Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 17 Số 6 - Trang 1623-1638 - 2017
Katharina Waha1, Linda Krummenauer1, Sophie Adams2, Valentin Aich1, Florent Baarsch1, Dim Coumou1, Marianela Fader3, Holger Hoff1, Guy Jobbins4, Rachel Marcus4, Matthias Mengel1, Ilona M. Otto1, Mahé Perrette1, Marcia Rocha2, Alexander Robinson1, Carl Schleussner2
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg A 31, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
2Climate Analytics, Friedrichstr 231, 10969, Berlin, Germany
3International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (UNESCO), Federal Institute of Hydrology, P.O. Box 200253, 56002, Koblenz, Germany
4Overseas Development Institute (ODI), 203 Blackfriars Road, London, SE1 8NJ, UK

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Aguirre-Salado CA, Treviño-Garza EJ, Aguirre-Calderón OA, Jiménez-Pérez J, González-Tagle MA, Valdez-Lazalde JR (2012) Desertification-climate change interactions: México’s battle against desertification. In: Mahamane A (ed) Diversity of Ecosystems. InTech, Rijeka. doi: 10.5772/36762

Akbari S (2011) Dust storms, sources in the Middle East and economic model for survey its impacts. Aust J Basic Appl Sci 5(12):227–233

Al-Bakri J, Suleiman A, Abdulla F, Ayad J (2011) Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan. Phys Chem Earth Parts A/B/C 36(5–6):125–134. doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2010.06.001

Al-Riffai P, Breisinger C (2012) Droughts in Syria: an assessment of impacts and options for improving the resilience of the poor. Quarterly J Int Agric 51(1):21–49

Bardsley DK, Hugo GJ (2010) Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making. Popul Environ 32(2–3):238–262. doi: 10.1007/s11111-010-0126-9

Belaroui K, Djediai H, Megdad H (2013) The influence of soil, hydrology, vegetation and climate on desertification in El-Bayadh region (Algeria). Desalination and Water Treat. doi: 10.1080/19443994.2013.782571

Ben-Ahmed K, Aoun K, Jeddi F, Ghrab J, El-Aroui M-A, Bouratbine A (2009) Visceral leishmaniasis in Tunisia: spatial distribution and association with climatic factors. Am J Trop Med Hyg 81(1):40–45

Bigio A (2011) North African coastal cities. Address natural disasters and climate change. Climate Change adaptation and natural disaster preparedness in the coastal cities of North Africa. Summary of the Regional Study. p 28. Washington

Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas DSG (2011a) The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environ Change 21:3–11. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001

Black R, Bennett SRG, Thomas SM, Beddington JR (2011b) Climate change: migration as adaptation. Nature 478(7370):447–449. doi: 10.1038/478477a

Bozkurt D, Sen OL (2013) Climate change impacts in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations. J Hydrol 480:149–161. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.021

Brecht H, Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Murray S, Wheeler D (2012) Sea-level rise and storm surges: high stakes for a small number of developing countries. J Environ Dev 21(1):120–138. doi: 10.1177/1070496511433601

Brown S, Kebede AS, Nicholls RJ (2009) Sea level rise and impacts in africa, 2000–2100. Unpublished Report to Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford

Brücker P, Bougnoux N, Wodon Q (2012) Policy brief en Afrique du Nord. Climate 13:1–4

Buhaug H (2010) Climate not to blame for African civil wars. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(38):16477–16482. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1005739107

Burke MB, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema JA, Lobell DB (2009) Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(49):20670–20674. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907998106

Burkett VR, Suarez AG, Bindi M, Conde C, Mukerji R, Prather MJ, Yohe GW (2014) Point of departure. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp 169–194. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Center for Naval Analysis (2007) National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. Alexandria

Coumou D, Robinson A (2013) Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes. Environ Res Lett 8(3):034018

Dai A (2012) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Change 3(1):52–58. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1633

Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meisner C, Wheeler D, Yan J (2009) The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. Clim Change 93(3–4):379–388. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5

Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Murray S, Wheeler D (2011) Exposure of developing countries to sea-level rise and storm surges. Clim Change 106(4):567–579. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9959-6

Dixon JA, Gibbon DP, Gulliver A (2001) Farming systems and poverty: improving farmers´ livelihoods in a changing world. (M. Hall, Ed.) (p. 412). Rome, Washington: FAO and World Bank

Donat MG, Peterson TC, Brunet M, King AD, Almazroui M, Kolli RK, Boucherf D, Al-Mulla AY, Nour AY, Aly AA, Nada TA (2014) Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region: long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO. Int J Climatol 34(3):581–592. doi: 10.1002/joc.3707

Drine I (2011) WIDER Working Paper No. 2011/32 Climate Change Compounding Risks in North Africa

Evans JP (2009) Twenty-first century climate change in the Middle East. Clim Change 92(3–4):417–432. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9438-5

Fader M, Gerten D, Krause M, Lucht W, Cramer W (2013) Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints. Environ Res Lett 8(1):014046. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014046

FAO (2013a) Aquastat online database. Retrieved March 17, 2014, from http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/query/index.html?lang=en

FAO (2013b) The state of food insecurity in the world. the multiple dimensions of food security, p 52. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3434e/i3434e00.htm

Ferrise R, Moriondo M, Trombi G, Miglietta F, Bindi M (2013) Climate change impacts on typical mediterranean crops and evaluation of adaptation strategies to cope with. In: Navarra A, Tubiana L (eds) regional assessment of climate change in the mediterranean. Springer, Berlin. pp 49–70

Frihy OE, El-Sayed MK (2013) Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 18(8):1215–1237. doi: 10.1007/s11027-012-9418-y

García-Ruiz JM, López-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Lasanta–Martínez T, Beguería S (2011) Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario. Earth Sci Rev 105(3):121–139. doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.01.006

Gemenne F (2011a) Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C + world. Phil Trans Ser A Math Phys Eng Sci 369(1934):182–195. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0287

Gemenne F (2011b) Why the numbers don’t add up: a review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes. Glob Environ Change 21:S41–S49. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.005

Gemenne F (2013) Migration doesn’t have to be a failure to adapt. An escape from environmental determinism. In: Palutikof J, Boulter SL, Ash AJ, Smith MS, Parry M, Waschka M, Guitart D (eds) Climate adaptation futures. Wiley, Hoboken. doi: 10.1002/9781118529577.ch22

Gerten D, Heinke J, Hoff H, Biemans H, Fader M, Waha K (2011) Global water availability and requirements for future food production. J Hydrometeorol 12(5):885–899. doi: 10.1175/2011JHM1328.1

Giannakopoulos C, Le Sager P, Bindi M, Moriondo M, Kostopoulou E, Goodess CM (2009) Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 and C global warming. Global Planet Change 68(3):209–224. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.06.001

Goudie AS (2009) Dust storms: recent developments. J Environ Manag 90(1):89–94. Retrieved from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479708001990

Gubert F, Nordman CJ (2010) Migration trends in North Africa focus on Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. OECD J: General Papers, 4/2009

Habib RR, El Zein K, Ghanawi J (2010) Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean region. EcoHealth 7:156–175

Han W, Meehl GA, Rajagopalan B, Fasullo JT, Hu A, Lin J, Large WG, Wang JW, Quan XW, Trenary LL, Wallcraft A, Yeager S (2010) Patterns of Indian ocean sea-level change in a warming climate. Nature Geosci 3(8):546–550. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo901

Hsiang SM, Meng KC (2014) Reconciling disagreement over climate-conflict results in Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci 1:2–5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1316006111

Hsiang SM, Burke M, Miguel E (2013) Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science 341(6151):1235367. doi: 10.1126/science.1235367

Hugo G (2011) Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate change. Glob Environ Change 21:S21–S33. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.008

Hunt A, Watkiss P (2011) Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature. Clim Change 104(1):13–49. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9975-6

Immerzeel W, Droogers P, Terink W, Hoogeveen J, Hellegers P, Bierkens M, van Beek R (2011) Middle East and North Africa Water Outlook, p 120. Wageningen, Netherlands. Retrieved from http://www.futurewater.nl/uk/projects/mena/

International Trachoma Initiative (2016) Global Atlas of Trachoma. Retrieved from http://www.trachomaatlas.org/

IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (SREX). In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Kerrou J, Renard P, Tarhouni J (2010) Status of the Korba groundwater resources (Tunisia): observations and three-dimensional modelling of seawater intrusion. Hydrogeol J 18(5):1173–1190. doi: 10.1007/s10040-010-0573-5

Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Wehner M (2013) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Clim Change 119(2):345–357. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8

Khormi HM, Kumar L (2014) Climate change and the potential global distribution of Aedes aegypti: spatial modelling using geographical information system and CLIMEX. Geospatial Health 8(2):405–415. doi: 10.4081/gh.2014.29

Kjellstrom T, McMichael A (2013) Climate change threats to population health and well-being: the imperative of protective solutions that will last. Global Health Action, 6(20816). doi: 10.3402/gha.v6i0.20816

Kjellstrom T, Kovats RS, Lloyd SJ, Holt T, Tol RSJ (2009) The direct impact of climate change on regional labor productivity. Arch Environ Occup Health 64(4):217–227

Knutson TR, McBride JL, Chan J, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Held I, Kossin JP, Srivastava AK, Sugi M (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geosci 3(3):157–163. doi: 10.1038/ngeo779

Kouzana L, Ben A, Sfar M (2009) Seawater intrusion and associated processes: case of the Korba aquifer (Cap-Bon, Tunisia). CR Geosci 341(1):21–35. doi: 10.1016/j.crte.2008.09.008

Kuglitsch FG, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, Della-Marta PM, Zerefos CS, Türkeş M, Luterbacher J (2010) Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960. Geophys Res Lett 37(4):5. doi: 10.1029/2009GL041841

Kumar A (2013) Natural hazards of the Arabian Peninsula: their causes and possible remediation. In: Sinha R, Ravindra R (eds) Earth system processes and disaster management (Society of, pp 155–180). Springer, Heidelberg. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-28845-6

Kumetat D (2012) Climate change on the arabian peninsula—regional security, sustainability strategies, and research needs. In: Scheffran J, Brozka M, Brauch HG, Link M, Schilling J (eds) Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Challenges for social stability, pp 373–386. Berlin: Springer

Laczko F, Piguet E (2014) Regional perspectives on migration, the environment and climate change. In: Laczko F, Piguet E (eds) People on the move in a changing climate. the regional impact of environmental change on migration. Global migration issues 2, pp 1–20. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands

Landerer FW, Volkov DL (2013) The anatomy of recent large sea level fluctuations in the Mediterranean Sea. Geophys Res Lett 40(3):553–557. doi: 10.1002/grl.50140

Leichenko R, Silva JA (2014) Climate change and poverty: vulnerability, impacts, and alleviation strategies. doi: 10.1002/wcc.287

Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, Hannides C, Lange MA, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Xoplaki E (2012) Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Clim Change 114(3–4):667–687. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4

Lelieveld J, Barlas C, Giannadaki D, Pozzer A (2013a) Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution. Atmos Chem Phys 13:7023–7037. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-7023-2013

Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Giannakopoulos C, Pozzer A, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E (2013b) Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century. Reg Environ Change 14:1937–1949. doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0444-4

Luecke M (2011) Climate migration: A strategy to adapt to climate change or a failure to adapt? In: Trofimenko N (ed) Climate Change: Current Issues. Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel, pp 8–9

Marcos M, Tsimplis MN (2008) Comparison of results of AOGCMs in the Mediterranean Sea during the twenty-first century. J Geophys Res 113(C12):C12028. doi: 10.1029/2008JC004820

Marcus R, Pereznieto P, Cullen E, Jones N (2011) Children and social protection in the Middle East and North Africa. A mapping exercise. (No. ODI Working Paper 335). London, UK

Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao Z-C (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, Van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463(7282):747–756. doi: 10.1038/nature08823

Mougou R, Mansour M, Iglesias A, Chebbi RZ, Battaglini A (2010) Climate change and agricultural vulnerability: a case study of rain-fed wheat in Kairouan, Central Tunisia. Reg Environ Change 11(S1):137–142. doi: 10.1007/s10113-010-0179-4

Novikov I, Kalter-Leibovici O, Chetrit A, Stav N, Epstein Y (2012) Weather conditions and visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms in a metropolitan area during the warm season in Israel: a predictive model. Int J Biometeorol 56:121–127. doi: 10.1007/s00484-011-0403-z

Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI (2013) Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17(5):1765–1781. doi: 10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013

Portier CJ, Thigpen Tart K, Carter SR, Dilworth CH, Grambsch AE, Gohlke J, Scheraga J, Schramm PJ, Strickman D, Trtanj JM, Whung P-Y (2010) A human health perspective on climate change: a report outlining the research needs on the human health effects of climate change, p 80. Research Triangle Park: NC:Environmental Health Perspectives/National Institute of Environmental Health Science. doi:doi: 10.1289/ehp.100227

Prudhomme C, Giuntoli I, Robinson EL, Clark DB, Arnell NW, Dankers R, Fekete BM, Franssen W, Gerten D, Gosling SN, Hagemann S (2014) Hydrological droughts in the twenty-first century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(9):3262–3267. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222473110

Salehi M, Mohammad K, Farahani MM, Zeraati H, Nourijelyani K, Zayeri F (2008) Spatial modeling of malaria incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran. Saud Med J 29(2):1791–1796

Satterthwaite D, Huq S, Reid H, Pelling M, Lankao PR (2007) Adapting to climate change in urban areas: the possibilities and constraints in low and middle income nations. IIED, London

Scheffran J, Schilling J, Link MP (2012) Theories and models of climate-security interaction: framework and application to a climate hot spot in North Africa. In: Scheffran J, Brzoska M, Brauch HG, Link PM, Schilling J (eds) Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Challenges for social stability, pp 91–131. Berlin: Springer

Scheiter S, Higgins S (2009) Impacts of climate change on the vegetation of Africa: an adaptive dynamic vegetation modelling approach. Global Change Biol 15(9):2224–2246. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01838.x

Schewe J, Heinke J, Gerten D, Haddeland I, Arnell NW, Clark DB, Dankers R, Eisner S, Fekete BM, Colón-González FJ, Gosling SN (2014) Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(9):3245–3250. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222460110

Schilling J, Freier K, Hertig E, Scheffran J (2012) Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco. Agric Ecosyst Environ 156:12–26. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2012.04.021

Selvaraju R (2013) Implications of climate change for agriculture and food security in the Western Asia and Northern Africa region. In: Sivakumar MVK, Lal R, Selvaraju R, Hamdan I (eds) Climate change and food security in West Asia and North Africa. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 27–51

Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D, Goodess CM, Kanae S, Kossin J, Luo Y, Marengo J, McInnes K, Rahimi M, Reichstein M, Sorteberg A, Vera C, Zhang X (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Midgley PM, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). (pp. 109–230). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(6):2473–2493. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50188

Slater H, Michael E (2012) Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling. PLoS ONE 7(2):e32202. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032202

Smith KR, Woodward A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chadee DD, Honda Y, Liu Q, Olwoch JM, Revich B, Sauerborn R (2014) Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TD, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, pp 709–754. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Sousa PM, Trigo RM, Aizpurua P, Nieto R, Gimeno L, Garcia-Herrera R (2011) Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the twentieth century in the Mediterranean. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11(1):33–51. doi: 10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011

Sowers J, Vengosh A, Weinthal E (2011) Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa. Clim Change 104(3–4):599–627. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9835-4

Sternberg T (2012) Chinese drought, bread and the Arab Spring. Appl Geogr 34:519–524. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.02.004

Tacoli C (2009) Crisis or adaptation? Migration and climate change in a context of high mobility. Environ Urban 21(2):513–525. doi: 10.1177/0956247809342182

Thornton PK, van de Steeg J, Notenbaert A, Herrero M (2009) The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: a review of what we know and what we need to know. Agric Syst 101(3):113–127. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2009.05.002

Toumi A, Chlif S, Bettaieb J, Ben Alaya N, Boukthir A, Ahmadi ZE, Ben Salah A (2012) Temporal dynamics and impact of climate factors on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in central tunisia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6(5):e1633. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001633

Trenberth K, Dai A (2014) Global warming and changes in drought. Nature Clim Change 4(January):3–8. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2067

Tsimplis MN, Baker TF (2000) Sea level drop in the Mediterranean Sea: an indicator of deep water salinity and temperature changes? Geophys Res Lett 27(12):1731–1734. doi: 10.1029/1999GL007004

Tsimplis MN, Calafat FM, Marcos M, Jordá G, Gomis D, Fenoglio-Marc L, Struglia MV, Josey SA, Chambers DP (2013) The effect of the NAO on sea level and on mass changes in the Mediterranean Sea. J Geophys Res Oceans 118(2):944–952. doi: 10.1002/JGRC.20078

Vries AJ, Tyrlis E, Edry D, Krichak SO, Steil B, Lelieveld J (2013) Extreme precipitation events in the Middle East: dynamics of the active Red Sea Trough. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(13):7087–7108. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50569

United Nations (2013) World population prospects. The 2012 revision. vol I: Comprehensive tables. New York

Unnikrishnan AS, Shankar D (2007) Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates? Global Planet Change 57:301–307. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.029

Van Lieshout M, Kovats RS, Livermore MTJ, Martens P (2004) Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14(1):87–99. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.009

Verner D (2012) Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries: a case for adaptation governance and leadership in building climate resilience. Washington D.C.: MENA Development Report, World Bank

Verstraete MM, Scholes RJ, Smith MS (2009) Climate and desertification: looking at an old problem through new lenses. Front Ecol Environ 7(8):421–428. doi: 10.1890/080119

Warner K, Hamza MA, Oliver-Smith A, Renaud F, Julca A (2010) Climate change, environmental degradation and migration. Nat Hazards 55:689–715. doi: 10.1007/s11069-009-9419-7

Werner AD, Simmons CT (2009) Impact of sea-level rise on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Ground Water 47(2):197–204. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2008.00535.x

WHO and EMRO (2009) The work of WHO in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: annual report of the regional director 1 January–31 December 2008. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Wodon Q, Burger N, Grant A, Joseph G, Liverani A, Olesya T (2014) Climate change, extreme weather events, and migration: review of the literature for five Arab countries. In: Piguet E, Laczko F (eds) People on the move in a changing climate. The Regional Impact of Environmental Change on Migration. Global Migration Issues 2 (pp 111–134). Dordrecht: International Organization of Migration, Springer

Wöppelmann G, Le Cozannet G, Michele M, Raucoules D, Cazenave A, Garcin M, Hanson S, Marcos M, Santamaría-Gómez A (2013) Is land subsidence increasing the exposure to sea level rise in Alexandria, Egypt? Geophys Res Lett 40(12):2953–2957. doi: 10.1002/grl.50568

World Bank (2011) North African coastal cities: address natural disasters and climate change—summary of the regional study, p 28. Washington D.C

World Bank (2013a) Access to electricity (% of population). Retrieved 11 Dec 2013, from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS

World Bank (2013b) Electric power consumption (kWh per capita). Retrieved 11 Dec 2013, from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC

World Bank (2014) Turn down the heat: confronting the new climate normal. A report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, p 275. Washington D.C

World Bank (2016) World development indicators. Retrieved 21 Sept 2016, from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

Yechieli Y, Shalev E, Wollman S, Kiro Y, Kafri U (2010) Response of the Mediterranean and Dead Sea coastal aquifers to sea level variations. Water Resour Res 46(12):1–11. doi: 10.1029/2009WR008708