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Generation and analysis of a new global burned area product based on MODIS 250 m reflectance bands and thermal anomalies
Earth System Science Data - Tập 10 Số 4 - Trang 2015-2031
Emilio Chuvieco, Joshua Lizundia-Loiola, M. Lucrecia Pettinari, Rubén Ramo, Marc Padilla, Kevin Tansey, Florent Mouillot, Pierre Laurent, Thomas Storm, Angelika Heil, Stephen Plummer
Abstract. This paper presents a new global burned area (BA) product, generated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) red (R) and near-infrared (NIR) reflectances and thermal anomaly data, thus providing the highest spatial resolution (approx. 250 m) among the existing global BA datasets. The product includes the full times series (2001–2016) of the Terra-MODIS archive. The BA detection algorithm was based on monthly composites of daily images, using temporal and spatial distance to active fires. The algorithm has two steps, the first one aiming to reduce commission errors by selecting the most clearly burned pixels (seeds), and the second one targeting to reduce omission errors by applying contextual analysis around the seed pixels. This product was developed within the European Space Agency's (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) programme, under the Fire Disturbance project (Fire_cci). The final output includes two types of BA files: monthly full-resolution continental tiles and biweekly global grid files at a degraded resolution of 0.25∘. Each set of products includes several auxiliary variables that were defined by the climate users to facilitate the ingestion of the product into global dynamic vegetation and atmospheric emission models. Average annual burned area from this product was 3.81 Mkm2, with maximum burning in 2011 (4.1 Mkm2) and minimum in 2013 (3.24 Mkm2). The validation was based on a stratified random sample of 1200 pairs of Landsat images, covering the whole globe from 2003 to 2014. The validation indicates an overall accuracy of 0.9972, with much higher errors for the burned than the unburned category (global omission error of BA was estimated as 0.7090 and global commission as 0.5123). These error values are similar to other global BA products, but slightly higher than the NASA BA product (named MCD64A1, which is produced at 500 m resolution). However, commission and omission errors are better compensated in our product, with a tendency towards BA underestimation (relative bias −0.4033), as most existing global BA products. To understand the value of this product in detecting small fire patches (<100 ha), an additional validation sample of 52 Sentinel-2 scenes was generated specifically over Africa. Analysis of these results indicates a better detection accuracy of this product for small fire patches (<100 ha) than the equivalent 500 m MCD64A1 product, although both have high errors for these small fires. Examples of potential applications of this dataset to fire modelling based on burned patches analysis are included in this paper. The datasets are freely downloadable from the Fire_cci website (https://www.esa-fire-cci.org/, last access: 10 November 2018) and their repositories (pixel at full resolution: https://doi.org/cpk7, and grid: https://doi.org/gcx9gf).
Altimetry, gravimetry, GPS and viscoelastic modeling data for the joint inversion for glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica (ESA STSE Project REGINA)
Earth System Science Data - Tập 10 Số 1 - Trang 493-523
Ingo Sasgen, Alba Martín‐Español, Alexander Horvath, Volker Klemann, Elizabeth Petrie, Bert Wouters, Martin Horwath, Roland Pail, J. L. Bamber, Peter J. Clarke, Hannes Konrad, T. J. Wilson, Mark R. Drinkwater
Abstract. The poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry. In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modeling ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modeling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data – namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends in recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation change (Envisat/Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellite, ICESat; 2003–2009), gravity field change (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE; 2003–2009) and bedrock uplift (GPS; 1995–2013). The data analysis is complemented by the forward modeling of viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing, allowing us to relate GIA-induced surface displacements with gravity changes for different rheological parameters of the solid Earth. The data and modeling results presented here are available in the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875745). The data sets are the input streams for the joint inversion estimate of present-day ice-mass change and GIA, focusing on Antarctica. However, the methods, code and data provided in this paper can be used to solve other problems, such as volume balances of the Antarctic ice sheet, or can be applied to other geographical regions in the case of the viscoelastic response functions. This paper presents the first of two contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study: Regional glacial isostatic adjustment and CryoSat elevation rate corrections in Antarctica (REGINA).
Global Carbon Budget 2015
Earth System Science Data - Tập 7 Số 2 - Trang 349-396
Corinne Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Pierre Friedlingstein, Glen P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, Joanna I. House, Ralph F. Keeling, Pieter P. Tans, Almut Arneth, Dorothée C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Jinfeng Chang, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise Chini, Philippe Ciais, Marianela Fader, Richard A. Feely, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Charles D. Koven, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Ivan D. Lima, Nicolas Metzl, Frank J. Millero, David R. Munro, Akihiko Murata, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin‐Ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, Kevin O’Brien, Are Olsen, Tsuneo Ono, Fı́z F. Pérez, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Christian Rödenbeck, Shu Saito, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Tobias Steinhoff, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Doug Vandemark, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).
EDGAR v4.3.2 Global Atlas of the three major greenhouse gas emissions for the period 1970–2012
Earth System Science Data - Tập 11 Số 3 - Trang 959-1002
Greet Janssens‐Maenhout, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, Marilena Muntean, Edwin Schaaf, Frank Dentener, P. Bergamaschi, Valerio Pagliari, J. G. J. Olivier, Jeroen A. H. W. Peters, J. A. van Aardenne, Suvi Monni, Ulrike Doering, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Efisio Solazzo, Gabriel D. Oreggioni
Abstract. The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) compiles anthropogenic emissions data for greenhouse gases (GHGs), and for multiple air pollutants, based on international statistics and emission factors. EDGAR data provide quantitative support for atmospheric modelling and for mitigation scenario and impact assessment analyses as well as for policy evaluation. The new version (v4.3.2) of the EDGAR emission inventory provides global estimates, broken down to IPCC-relevant source-sector levels, from 1970 (the year of the European Union's first Air Quality Directive) to 2012 (the end year of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, KP). Strengths of EDGAR v4.3.2 include global geo-coverage (226 countries), continuity in time, and comprehensiveness in activities. Emissions of multiple chemical compounds, GHGs as well as air pollutants, from relevant sources (fossil fuel activities but also, for example, fermentation processes in agricultural activities) are compiled following a bottom-up (BU), transparent and IPCC-compliant methodology. This paper describes EDGAR v4.3.2 developments with respect to three major long-lived GHGs (CO2, CH4, and N2O) derived from a wide range of human activities apart from the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector and apart from savannah burning; a companion paper quantifies and discusses emissions of air pollutants. Detailed information is included for each of the IPCC-relevant source sectors, leading to global totals for 2010 (in the middle of the first KP commitment period) (with a 95 % confidence interval in parentheses): 33.6(±5.9) Pg CO2 yr−1, 0.34(±0.16) Pg CH4 yr−1, and 7.2(±3.7) Tg N2O yr−1. We provide uncertainty factors in emissions data for the different GHGs and for three different groups of countries: OECD countries of 1990, countries with economies in transition in 1990, and the remaining countries in development (the UNFCCC non-Annex I parties). We document trends for the major emitting countries together with the European Union in more detail, demonstrating that effects of fuel markets and financial instability have had greater impacts on GHG trends than effects of income or population. These data (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2658138, Janssens-Maenhout et al., 2019) are visualised with annual and monthly global emissions grid maps of 0.1∘×0.1∘ for each source sector.
A global anthropogenic emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants from sector- and fuel-specific sources (1970–2017): an application of the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)
Earth System Science Data - Tập 12 Số 4 - Trang 3413-3442
Erin E. McDuffie, Steven J. Smith, Patrick O’Rourke, Kushal Tibrewal, Chandra Venkataraman, Eloïse A. Marais, Bo Zheng, Monica Crippa, Michael Bräuer, Randall V. Martin
Abstract. Global anthropogenic emission inventories remain vital for understanding the sources of atmospheric pollution and the associated impacts on the environment, human health, and society. Rapid changes in today's society require that these inventories provide contemporary estimates of multiple atmospheric pollutants with both source sector and fuel type information to understand and effectively mitigate future impacts. To fill this need, we have updated the open-source Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) (Hoesly et al., 2019) to develop a new global emission inventory, CEDSGBD-MAPS. This inventory includes emissions of seven key atmospheric pollutants (NOx; CO; SO2; NH3; non-methane volatile organic compounds, NMVOCs; black carbon, BC; organic carbon, OC) over the time period from 1970–2017 and reports annual country-total emissions as a function of 11 anthropogenic sectors (agriculture; energy generation; industrial processes; on-road and non-road transportation; separate residential, commercial, and other sectors (RCO); waste; solvent use; and international shipping) and four fuel categories (total coal, solid biofuel, the sum of liquid-fuel and natural-gas combustion, and remaining process-level emissions). The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory additionally includes monthly global gridded (0.5∘ × 0.5∘) emission fluxes for each compound, sector, and fuel type to facilitate their use in earth system models. CEDSGBD-MAPS utilizes updated activity data, updates to the core CEDS default scaling procedure, and modifications to the final procedures for emissions gridding and aggregation. Relative to the previous CEDS inventory (Hoesly et al., 2018), these updates extend the emission estimates from 2014 to 2017 and improve the overall agreement between CEDS and two widely used global bottom-up emission inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory provides the most contemporary global emission estimates to date for these key atmospheric pollutants and is the first to provide global estimates for these species as a function of multiple fuel types and source sectors. Dominant sources of global NOx and SO2 emissions in 2017 include the combustion of oil, gas, and coal in the energy and industry sectors as well as on-road transportation and international shipping for NOx. Dominant sources of global CO emissions in 2017 include on-road transportation and residential biofuel combustion. Dominant global sources of carbonaceous aerosol in 2017 include residential biofuel combustion, on-road transportation (BC only), and emissions from the waste sector. Global emissions of NOx, SO2, CO, BC, and OC all peak in 2012 or earlier, with more recent emission reductions driven by large changes in emissions from China, North America, and Europe. In contrast, global emissions of NH3 and NMVOCs continuously increase between 1970 and 2017, with agriculture as a major source of global NH3 emissions and solvent use, energy, residential, and the on-road transport sectors as major sources of global NMVOCs. Due to similar development methods and underlying datasets, the CEDSGBD-MAPS emissions are expected to have consistent sources of uncertainty as other bottom-up inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS source code is publicly available online through GitHub: https://github.com/emcduffie/CEDS/tree/CEDS_GBD-MAPS (last access: 1 December 2020). The CEDSGBD-MAPS emission inventory dataset (both annual country-total and monthly global gridded files) is publicly available under https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3754964 (McDuffie et al., 2020c).
The Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;, version 2016 (ODIAC2016): a global monthly fossil fuel CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; gridded emissions data product for tracer transport simulations and surface flux inversions
Earth System Science Data - Tập 10 Số 1 - Trang 87-107
Tomohiro Oda, Shamil Maksyutov, R. J. Andres
Abstract. The Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) is a global high-spatial-resolution gridded emissions data product that distributes carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The emissions spatial distributions are estimated at a 1  ×  1 km spatial resolution over land using power plant profiles (emissions intensity and geographical location) and satellite-observed nighttime lights. This paper describes the year 2016 version of the ODIAC emissions data product (ODIAC2016) and presents analyses that help guide data users, especially for atmospheric CO2 tracer transport simulations and flux inversion analysis. Since the original publication in 2011, we have made modifications to our emissions modeling framework in order to deliver a comprehensive global gridded emissions data product. Major changes from the 2011 publication are (1) the use of emissions estimates made by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) by fuel type (solid, liquid, gas, cement manufacturing, gas flaring, and international aviation and marine bunkers); (2) the use of multiple spatial emissions proxies by fuel type such as (a) nighttime light data specific to gas flaring and (b) ship/aircraft fleet tracks; and (3) the inclusion of emissions temporal variations. Using global fuel consumption data, we extrapolated the CDIAC emissions estimates for the recent years and produced the ODIAC2016 emissions data product that covers 2000–2015. Our emissions data can be viewed as an extended version of CDIAC gridded emissions data product, which should allow data users to impose global fossil fuel emissions in a more comprehensive manner than the original CDIAC product. Our new emissions modeling framework allows us to produce future versions of the ODIAC emissions data product with a timely update. Such capability has become more significant given the CDIAC/ORNL's shutdown. The ODIAC data product could play an important role in supporting carbon cycle science, especially modeling studies with space-based CO2 data collected in near real time by ongoing carbon observing missions such as the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), and upcoming future missions. The ODIAC emissions data product including the latest version of the ODIAC emissions data (ODIAC2017, 2000–2016) is distributed from http://db.cger.nies.go.jp/dataset/ODIAC/ with a DOI (https://doi.org/10.17595/20170411.001).
An extended time series (2000–2018) of global NPP-VIIRS-like nighttime light data from a cross-sensor calibration
Earth System Science Data - Tập 13 Số 3 - Trang 889-906
Zuoqi Chen, Bailang Yu, Chengshu Yang, Yuyu Zhou, Shenjun Yao, Xingjian Qian, Congxiao Wang, Bin Wu, Jianping Wu
Abstract. The nighttime light (NTL) satellite data have been widely used to investigate the urbanization process. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) stable nighttime light data and Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP-VIIRS) nighttime light data are two widely used NTL datasets. However, the difference in their spatial resolutions and sensor design requires a cross-sensor calibration of these two datasets for analyzing a long-term urbanization process. Different from the traditional cross-sensor calibration of NTL data by converting NPP-VIIRS to DMSP-OLS-like NTL data, this study built an extended time series (2000–2018) of NPP-VIIRS-like NTL data through a new cross-sensor calibration from DMSP-OLS NTL data (2000–2012) and a composition of monthly NPP-VIIRS NTL data (2013–2018). The proposed cross-sensor calibration is unique due to the image enhancement by using a vegetation index and an auto-encoder model. Compared with the annual composited NPP-VIIRS NTL data in 2012, our product of extended NPP-VIIRS-like NTL data shows a good consistency at the pixel and city levels with R2 of 0.87 and 0.95, respectively. We also found that our product has great accuracy by comparing it with DMSP-OLS radiance-calibrated NTL (RNTL) data in 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2010. Generally, our extended NPP-VIIRS-like NTL data (2000–2018) have an excellent spatial pattern and temporal consistency which are similar to the composited NPP-VIIRS NTL data. In addition, the resulting product could be easily updated and provide a useful proxy to monitor the dynamics of demographic and socioeconomic activities for a longer time period compared to existing products. The extended time series (2000–2018) of nighttime light data is freely accessible at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/YGIVCD (Chen et al., 2020).
The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database: a long-term database for climate studies
Earth System Science Data - Tập 8 Số 2 - Trang 461-490
Sean Davis, K. H. Rosenlof, Birgit Haßler, D. F. Hurst, W. G. Read, Holger Vömel, Henry B. Selkirk, Masatomo Fujiwara, Robert Damadeo
Abstract. In this paper, we describe the construction of the Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database, which includes vertically resolved ozone and water vapor data from a subset of the limb profiling satellite instruments operating since the 1980s. The primary SWOOSH products are zonal-mean monthly-mean time series of water vapor and ozone mixing ratio on pressure levels (12 levels per decade from 316 to 1 hPa). The SWOOSH pressure level products are provided on several independent zonal-mean grids (2.5, 5, and 10°), and additional products include two coarse 3-D griddings (30° long  ×  10° lat, 20°  ×  5°) as well as a zonal-mean isentropic product. SWOOSH includes both individual satellite source data as well as a merged data product. A key aspect of the merged product is that the source records are homogenized to account for inter-satellite biases and to minimize artificial jumps in the record. We describe the SWOOSH homogenization process, which involves adjusting the satellite data records to a “reference” satellite using coincident observations during time periods of instrument overlap. The reference satellite is chosen based on the best agreement with independent balloon-based sounding measurements, with the goal of producing a long-term data record that is both homogeneous (i.e., with minimal artificial jumps in time) and accurate (i.e., unbiased). This paper details the choice of reference measurements, homogenization, and gridding process involved in the construction of the combined SWOOSH product and also presents the ancillary information stored in SWOOSH that can be used in future studies of water vapor and ozone variability. Furthermore, a discussion of uncertainties in the combined SWOOSH record is presented, and examples of the SWOOSH record are provided to illustrate its use for studies of ozone and water vapor variability on interannual to decadal timescales. The version 2.5 SWOOSH data are publicly available at doi:10.7289/V5TD9VBX.
Global Carbon Budget 2018
Earth System Science Data - Tập 10 Số 4 - Trang 2141-2194
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, F. M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, G. C. Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin‐Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsuneo Ono, Prabir K. Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne J. Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andy Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, Bo Zheng
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.
Global CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; emissions from cement production, 1928–2017
Earth System Science Data - Tập 10 Số 4 - Trang 2213-2239
Robbie M. Andrew
Abstract. Global production of cement has grown very rapidly in recent years, and after fossil fuels and land-use change, it is the third-largest source of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. The availability of the required data for estimating emissions from global cement production is poor, and it has been recognised that some global estimates are significantly inflated. Here we assemble a large variety of available datasets, prioritising official data and emission factors, including estimates submitted to the UNFCCC plus new estimates for China and India, to present a new analysis of global process emissions from cement production. We show that global process emissions in 2017 were 1.48±0.20 Gt CO2, equivalent to about 4 % of emissions from fossil fuels. Cumulative emissions from 1928 to 2017 were 36.9±2.3 Gt CO2, 70 % of which have occurred since 1990. Emissions in 2016 were 28 % lower than those recently reported by the Global Carbon Project. The data associated with this article can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.831454.
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