát hiệu quả bệnh bạch cầu. Dữ liệu về tỷ lệ mắc và tỷ lệ tử vong bệnh bạch cầu từ 2005 đến 2017 đã được thu thập từ Báo cáo hàng năm của Đăng ký ung thư Trung Quốc. Mô hình hồi quy Joinpoint được sử dụng để ước tính tỷ lệ thay đổi phần trăm hàng năm trung bình (AAPC) và tỷ lệ thay đổi phần trăm hàng năm (APC) theo xu hướng thời gian. Mô hình tuổi-thời kỳ-cohort đã được xây dựng để phân tích ảnh hưởng của tuổi tác, thời kỳ và nhóm tuổi. Tỷ lệ mắc bệnh bạch cầu chuẩn theo tuổi là 4.54/100.000 trong giai đoạn từ 2005 đến 2017, cho thấy xu hướng tăng với AAPC là 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3%, 2.5%). Tỷ lệ tử vong chuẩn theo tuổi là 2.91/100.000, cho thấy xu hướng tăng từ 2005 đến 2012 với APC là 2.1% (95% CI: 0.4%, 3.9%) và sau đó là xu hướng giảm từ 2012 đến 2017 với APC là -2.5% (95% CI: -5.3%, 0.3%). Tỷ lệ mắc (tử vong) bạch cầu chuẩn theo tuổi không chỉ cao hơn ở nam giới so với nữ giới, mà còn tăng nhanh hơn. Tỷ lệ mắc bệnh bạch cầu ở vùng nông thôn thấp hơn so với vùng thành phố, nhưng AAPC lại cao hơn 2.2 lần so với khu vực đô thị. Trẻ em từ 0-4 tuổi có nguy cơ mắc bệnh bạch cầu cao hơn. Nguy cơ mắc và tử vong do bệnh bạch cầu tăng theo độ tuổi. Ảnh hưởng thời kỳ của nguy cơ tử vong do bạch cầu cho thấy xu hướng giảm, trong khi ảnh hưởng nhóm tuổi cho thấy xu hướng tăng và sau đó giảm với điểm chuyển là giai đoạn 1955–1959. Tỷ lệ mắc bệnh bạch cầu chuẩn theo tuổi ở Trung Quốc cho thấy xu hướng tăng từ 2005 đến 2017, trong khi tỷ lệ tử vong chuẩn theo tuổi tăng trước rồi giảm vào năm 2012 như một điểm chuyển. Có sự khác biệt theo giới tính và khu vực. Nguy cơ mắc và tử vong do bạch cầu tăng theo độ tuổi. Nguy cơ tử vong vì bệnh bạch cầu đã giảm dần từ 2005 đến 2017. Bệnh bạch cầu vẫn là một vấn đề sức khỏe cộng đồng cần được chú ý liên tục.

Từ khóa

#bệnh bạch cầu #tỷ lệ mắc #tỷ lệ tử vong #mô hình tuổi-thời kỳ-cohort #sức khỏe cộng đồng #Trung Quốc

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