Global Carbon Budget 2018

Earth System Science Data - Tập 10 Số 4 - Trang 2141-2194
Corinne Le Quéré1, Robbie M. Andrew2, Pierre Friedlingstein3, Stephen Sitch4, Judith Hauck5, Julia Pongratz6,7, Penelope A. Pickers8, Jan Ivar Korsbakken2, Glen P. Peters2, Josep G. Canadell9, Almut Arneth10, Vivek K. Arora11, Leticia Barbero12,13, Ana Bastos6, Laurent Bopp14, Frédéric Chevallier15, Louise Chini16, Philippe Ciais15, Scott C. Doney17, Thanos Gkritzalis18, Daniel Goll15, Ian Harris19, Vanessa Haverd20, F. M. Hoffman21, Mario Hoppema5, R. A. Houghton22, G. C. Hurtt16, Tatiana Ilyina7, Atul K. Jain23, Truls Johannessen24, Chris Jones25, Etsushi Kato26, Ralph F. Keeling27, Kees Klein Goldewijk28,29, Peter Landschützer7, Nathalie Lefèvre30, Sebastian Lienert31, Zhu Liu32,1, Danica Lombardozzi33, Nicolas Metzl30, David R. Munro34, Julia E. M. S. Nabel7, Shin‐Ichiro Nakaoka35, Craig Neill36,37, Are Olsen24, Tsuneo Ono38, Prabir K. Patra39, Anna Peregon15, Wouter Peters40,41, Philippe Peylin15, Benjamin Pfeil24,42, Denis Pierrot12,13, Benjamin Poulter43, Gregor Rehder44, Laure Resplandy45, Eddy Robertson25, Matthias Rocher46, Christian Rödenbeck47, Ute Schuster4, Jörg Schwinger42, Roland Séférian46, Ingunn Skjelvan42, Tobias Steinhoff48, Adrienne J. Sutton49, Pieter P. Tans50, Hanqin Tian51, Bronte Tilbrook36,37, Francesco N. Tubiello52, Ingrid T. Luijkx41, Guido R. van der Werf53, Nicolas Viovy15, Anthony P. Walker54, Andy Wiltshire25, Rebecca Wright8,1, Sönke Zaehle47, Bo Zheng15
1Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
2CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, Norway
3College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
4College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
5Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
6Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
7Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
8Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
9Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
10Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
11Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
12Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
13National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USA
14Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005 Paris, France
15Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
16Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA
17University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA
18Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), Wanelaarkaai 7, 8400 Ostend, Belgium
19NCAS-Climate, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
20CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
21Computational Earth Sciences Group, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
22Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
23Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
24Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway
25Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
26Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
27University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244, USA
28Faculty of Geosciences, Department IMEW, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Heidelberglaan 2, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC, Utrecht, the Netherlands
29PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, P.O. Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, the Netherlands
30Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06), CNRS, IRD, MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 75252 Paris, France
31Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
32Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
33National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
34Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
35Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
36Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
37CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, P.O. Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
38National Research Institute for Far Sea Fisheries, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama 236-8648, Japan
39Department of Environmental Geochemical Cycle Research, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
40Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 6, 9747 AG Groningen, the Netherlands
41Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
42NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen, Norway
43NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
44Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, 18119 Rostock, Germany
45Princeton University Department of Geosciences and Princeton Environmental Institute Princeton, New Jersey, USA
46Centre National de Recherche Météorologique, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31100 Toulouse, France
47Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
48GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel, Germany
49National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
50National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
51School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Ducan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
52Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00153, Italy
53Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
54Environmental Sciences Division & Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA

Tóm tắt

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.

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