Portuguese Economic Journal
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Who should you vote for? Empirical evidence from Portuguese local governments
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 19 - Trang 5-31 - 2019
The economic literature considers voters quasi-rational agents that care about maximizing their individual welfare when deciding on who to vote for. Voters believe that, once a politician is elected, his or her characteristics will affect policy outcomes and consequently their private welfare. To assess whether mayors’ characteristics influence municipalities’ financial performance, I use a datase......
Semi-parametric models for satisfaction with income
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 1 - Trang 181-203 - 2002
An overview is presented of some parametric and semi-parametric models, estimators, and specification tests that can be used to analyze ordered response variables. In particular, limited dependent variable models that generalize ordered probit are compared to regression models that generalize the linear model. These techniques are then applied to analyze how self-reported satisfaction with househo......
Do bad borrowers hurt good borrowers? A model of biased banking competition
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 18 - Trang 5-17 - 2018
This paper explores a two-bank model in which, first, one bank correctly estimates the probability of low-quality loan repayment while the other overestimates it, and second, both banks have identical convex costs when granting loans. In this context of optimistically biased banking competition, we show how the unbiased bank follows the biased competitor as long as the bias of the latter is not to......
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 16 - Trang 149-168 - 2017
Over the past 20 years, Portugal has gone through a boom, a slump, a sudden stop, and now a recovery. Unemployment has decreased, but remains high, and output is still far below potential. Competitiveness has improved, but more is needed to keep the current account in check as the economy recovers. Private and public debt are high, both legacies of the boom, the slump and the sudden stop. Producti......
Real exchange rates and target interest rates in a simple VAR model
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 2 - Trang 195-218 - 2003
This paper proposes a simple vector autoregressions (VAR) model with (real) output and exchange rate shocks on interest rates. Rather than assuming non-recursive identification schemes, we test the identifying assumption of the error term decompositions. Applying the model to quarterly data on major currencies against the U.S. dollar (USD) from 1974 to 1997, interest rate shocks explain - after 3 ......
Long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and the current account balance in the United States: An empirical analysis
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 22 - Trang 397-416 - 2022
In recent years, political rhetoric implying international trade hinder employment has gained momentum. We argue that the dynamics between the unemployment rate and the current account balance have both economic and political relevance. The presence of cointegration between the unemployment rate and the current account balance to GDP ratio and the nature of their short-run fluctuations will help u......
Threshold effect of foreign direct investment on environmental degradation
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 14 - Trang 75-102 - 2015
The aim of this paper is to investigate the threshold effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on environmental degradation. In empirical analysis, FDI and environmental degradation are jointly determined under the given threshold variable and other exogenous variables. Using carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita as a proxy for environmental degradation, the results show that increasing FDI w......
A new approach to bad news effects on volatility: the multiple-sign-volume sensitive regime EGARCH model (MSV-EGARCH)
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 8 - Trang 23-36 - 2009
In this paper, using daily data for six major international stock market indexes and a modified EGARCH specification, the links between stock market returns, volatility and trading volume are investigated in a new nonlinear conditional variance framework with multiple regimes and volume effects. Volatility forecast comparisons, using the Harvey-Newbold test for multiple forecasts encompassing, see......
The intensive and the extensive margins: not only an international issue
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 12 - Trang 1-34 - 2013
Empirical evidence shows that quantity (intensive margin) and variety availability (extensive margin) have effects of different magnitude on populations’ welfare. Indeed, the pattern of a market dynamics may cause changes in welfare inequality. Low income consumers benefit more from quantity than high income consumers, who are more interested in enjoying variety. These facts have been usually addr......
Evaluating the efficiency and determinants of mass tourism in Spain: a tourist area perspective
Portuguese Economic Journal - Tập 23 Số 1 - Trang 111-145 - 2024
Tourism is one of the fastest-growing economic sectors. This has piqued increasing interest in the evaluation of the performance of the sector. This paper joins this line of research by providing a potential framework for measuring efficiency in the context of a country such as Spain, where sun-and-sand tourism, usually associated with mass tourism, predominates. Tourist areas located on the coast......
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