Journal of Seismology

A micro-seismic field experiment has been carried out in the Marmara Searegion. The analysis of the events before and after the August 17, 1999Izmit (Turkey) earthquake has been completed. 1446 events have beenwell located out of a total of 3165 recorded within the period from July15 to November 2, 1999. 67% of the aftershocks with magnitudegreater than 4 have occurred within the first 6 days after the main-shock. Earthquakes of the Izmit sequence are distributed in the first 15 km of theearth crust, but major events are located in between 5 km and 15 kmdepth. The seismicity pattern defines a rupture plane extending for about150 km in an E-W direction. The rupture is extremely linear butsegmented, and its complexity increases towards the western endmanifesting bifurcation. A stress analysis has been carried out both at thewestern end and all along the aftershock zone. 96 selected aftershocks,registered between August 21 and October 22, were chosen in order tocompute their focal mechanisms and obtain information about the stressregime after the Izmit earthquake. Strike-slip and normal faultingmechanisms are dominant. The numerous strike-slip mechanisms arecompatible with a dextral motion on an EW oriented vertical fault plane. The best stress tensor solution shows a regime in extension with awell-defined σ3 axis oriented approximately N35°.

During the occurrence of earthquake, the shear wave propagates in the rocks present inside/at the Earth’s crust. The propagation of shear wave may lead to the progression of punch present inside the rock medium. As a result of this, substantial stress accumulated at the vicinity of propagating punch inside rock medium which significantly affects the stability of various geological and human-made structure and, hence, may cause failure of structure. Therefore, the analysis of stress concentration at the vicinity of punch moving due to shear wave propagation has become prominent in the area of seismology. In the present paper, an analytical perspective has been employed to discuss the influence of velocity of moving punch associated with the propagation of shear wave on developed dynamic stress concentration (DSC) in three types of pre-stressed vertical transversely isotropic (VTI) poroelastic media viz. granite (an igneous rock); sandstone (a sedimentary rock); and marble (a metamorphic rock). The closed form expression of DSC for the force of constant intensity has been derived with the aid of Weiner-Hopf technique along with Galilean and two-sided Fourier integral transformations. The noticeable influence of different affecting parameters (viz. velocity of moving punch associated with the shear wave propagation, horizontal compressive/tensile initial stresses, vertical compressive/tensile initial stress, porosity, and anisotropy parameter) on dynamic stress concentration has also been reported. Numerical computation and graphical illustrations have been carried out for the aforementioned three different types of porous rocks to investigate the profound impact of affecting parameters on DSC. Moreover, some noteworthy peculiarities have also been derived from the obtained expression of dynamic stress concentration.

In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons and Geist (Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1–11, 2012). Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are considered, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model (magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely) as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos and Karlis (Environmetrics 19: 251–269, 2008). On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are functions of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year or a decade.

By using P and S wave receiver functions and P and S wave travel time residuals, we have found velocity models for 16 seismograph stations in Eastern Anatolia. Our study is focused mainly on the mantle lithosphere, asthenosphere and transition zone. The volcanism and uplift of the Eastern Anatolia Plateau are thought to be related to the Bitlis slab break off and delamination of the continental lithosphere. Sinking cold slab and lithospheric drips can reduce temperature in the mantle transition zone (MTZ) by up to a few hundred degrees C. However, our analysis of seismic data provides no robust evidence of significant cooling of the transition zone. In the mantle immediately above the 410-km discontinuity there is a pronounced low S wave velocity layer that may be a source of the volcanism in the study region. Another low velocity layer is present at the base of the MTZ. The obtained S wave velocity models of the upper mantle can be divided into three groups. In the first group, the lithosphere—asthenosphere boundary (LAB) is at a depth of ~ 60 km. In the second group, the LAB is at a depth from 90 to 100 km. In the third group, the mantle lithosphere is practically absent. On a scale of our analysis there is no clear correspondence between the obtained mantle velocity models and the volcanism (< 23 Ma) exposed at the surface. Only the models of the first group are well represented in the neighboring Central Anatolian Plateau.

The east of Cali is composed of loose sand deposits with high water table levels. This condition and the high seismic hazard of the city make cyclic liquefaction one of the main hazards in the city, which may affect more than 600,000 citizens and important infrastructures such as the city’s main drinking water treatment plants. Therefore, it was decided to design and implement a seismic monitoring center to study the behavior of liquefiable soils under local seismogenic conditions, in which subduction earthquakes predominate. First, more than 130 earthquakes from two seismic monitoring centers with liquefiable layers in the USA were studied to determine the requirements for the adequate design of the monitoring center. Then, a robust geotechnical and seismic characterization of the study area including SPT, CPTu, and seismic and ambient noise tests were carried out. From this information, the specifications and location of the instruments and, in general, the characteristics of the monitoring center were defined. The monitoring center has been planned to be established in two stages, and the first one has already been built and commissioned. The implementation of the first stage allowed to adequately record 35 earthquakes from different seismogenic sources, most of them from subduction earthquakes, and to verify that the potentially liquefiable layer remains saturated throughout the year. Subsequent ground motion sensors will allow to deeply study and understand large shear strains and excess pore pressures generation in the soil deposit, as well as their relationships with different intensity measures. The experience shared herein can benefit the design, construction, and operation of other seismic monitoring centers across the world.

Due to the increasing popularity of analyzing empirical Green’s functions obtained from ambient seismic noise, more and more regional tomographical studies based on short-period surface waves are published. Results could potentially be biased in mountainous regions where topography is not small compared to the wavelength and penetration depth of the considered waves. We investigate the effect of topography on the propagation of short-period Rayleigh waves empirically by means of synthetic data using a spectral element code and a 3-D model with real topography. We show that topography along a profile through the studied area can result in an underestimation of phase velocities of up to about 0.7% at the shortest investigated period (3 s). Contrary to the expectation that this bias results from the increased surface distance along topography, we find that this error can be estimated by local topographic contrasts in the vicinity of the receiver alone. We discuss and generalize our results by considering topographic profiles through other mountain ranges and find that southern Norway is a good proxy to assess the topography effect. Nevertheless, topographic bias on phase velocity measurements is in general not large enough to significantly affect recovered velocity variations in the ambient noise frequency range.