The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population

Epidemics - Tập 13 - Trang 56-64 - 2015
Nicholas Geard1,2, Kathryn Glass3, James M. McCaw1,4, Emma S. McBryde5,6, Kevin B. Korb2, Matt J. Keeling7, Jodie McVernon1,4
1Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, 207 Bouverie Street, The University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
2Clayton School of Information Technology, Building 63, Monash University Clayton Campus, Wellington Road, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia
3National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Building 62, Cnr of Eggleston and Mills Roads, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
4Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Flemington Road, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia
5Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, 1 James Cook Drive, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
6Department of Medicine, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, Clinical Sciences Building, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Royal Parade, Parkville, VIC 3050, Australia
7Biological Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Rd, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Hope-Simpson, 1970, First outbreak of Hong Kong influenza in a general practice population in Great Britain, Br. Med. J., 3, 74, 10.1136/bmj.3.5714.74

Livi-Bacci, 1997

John, 1990, Endemic disease in host populations with fully specified demography, Theor. Popul. Biol., 37, 455, 10.1016/0040-5809(90)90048-Z

Manfredi, 2004, Realistic population dynamics in epidemiological models: the impact of population decline on the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases. Measles in Italy as an example, Math. Biosci., 192, 153, 10.1016/j.mbs.2004.11.006

Anderson, 1992

Keeling, 2007

Hethcote, 2000, The mathematics of infectious diseases, SIAM Rev., 42, 599, 10.1137/S0036144500371907

Hall, 1996, Preventing epidemics in a community of households, Epidemiol. Infect., 117, 443, 10.1017/S0950268800059100

House, 2009, Household structure and infectious disease transmission, Epidemiol. Infect., 137, 654, 10.1017/S0950268808001416

Glass, 2011, Incorporating population dynamics into household models of infectious disease transmission, Epidemics, 3, 152, 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.05.001

Finkenstädt, 2000, Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach, J. R. Stat. Soc. C, 49, 187, 10.1111/1467-9876.00187

Williams, 2004, Ageing populations and childhood infections: the potential impact on epidemic patterns and morbidity, Int. J. Epidemiol., 33, 566, 10.1093/ije/dyh098

Gao, 2006, Simulations of rubella vaccination strategies in China, Math. Biosci., 202, 371, 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.02.005

Iannelli, 2007, Demographic change and immigration in age-structured epidemic models, Math. Popul. Stud., 14, 161, 10.1080/08898480701426241

Cummings, 2009, The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling, PLoS Med., 6, e1000139, 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000139

McDonald, 2012, A. van Lier, D. Plass, M. E. Kretzschmar, The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands, BMC Public Health, 12, 1046, 10.1186/1471-2458-12-1046

Merler, 2014, Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy, Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci., 281, 20132676, 10.1098/rspb.2013.2676

Liu, 2014, Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model, PLOS ONE, 9, e84961, 10.1371/journal.pone.0084961

Marziano, 2015, The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study, Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci., 282, 20142509, 10.1098/rspb.2014.2509

Eubank, 2004, Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks, Nature, 429, 180, 10.1038/nature02541

Ferguson, 2005, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia, Nature, 437, 209, 10.1038/nature04017

Ajelli, 2009, An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission, J. Theor. Biol., 259, 478, 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.03.038

Guzzetta, 2011, Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting, J. Theor. Biol., 289, 197, 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.032

Silhol, 2011, Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella, PLoS Comput. Biol., 7, e1002105, 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002105

Geard, 2013, Synthetic population dynamics: a model of household demography, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul., 16, 8, 10.18564/jasss.2098

Mossong, 2008, Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases., PLoS Med., 5, e74, 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074

Hethcote, 1996, Modeling heterogeneous mixing in infectious disease dynamics, 215

van Boven, 2010, Transmission of novel influenza A(H1N1) in households with post-exposure antiviral prophylaxis, PLoS ONE, 5, 1, 10.1371/journal.pone.0011442

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2008

de Vaus, 2004

Wilkins, 2011

Jennings, 1999, Household size and the Poisson distribution, J. Austr. Popul. Assoc., 16, 65

Hugo, 2001, A century of population change in Australia

Metcalf, 2011, Modelling the first dose of measles vaccination: the role of maternal immunity, demographic factors, and delivery systems, Epidemiol. Infect., 139, 265, 10.1017/S0950268810001329

Smith, 2004, Children who have received no vaccines: who are they and where do they live?, Pediatrics, 114, 187, 10.1542/peds.114.1.187

Ferrari, 2013, Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B: Biol. Sci., 368, 20120141, 10.1098/rstb.2012.0141

Schellekens, 2005, Pertussis sources of infection and routes of transmission in the vaccination era, Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J., 24, S19, 10.1097/01.inf.0000160909.24879.e6

Jardine, 2010, Who gives pertussis to infants?, Commun. Dis. Intell., 34, 116

Ball, 2002, Optimal vaccination policies for stochastic epidemics among a population of households, Math. Biosci., 177–178, 333, 10.1016/S0025-5564(01)00095-5

Luman, 2003, Maternal characteristics associated with vaccination of young children, Pediatrics, 111, 1215, 10.1542/peds.111.S1.1215

Edmunds, 1997, Who mixes with whom? A method to determine the contact patterns of adults that may lead to the spread of airborne infections, Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci., 264, 949, 10.1098/rspb.1997.0131

Wallinga, 1999, Perspective: human contact patterns and the spread of airborne infectious diseases, Trends Microbiol., 7, 372, 10.1016/S0966-842X(99)01546-2

Read, 2014, Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China, Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci., 281, 20140268, 10.1098/rspb.2014.0268

Stein, 2014, Online respondent-driven sampling for studying contact patterns relevant for the spread of close-contact pathogens: a pilot study in Thailand, PlOS ONE, 9, e85256, 10.1371/journal.pone.0085256

Horby, 2011, Social contact patterns in Vietnam and implications for the control of infectious diseases, PloS ONE, 6, e16965, 10.1371/journal.pone.0016965

Fumanelli, 2012, Inferring the structure of social contacts from demographic data in the analysis of infectious diseases spread, PLoS Comput. Biol., 8, e1002673, 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002673

Gunning, 2014, Conserved patterns of incomplete reporting in pre-vaccine era childhood diseases, Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci., 281, 20140886, 10.1098/rspb.2014.0886

McLean, 1995, After the honeymoon in measles control, Lancet, 345, 272, 10.1016/S0140-6736(95)90272-4

Waaijenborg, 2013, Waning of maternal antibodies against measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella in communities with contrasting vaccination coverage, J. Infect. Dis., 208, 10.1093/infdis/jit143

Coudeville, 2008, Adult pertussis vaccination strategies and their impact on pertussis in the United States: evaluation of routine and targeted (cocoon) strategies, Epidemiol. Infect., 136, 604, 10.1017/S0950268807009041

Campbell, P., McVernon, J., Geard, N. Determining best strategies for maternally-targeted pertussis vaccination using an individual-based model. Am. J. Epidemiol. (submitted for publication).

Getis, 2003, Characteristics of the spatial pattern of the dengue vector, Aedesaegypti, in Iquitos, Peru, Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 69, 494, 10.4269/ajtmh.2003.69.494

Stein-Zamir, 2012, Who are the children at risk? Lessons learned from measles outbreaks, Epidemiol. Infect., 140, 1578, 10.1017/S095026881100238X

Larson, 2015, Measuring vaccine confidence: introducing a global vaccine confidence index, PLOS Curr. Outbreaks, 1

Lessler, 2013, Balancing evidence and uncertainty when considering rubella vaccine introduction, PLOS ONE, 8, 10.1371/journal.pone.0067639

Metcalf, 2012, Impact of birth rate, seasonality and transmission rate on minimum levels of coverage needed for rubella vaccination, Epidemiol. Infect., 140, 2290, 10.1017/S0950268812000131