Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

Tóm tắt. Nhiều nhà khoa học đã sử dụng phương pháp sóng con để phân tích chuỗi thời gian, thường sử dụng phần mềm miễn phí phổ biến. Tuy nhiên, hiện tại không có những gói sóng con dễ sử dụng tương tự để phân tích hai chuỗi thời gian cùng nhau. Chúng tôi thảo luận về biến đổi sóng chéo và tính nhất quán của sóng để kiểm tra các mối quan hệ trong không gian tần số thời gian giữa hai chuỗi thời gian. Chúng tôi chỉ ra cách mà thống kê góc pha có thể được sử dụng để tăng cường tính chính xác về các mối quan hệ nguyên nhân và kiểm tra các mô hình cơ chế của các mối quan hệ vật lý giữa các chuỗi thời gian. Như một ví dụ về dữ liệu điển hình mà các phân tích như vậy đã cho thấy tính hữu ích, chúng tôi áp dụng các phương pháp vào chỉ số Dao Đông Bắc và ghi nhận mức độ băng biển lớn nhất ở Baltic. Các phương pháp Monte Carlo được sử dụng để đánh giá ý nghĩa thống kê so với nền tiếng đỏ. Một gói phần mềm đã được phát triển cho phép người dùng thực hiện biến đổi sóng chéo và tính nhất quán của sóng (www.pol.ac.uk/home/research/waveletcoherence/).

Abstract. Small amplitude electron - acoustic solitons are studied in a magnetized plasma consisting of two types of electrons, namely cold electron beam and background plasma electrons and two temperature ion plasma. The analysis predicts rarefactive solitons. The model may provide a possible explanation for the perpendicular polarization of the low-frequency component of the broadband electrostatic noise observed in the Earth's magnetotail.

Abstract. Electron-acoustic solitary waves are studied in an unmagnetized plasma consisting of non-thermally distributed electrons, fluid cold electrons and ions. The Sagdeev pseudo-potential technique is used to carry out the analysis. The presence of non-thermal electrons modifies the parametric region where electron acoustic solitons can exist. For parameters representative of auroral zone field lines, the electron acoustic solitons do not exist when either α > 0.225 or Tc/Th > 0.142, where α is the fractional non-thermal electron density, and Tc (Th) represents the temperature of cold (hot) electrons. Further, for these parameters, the simple model predicts negatively charged potential structures. Inclusion of an electron beam in the model may provide the positive potential solitary structures.

Abstract. The presence of dynamic, large amplitude solitary waves in the auroral regions of space is well known. Since their velocities are of the order of the ion acoustic speed, they may well be considered as being generated from the nonlinear evolution of ion acoustic waves. However, they do not show the expected width-amplitude correlation for K-dV solitons. Recent POLAR observations have actually revealed that the low altitude rarefactive ion acoustic solitary waves are associated with an increase in the width with increasing amplitude. This indicates that a weakly nonlinear theory is not appropriate to describe the solitary structures in the auroral regions. In the present work, a fully nonlinear analysis based on Sagdeev pseudopotential technique has been adopted for both parallel and oblique propagation of rarefactive solitary waves in a two electron temperature multi-ion plasma. The large amplitude solutions have consistently shown an increase in the width with increasing amplitude. The width-amplitude variation profile of obliquely propagating rarefactive solitary waves in a magnetized plasma have been compared with the recent POLAR observations. The width-amplitude variation pattern is found to fit well with the analytical results. It indicates that a fully nonlinear theory of ion acoustic solitary waves may well explain the observed anomalous width variations of large amplitude structures in the auroral region.

Abstract. Arbitrary amplitude electron acoustic solitons are studied in an unmagnetized plasma having cold electrons and ions, superthermal hot electrons and an electron beam. Using the Sagdeev pseudo potential method, theoretical analysis is carried out by assuming superthermal hot electrons having kappa distribution. The results show that inclusion of an electron beam alters the minimum value of spectral index, κ, of the superthermal electron distribution and Mach number for which electron-acoustic solitons can exist and also changes their width and electric field amplitude. For the auroral region parameters, the maximum electric field amplitudes and soliton widths are found in the range ~(30–524) mV m−1 and ~(329–729) m, respectively, for fixed Mach number M = 1.1 and for electron beam speed of (660–1990) km s−1.

Abstract. The ability of a data assimilation system to deal effectively with nonlinearities arising from the prognostic model or the relationship between the control variables and the available observations has received a lot of attention in theoretical studies based on very simplified test models. Less work has been done to quantify the importance of nonlinearities in operational, state-of-the-art global data assimilation systems. In this paper we analyse the nonlinear effects present in ECMWF 4D-Var and evaluate the ability of the incremental formulation to solve the nonlinear assimilation problem in a realistic NWP environment. We find that nonlinearities have increased over the years due to a combination of increased model resolution and the ever-growing importance of observations that are nonlinearly related to the state. Incremental 4D-Var is well suited for dealing with these nonlinear effects, but at the cost of increasing the number of outer loop relinearisations. We then discuss strategies for accommodating the increasing number of sequential outer loops in the tight schedules of operational global NWP.

Abstract. Analysis of year-long drifter trajectories and records of simulated surface Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) have suggested the presence of a resilient Cross-Shelf Transport Barrier (CSTB) on the West Florida Shelf (WFS). The CSTB was conjectured to provide a large degree of isolation, which is consequential for the fueling of red tides on the southern WFS by nutrients possibly released by rivers and canals directly on the region. Here this conjecture is thoroughly tested by identifying LCSs as well as performing tracer advection calculations based on seven-year-long records of surface and subsurface currents produced by a HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulation of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The identified LCSs suggest that the CSTB extends downward in the water column. The tracer calculations suggest that, while the majority of the nutrients possibly released by rivers and canals directly on the southern WFS are retained within the region for long times, only a small fraction of the nutrients possibly released by rivers outside the WFS reach the southern WFS, mainly accompanying shoreward excursions of the CSTB. These results add importance to the role played by the CSTB in controlling red tide development on the WFS. Implications of the results for the dispersal of pollutants, such as oil, in the GoM are discussed.

Abstract. In this paper, we present a detailed evaluation of cross wavelet analysis of bivariate time series. We develop a statistical test for zero wavelet coherency based on Monte Carlo simulations. If at least one of the two processes considered is Gaussian white noise, an approximative formula for the critical value can be utilized. In a second part, typical pitfalls of wavelet cross spectra and wavelet coherency are discussed. The wavelet cross spectrum appears to be not suitable for significance testing the interrelation between two processes. Instead, one should rather apply wavelet coherency. Furthermore we investigate problems due to multiple testing. Based on these results, we show that coherency between ENSO and NAO is an artefact for most of the time from 1900 to 1995. However, during a distinct period from around 1920 to 1940, significant coherency between the two phenomena occurs.

Abstract. Due to the local and global impacts of algae blooms and patchiness on water quality, carbon cycling and climate, models of plankton dynamics are of current interest. In this paper, the temporal and spatial patterns in natural plankton communities are interpreted as transient and stationary nonequilibrium solutions of dynamical nonlinear interaction-diffusion-advection systems. A simple model of phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics (Scheffer, 1991) is presented in space and time. After summarizing the local properties as multiple stability and oscillations, the emergence of spatial and spatio- temporal patterns is considered, accounting also for diffusion and weak advection. In order to study the emergence and stability of these structures under hydrodynamic forcing, the interaction- diffusion-advection model is coupled to the hydrodynamic equations. It is shown, that the formation of nonequilibrium spatio-temporal density patterns due to the interplay of the deterministic nonlinear biological interactions and physical processes is a rare occurrence in rapidly flowing waters. The two-timing perturbation technique is applied to problems with very rapid single-directed steady flows. A channel under tidal forcing serves as and example for a system with a relatively high detention time of matter. Generally, due to the different time and length scales of planktic interactions, diffusion and transport, initial nonequilibrium plankton patches are simply moved through the system unless the strong hydrodynamic forces do not destroy them before.

Abstract. In this paper, we present evidence that intermittency of Eulerian and Lagrangian turbulence of ocean temperature and plankton fields is multifractal and furthermore can be analysed with the help of universal multifractals. We analyse time series of temperature and in vivo fluorescence taken from a drifter in the mixed coastal waters of the eastern English Channel. Two analysis techniques are used to compute the fundamental universal multifiractal parameters, which describe all the statistics of the turbulent fluctuations: the analysis of the scale invariant structure function exponent ζ(q) and the Double Trace Moment technique. At small scales, we do not detect any significant difference between the universal multifiractal behavior of temperature and fluorescence in an Eulerian framework. This supports the hypothesis that the latter is passively advected with the flow as the former. On the one hand, we show that large scale measurements are Lagrangian and indeed we obtain for temperature fluctuations a ω2 power spectrum corresponding to the theoretical scaling of a Lagrangian passive scalar. Furthermore, we show that Lagrangian temperature fluctuations are multiscaling and intermittent. On the other hand, the flatter slope at large scales of the fluorescence power spectrum points out that the plankton is at these scales a "biologically active" scalar.