American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
1945-7731
1945-774X
Mỹ
Cơ quản chủ quản: AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC , American Economic Association
Lĩnh vực:
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
Các bài báo tiêu biểu
Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers in recessions. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63)
Tập 4 Số 2 - Trang 1-27 - 2012
Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points? This paper uses tax return data to analyze bunching at the kink points of the US income tax schedule. We estimate the compensated elasticity of reported income with respect to (one minus) the marginal tax rate using bunching evidence. We find clear evidence of bunching around the first kink point of the Earned Income Tax Credit but concentrated solely among the self-employed. A simple tax evasion model can account for those results. We find evidence of bunching at the threshold of the first income tax bracket where tax liability starts but no evidence of bunching at any other kink point. (JEL H23, H24, H26)
Tập 2 Số 3 - Trang 180-212 - 2010
Do Child Tax Benefits Affect the Well-being of Children? Evidence from Canadian Child Benefit Expansions We exploit changes in child benefits in Canada to study the impact of family income on child and family well-being. Using variation in child benefits across province, time, and family type, we study outcomes spanning test scores, mental health, physical health, and deprivation measures. The findings suggest that child benefit programs had significant positive effects on test scores, maternal health, and mental health, among other measures. We find strong and interesting differences in the effects of benefits by child sex: benefits have stronger effects on educational outcomes and physical health for boys, and on mental health outcomes for girls. (JEL I12, I31, I38, J13)
Tập 3 Số 3 - Trang 175-205 - 2011
Greenhouse Gas Reductions under Low Carbon Fuel Standards? A low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by limiting the carbon intensity of fuels. We show this decreases high carbon fuel production but increases low carbon fuel production, possibly increasing net carbon emissions. The LCFS cannot be efficient, and the best LCFS may be nonbinding. We simulate a national LCFS on gasoline and ethanol. For a broad parameter range, emissions decrease, energy prices increase, abatement costs are large ($80–$760 billion annually), and average abatement costs are large ($307–$2,272 per CO2 metric ton). A cost effective policy has much lower average abatement costs ($60–$868). (JEL Q54, Q58)
Tập 1 Số 1 - Trang 106-146 - 2009
Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes. Preannounced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output, investment, and hours worked while real wages increase. There are no significant anticipation effects on aggregate consumption. Implemented tax cuts, regardless of their timing, have expansionary effects, on output, consumption, investment, hours worked, and real wages. Results are shown to be robust. Tax shocks are important impulses to the US business cycle and anticipation effects have been important during several business cycle episodes. (JEL E23, E32, E62, H20, H30)
Tập 4 Số 2 - Trang 145-181 - 2012
Estimating Taxable Income Responses Using Danish Tax Reforms This paper estimates taxable income responses using a series of Danish tax reforms and population-wide administrative data since 1980. The tax variation and data in Denmark makes it possible to overcome the biases from nontax changes in inequality and mean reversion that plague the existing literature. We provide compelling graphical evidence of taxable income responses, arguably representing the first nonparametrically identified evidence of taxable income elasticities using tax reforms. We also present panel regression evidence that is extremely robust to specification, unlike previous results which have been very sensitive. (JEL D31, H24, H31, J22)
Tập 6 Số 4 - Trang 271-301 - 2014
Would People Behave Differently If They Better Understood Social Security? Evidence from a Field Experiment This paper presents the results of a randomized field experiment that provided information about key Social Security features to older workers. The experiment was designed to examine whether it is possible to affect individual behavior using a relatively inexpensive informational intervention about the provisions of a public program and to explore the mechanisms underlying the behavior change. We find that our relatively mild intervention (sending an informational brochure and an invitation to a web-tutorial) increased labor force participation one year later by 4 percentage points relative to the control group mean of 74 percent. (JEL C93, D12, H55)
Tập 7 Số 1 - Trang 275-299 - 2015
Discrimination in Grading We report the results of an experiment that was designed to test for discrimination in grading in India. We recruited teachers to grade exams. We randomly assigned child “characteristics” (age, gender, and caste) to the cover sheets of the exams to ensure that there is no relationship between these observed characteristics and the exam quality. We find that teachers give exams that are assigned to be lower caste scores that are about 0.03 to 0.08 standard deviations lower than those that are assigned to be high caste. The teachers' behavior appears consistent with statistical discrimination. (JEL I21, J13, O15, O17, Z13)
Tập 4 Số 4 - Trang 146-168 - 2012
Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxes: Evidence from Sweden This paper provides an empirical assessment of an annual wealth tax. Using Swedish administrative data, I estimate net-of-tax-rate elasticities of taxable wealth in the range [0.09, 0.27]. Cross-checking self-reported assets against asset data unavailable to the tax agency reveals that around a third of the elasticity estimates are due to underreporting of asset values. Difference-in-difference designs further suggest that the responses reflect evasion and avoidance rather than changes in saving. (JEL H24, H26, H31)
Tập 9 Số 4 - Trang 395-421 - 2017