Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Chúng ta có phải là một gia đình? Quản trị và triển vọng bất ổn tại châu Âu
Tóm tắt
Mặc dù châu Âu đã phải đối mặt với những thử thách trong cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính và những chính sách thắt lưng buộc bụng sau đó, lục địa châu Âu vẫn được coi là một trong những khu vực ổn định nhất trên hành tinh. Tuy nhiên, bài báo này lập luận rằng có những xu hướng toàn diện ở châu Âu mà nếu không được giải quyết, sẽ tương hỗ với nhau để gây ra sự bất ổn. Bài báo áp dụng lý thuyết dân chủ đồng chia của Arend Lijphart, hay còn gọi là hòa giải tinh hoa, và lý thuyết trò chơi hai cấp của Robert Putnam vào sự hội nhập châu Âu, sử dụng những lý thuyết này như một lăng kính để xem xét sự phát triển ngày càng sâu sắc của bất ổn trong môi trường châu Âu: sự suy giảm dân số, di cư, chủ nghĩa dân túy, và sự thiếu hụt giáo dục cũng như lao động. Các xu hướng này được phân tích về quy mô và tính bền vững của chúng cũng như tác động xã hội, kinh tế và chính trị của chúng đối với các quốc gia thành viên EU, nhấn mạnh những lựa chọn mà tầng lớp tinh hoa phải thực hiện để điều hướng thành công các xu hướng này và bảo tồn dự án châu Âu.
Từ khóa
#châu Âu #dân chủ đồng chia #sự bất ổn #sự hội nhập châu Âu #chủ nghĩa dân túy #di cư #suy giảm dân sốTài liệu tham khảo
Magone JM (2011) Contemporary european politics: A comparative introduction. Routledge, New York
Haas, E B (1998) The Uniting of Europe. In: Nelsen B, Stubb A (eds) The European Union, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc, Boulder, CO, pp. 139–143
Best H, Lengyel G, Verzichelli L (2012) Introduction: European integration as an elite project. In: Best H, Lengyel G, Verzichelli L (eds) The Europe of elites: A study into the europeanness of Europe’s political and economic elites. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 1–13
Lipset SM (1960) Political Man: The social bases of politics. Doubleday & Co., New York
Ljiphart A (1969) Consociational democracy. World Politics 21(2):207–225
Sinardet D (2010) From consociational consciousness to majoritarian myth: Consociational democracy, multi-level politics and the Belgian case of Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde. Acta Politica 45, 3: 346–369. Also see “Consociational Democracy: The Views of Arend Lijphart and Collected Criticisms” by Rinus van Schendelen published in The Political Science Reviewer in 1985.
Ljiphart A (1968) The Politics of Accommodation: Pluralism and Democracy in the Netherlands. University of California Press, Los Angeles, emphasis in original. See also Markus Crepaz’s comments in “Consociational Interpretations of the European Union” by Matthijs Bogaards and Markus M.L. Crepaz, published in European Union Politics in 2002.
Ljiphart A (1968) The politics of accommodation: Pluralism and democracy in the Netherlands. University of California Press, Los Angeles
Best H (2012) Elite foundations of european integration: A causal analysis. In: Best H, Lengyel G, Verzichelli L (eds) The Europe of elites: A study into the europeanness of Europe’s political and economic elites. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 208–233
Von Koch D (December 27, 1999) Die Brusseler Republik. Der Spiegel. Quoted in: Muller WC, Jenny M, Ecker A, The Elites-Masses Gap in European Integration. In: Best H, Lengyel G, Verzichelli L (eds) The Europe of Elites: A Study into the Europeanness of Europe’s Political and Economic Elites. Oxford University Press, New York pp. 167–191
Bogaards M, Crepaz MML (2002) Consociational interpretations of the european union. European Union Politics 3:357–381
Anheier HK (ed) Europe 2025 Working Group I: The Founding Narrative: Towards a New raison d’être of the European Union – Europe. Land of Freedom. Land of Solidarity. Hertie School of Governance, Berlin. http://www.hertie-school.org/fileadmin/images/Downloads/europe2025/europe2025_workinggroup1_web.pdf
European Commission (Spring 2014) Public Opinion in the European Union: First Results. Standard Eurobarometer 81. http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.htm
Howe N, Jackson R (2012) Demography and geopolitics: Understanding Today’s debate in its historical and intellectual context. In: Goldstone JA, Kaufmann EP, Toft MD (eds) Political demography. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 31–48
Goldstone JA (2012) A theory of political demography. In: Goldstone JA, Kaufmann EP, Toft MD (eds) Political demography. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 10–28
Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union 2010/C 83/02 (March 30, 2010) Official Journal of the European Union C 83/38
Haas ML (2012) America’s golden years? U.S. Security in an aging world. In: Goldstone JA, Kaufmann EP, Toft MD (eds) Political demography. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 49–62
Smale A (July 27, 2014) A Dwindling Army Tempts New Recruits With a Charm Offensive. The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/28/world/europe/german-army-a-dwindling-army-tempts-new-recruits-with-a-charm-offensive.html?_r=0. Accessed 27 July 2014
Jackson R, Howe N (2008) The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century. Center for Strategic and International Studies. http://csis.org/publication/graying-great-powers-0
Beer J (March 30, 2014) To Encourage Holiday Sex That Results In Babies, A Danish Campaign Offers “Ovulation Discount” Fast Company. http://www.fastcocreate.com/3028402/to-encourage-holiday-sex-that-results-in-babies-a-danish-campaign-offers-ovulation-discount Accessed 27 June 2014
Berlin Institute for Population and Development (2008) Europe’s Demographic Future: Growing Imbalances. http://www.berlin-institut.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Europa/Kurz_Europa_e_Map.pdf
Sobotka T, Skirbekk V, Philipov D (2010) Economic recession and fertility in the developed world: A literature review. Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna
European Commission (February 2013) Social Investment Package: Key Facts and Figures. http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1044
Eurostat (2014) Population structure and ageing. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Population_structure_and_ageing
Hoorens S, et al. (2013) Europe’s Societal Challenges: An Analysis of Global Societal Trends to 2030 and their Impact on the EU. RAND Europe and The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR479.html
Guerin B (2013) Demography and inequality. RAND Europe, Cambridge
Scherbov S, Sanderson W, Mamolo M (2014) Quantifying policy trade-offs to support aging populations. Demographic Research 30, 20: 579–608. http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol30/20/30-20.pdf
European Commission (March 2013) European Employment and Social Situation, Quarterly Review. http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=89&newsId=1852&furtherNews=yes
European Commission (2013) Communication from the Commission: Towards Social Investment for Growth and Cohesion – including implementing the European Social Fund 2014–2020. http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1044; European Commission (2014) Policy Roadmap for the 2014 Implementation of the Social Investment Package. http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1044; Goldstone JA (2012) Demographic Megatrends: Key Global Population Changes, their Consequences and Interactions with other Megatrends: 2010–2050. In: Bertelsmann Foundation (ed) Megatrends in Global Interaction, Bertelsmann Foundation, Gutersloh, Germany
Eurostat. Statistics Database. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Spiegel Staff (May 20, 2013) Jobless Youth: Europe’s Hollow Efforts to Save a Lost Generation. Spiegel Online. http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-failing-to-combat-youth-unemployment-a-900621.html
Buck T (April 25, 2013) Stuck on the Sidelines. Financial Times.
OECD (2014) OECD Employment Outlook 2014. OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook-2014-en
Popp M (June 5, 2014) Immigration to Germany: ‘Better Qualified Than the Domestic Population. Spiegel Online. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-on-german-demographics-immigration-and-integration-a-973320.html
Spiegel Staff (February 17, 2014) Europe Gripped by Immigration Worries. Spiegel Online.
Warrell, H (May 14, 2014) EU Migration Data Fuel Political Debate. Financial Times.
Frontex. (2014) Annual Risk Analysis 2014. Frontex, Warsaw, Poland. www.frontex.europa.eu
Faiola A (September 9, 2014) Amid Flood of Refugees to Europe, Italy Opens a Back Door. Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/migrant-crisis-hits-europe/2014/09/09/5dd8012d-cbe0-4a8a-895a-033d5a6794f6_story.html
Park J (April 28, 2014) Europe’s Migration Crisis. Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/migration/europes-migration-crisis/p32874
PEW Research Center (2014) A fragile rebound for EU image on eve of European Parliament elections. PEW Research Center. http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2014/05/2014-05-12_Pew-Global-Attitudes-European-Union.pdf
Van Nimwegen N, van der Erf R (2010) Europe at the crossroads: Demographic challenges and international migration. J Ethn Migr Stud 36(9):1359–1379
European Platform for Investing in Children (2013) Education and integration of second-generation migrant children in Europe. European Union. http://europa.eu/epic/news/2013/20130530-education-integration-migrant-children_en.htm
Goldstone JA (2012) Demographic Megatrends: Key Global Population Changes, their Consequences and Interactions with other Megatrends: 2010–2050. In: Bertelsmann Foundation (ed) Megatrends in Global Interaction, Bertelsmann Foundation, Gutersloh, Germany
Wike R (May 14, 2014) In Europe, sentiment against immigrants, minorities runs high. PEW Research Center. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/05/14/in-europe-sentiment-against-immigrants-minorities-runs-high/
Coleman D (2012) The Changing Face of Europe In: Goldstone JA, Kaufmann EP, Toft MD (eds) Political Demography. Oxford University Press, New York pp 176–193
[Reference] Buck T (November 21, 2014) Spain’s surging Podemos party rushes to get to the top. The Financial Times. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/697bfd1c-70dc-11e4-85d5-00144feabdc0.html
Fieschi C, Morris M, Caballero L (2012) Recapturing the Reluctant Radical: how to win back Europe’s populist vote. Counterpoint. http://counterpoint.uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/E-version-Recapturing-the-Reluctant-Radical-September-2012.pdf
Putnam R (1988) Diplomacy and domestic politics: The logic of two-level games. Int Organ 42(3):427–460