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In the Maghreb and North African regions, the interannual climate variability causes severe impacts on agriculture through long drought episodes. Impacts are expected to increase due to projected climate change. Decreasing water availability will have a direct impact on the agriculture sector and could endanger the socioeconomic development and social stability in Tunisia where rain-fed agriculture represents the main occupancy and means of subsistence for the large rural population.

Future climate change may lead to a substantial loss of biodiversity, particularly affecting mountain regions, including the Alps. Range-size reduction in high mountain plant species is predicted to be more pronounced for endemic species. Investigating the broad temporal spectrum of range shifts is important for the conservation of biodiversity, since learning how species responded to climate change in the past provides useful insights on how they might react to warming trends in the present and future. Using species distribution models and an ensemble forecasting approach, we explored how the distribution of Berardia subacaulis, a monospecific genus endemic of the south-west Alps, may be affected by past and future projected climate change. During the last interglacial, the habitat suitability of Berardia was lower than present and a progressive increase was observed from the last glacial maximum until now. In the future, Berardia appears to lose more than 80 % of its range, becoming endangered by 2050. Our results suggest that Berardia probably survived past warmer periods in situ, expanding its distributional range during cooler periods. The severe future range contraction predicted for Berardia reflects similar results for other endemic species. As Berardia represents an interesting model species to evaluate the effects of climate warming on range size and shifts, demographic and precise range monitoring may be undertaken on this species.

In advancing relational understandings of resilience and adaptive capacity, this paper explores how business networks influence value chain climate resilience and the ability of small businesses to adapt to climate change. The relationship between value chain network attributes (i.e. connectivity and an actor’s centrality) and indicators of value chain resilience (e.g. information sharing, flexibility and redundancy) is investigated through the analysis of qualitative data derived from field interviews and from the quantitative assessment of network metrics characterising information, financial and material flows of three agricultural value chains in Jamaica. The study illustrates how network analysis offers a systematic approach for understanding value chain resilience and the adaptive capacity of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and supports strategy development in business value chains. The study concludes that mixed-methods networked approaches provide valid methods for exploring a relational understanding of climate resilience in value chains, opening up new research opportunities for scholars interested in private sector climate adaptation.

Researchers have become increasingly concerned with the relation between traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and academic ecological knowledge (AEK). TEK includes complex predictive resources that often remain insufficiently reflected in ecological research, conservation practices, and ecosystem services. At the same time, knowledge integration comes with methodological and political challenges of negotiating differences between knowledge systems. In this article, we provide evidence from different scales (population, community, and ecosystems) about how TEK and AEK can be related when addressing the same phenomena. Finally, we discuss the possibilities of relating TEK and AEK through a perspective of complementarity of knowledge, taking existing differences as opportunities for dialogue.

Climate-related uncertainty refers to the inability to predict the scale, intensity, and impact of climate change on human and natural environments. Debates of uncertainty in climate change have emerged as a ‘super wicked’ problem for scientists and policy makers alike. The article draws on ongoing research in different socio-ecological and cultural settings in India (Kutch, the Sundarbans and Mumbai) and introduces the heuristic of the ‘above’, ‘middle’ and ‘below’ to explore how climate change and uncertainty are understood and experienced by diverse actors. Responses from ‘above’ (especially by planners and policy makers) tend to be directed towards controlling uncertainty through top-down, techno-managerial solutions whereas scientists tend to rely on quantitative assessments and models based on probabilistic scenarios. These may have little to do with the experiences and lived realities of local people, especially in the global South, who are often at the frontline of climate change. Also at the local level, climate-related uncertainties seldom stand alone, rather they closely interact with other socio-economic drivers of change that create new uncertainties and vulnerabilities, especially for poor and powerless people constraining their adaptation choices. This article demonstrates deep differences in ways different actors understand and experience climate change and uncertainty. It argues that diverse knowledge and approaches need to be deployed to understand and embrace climate related uncertainties in order to facilitate socially just adaptation.

A hydrodynamic field study of the Segara Anakan lagoon combined with a reconstruction of the recorded data using a three-dimensional numerical model provides insights into the processes driving the hydrodynamics of the lagoon. This includes bathymetry, quantification of water volume fluxes with ADCP measurements, sea level recordings, salinity measurements, water budget and numerical model results for the periods of the field studies. Salinity measurements at the Klaces village show a complete flushing of the western lagoon during neap tide in the rainy season, which is assumed to increase the sedimentation. Mean salinities of the western part are in the order of 10 and 21 g/kg, while the eastern part has a larger mean salinity of 27 and 32 g/kg for the rainy and dry season, respectively. A numerical sensitivity study shows a relationship between the Citanduy discharge and the nett water volume transport between the eastern and western part of Segara Anakan. A nett transport to the west, which differs from neap to spring tides, turns to zero when Citanduy discharges are between 300 and 400 m3/s. The flushing time of the lagoon depends on the monsoon season and is about 1–3 days at the western outlet and increases to 12 days in the central parts.

Planning for the extraction of aggregates is typically dealt with at a case to case basis, without assessing environmental impacts strategically. In this study we assess the impact of sand mining in Poyang Lake, where dredging began in 2001 after sand mining in the Yangtze River had been banned. In April 2008 concern over the impact on the biodiversity led to a ban on sand mining in Poyang Lake until further plans could be developed. Planning will require consideration of both sand extraction in relation to available sediment resources and also environmental impacts within the context of future demand for sand in the lower Yangtze Valley. We used pairs of near-infrared (NIR) Aster satellite imagery to estimate the number of vessels leaving the lake. Based on this we calculated a rate of sand extraction of 236 million m3 year−1 in 2005–2006. This corresponds to 9% of the total Chinese demand for sand. It qualifies Poyang Lake as probably the largest sand mining operation in the world. It also indicates that sand extraction currently dominates the sediment balance of the lower Yangtze River. A positive relation between demand for sand and GDP, revealed by historic data from the USA, suggests that the current per capita demand for sand in China might increase in the near future from 2 to 4 m3 year−1. We review various environmental impacts and question whether it will be possible to preserve the rich biodiversity of the lake, while continuing at the same time satisfying the increasing Chinese demand for sand. Finally we review alternative options for sand mining, in order to relieve the pressure from the Poyang Lake ecosystem.

Extreme regional ocean warming events, like marine heatwaves (MHWs), could have severe and long-lasting impacts on species and ecosystems. Extreme and persistent warming of the ocean could directly threaten survival of marine species, as exceeding their thermal tolerance often leads to massive mortality events. Similarly, MHWs could further threaten species persistence indirectly, by altering food webs, leading to cascading effects that are expected to be more pronounced for species at a lower trophic position. Green turtles, a representative species of the charismatic marine megafauna, are largely herbivorous; thus, their food availability is tightly linked to environmental conditions. Here, we explored the degree to which foraging areas of green turtles along the Southeast Asian region could be subjected to MHWs in the future. For this, we applied a series of climatic niche models to spatially delineate important foraging habitats for adult green turtles, Chelonia mydas, across the marine region of Southeast Asia. Our analysis revealed that marine sites, which could host foraging grounds for adult green turtles, cover around 37% of the Southeast Asian region, with high probability of experiencing prolonged and intense MHWs for the vast majority of these sites. The annual number of days subjected to MHWs could increase by 16-fold from the very recent past period, leading to even a permanent MHW state. These results offer some alarming messages for scientists and conservation planners, highlighting the need to improve our knowledge on the potential response of species to MHWs and design climate adaptation strategies.

Commercial cultivation of kiwifruit in New Zealand is concentrated in a relatively small area of the North Island. Cultivation is economically significant and growing quickly. However, current understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, makes almost exclusive use of linear outcome-oriented frameworks. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with kiwifruit growers and orchard managers, workshops and analysis of secondary data, a “bottom-up” contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. The findings suggest that climate and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects for kiwifruit production and compound existing vulnerabilities. An ageing population and other processes of rural change may also constrain future adaptation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required. The paper demonstrates the need to move beyond outcome-oriented and model-based vulnerability assessments in New Zealand, to consider the broad range of the factors that contribute to vulnerability in the nation’s agricultural sectors. It provides a basis for further consideration of multiple exogenous impacts in the industry and confirms the critical importance of qualitatively vulnerability assessments to determine spatially specific outcomes.