Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy - Tập 4 Số 2 - Trang 145-181 - 2012
Karel Mertens1, Morten O. Ravn2
1Cornell University, Department of Economics, 404 Uris Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853.
2University College London and CEPR, Department of Economics, Drayton House, Gordon Street, London WC1 6BT, UK.

Tóm tắt

We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes. Preannounced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output, investment, and hours worked while real wages increase. There are no significant anticipation effects on aggregate consumption. Implemented tax cuts, regardless of their timing, have expansionary effects, on output, consumption, investment, hours worked, and real wages. Results are shown to be robust. Tax shocks are important impulses to the US business cycle and anticipation effects have been important during several business cycle episodes. (JEL E23, E32, E62, H20, H30)

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Thông tin xuất bản

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

Tập 4 Số 2

145-181

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