The consequences of exchange rate trends on international tourism demand: evidence from India
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Abbott AJ, De Vita G (2011) Evidence of the impact of exchange regimes on bilateral FDI flows. J Econ Stud 38:253–274
Abbott A, Cushman DO, De Vita G (2012) Exchange rate regimes and foreign direct investment flows to developing countries. Rev Int Econ 20:95–107
Agiomirgianakis G, Serenis D, Tsounis N (2014) Exchange rate volatility and tourist flows into Turkey. J Econ Integr 29:700–725. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2014.29.4.700
Agiomirgianakis G, Serenis D, Tsounis N (2015a) Effects of exchange rate volatility on tourist flows into Iceland. Procedia Econ Finance 24:25–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00608-5
Agiomirgianakis G, Serenis D, Tsounis N (2015b) The effects of exchange rate volatility on tourist flows: evidence from the UK and Sweden. Int J Tour Policy 6:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTP.2015.075128
Alegre J, Pou L (2004) Micro-economic determinants of the probability of tourism consumption. Tour Econ 10:125–144
Artus JR (1970) The effect of revaluation on the foreign travel balance of Germany. IMF Econ Rev 17:602–619. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866360
Balaguer J, Cantavella-Jordá M (2002) Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Appl Econ 34:877–884. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110058923
Banerjee A, Dolado J, Mestre R (1998) Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. J Time Ser Anal 19:267–283. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00091
Belloumi M (2010) The relationship between tourism receipts, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Tunisia. Int J Tour Res 12:550–560. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.774
Berkhout E (2007) An econometric analysis of tourism inflow in Curaçao: can tourism price indices help us out. In: First conference of the international association for tourism economics
Bonn MA, Leslie Furr H, Uysal M (1992) Seasonal variation of coastal resort visitors: Hilton Head Island. J Travel Res 31:50–56. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728759203100110
Brown RL, Durbin J, Evans JM (1975) Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. J R Stat Soc 37:149–192
Butler R (1998) Seasonality in tourism: issues and implications. Tour Rev 53:18–24. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb058278
Carey K (1991) Estimation of Caribbean tourism demand: issues in measurement and methodology. Atl Econ J 19:32–40
Chadeeand D, Mieczkowski Z (1987) An empirical analysis of the effects of the exchange rate on Canadian tourism. J Travel Res 26:13–17. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728758702600103
Chang C-L, Mcaleer M (2009) Daily tourist arrivals, exchange rates and volatility for Korea and Taiwan. Korean Econ Rev 25:241–267
Chao C-C, Lu L-J, Lai C-C, Hu S-W, Wang V (2013) Devaluation, pass-through and foreign reserves dynamics in a tourism economy. Econ Model 30:456–461
Chasapopoulos P, Den Butter FAG, Mihaylov E (2014) Demand for tourism in Greece: a panel data analysis using the gravity model. Int J Tour Policy 5:173–191. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTP.2014.063105
Chatziantoniou I, Filis G, Eeckels B, Apostolakis A (2013) Oil prices, tourism income and economic growth: a structural VAR approach for European Mediterranean countries. Tour Manag 36:331–341
Chen M-H (2008) Causal relations among tourism development, exchange rate, exports and economic activity. In: Ramos AD, Jimenez PS (eds) Tourism development: economics, management and strategy. Nova Science, New York, pp 101–144
Cheng KM, Kim H, Thompson H (2013) The real exchange rate and the balance of trade in US tourism. Int Rev Econ Finance 25:122–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2012.06.007
Cho V (2001) Tourism forecasting and its relationship with leading economic indicators. J Hosp Tour 25:399–420
Coakley J, Fuertes A-M, Spagnolo F (2004) Is the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle history? Manch Sch 72:569–590. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2004.00409.x
Crouch GI (1994a) Currency exchange rates and the demand for international tourism. J Travel Res 33:61–61. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728759403300262
Crouch GI (1994b) Price elasticities in international tourism. Hosp Res J 17:27–39. https://doi.org/10.1177/109634809401700304
Crouch GI (1994c) The study of international tourism demand: a survey of practice. J Travel Res 32:41–55. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728759403200408
Crouch GI (1994d) Demand elasticities for short-haul versus long-haul tourism. J Travel Res 33:2–7. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728759403300201
Crouch GI (1994e) The study of international tourism demand: a review of findings. J Travel Res 33:12–23. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728759403300102
Crouch GI (1995) A meta-analysis of tourism demand. Ann Tour Res 22:103–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(94)00054-V
Crouch GI (1996) Demand elasticities in international marketing. J Bus Res 36:117–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-2963(95)00086-0
Crouch GI, Schultz L, Valerio P (1992) Marketing international tourism to Australia: a regression analysis. Tour Manag 13:196–208
De Vita G (2014) The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows. Tour Manag 45:226–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.05.001
De Vita G, Kyaw KS (2013) Role of the exchange rate in tourism demand. Ann Tour Res 43:624–627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2013.07.011
Dhariwal R (2005) Tourist arrivals in India: how important are domestic disorders? Tour Econ 11:185–205. https://doi.org/10.5367/0000000054183522
Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econom J Econom Soc 49:1057–1072
Divisekera S (2003) A model of demand for international tourism. Ann Tour Res 30:31–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(02)00029-4
Dogru T, Sirakaya-Turk E (2016) Modeling Turkish outbound tourism demand using a dynamic panel data approach. Tour Hosp Res 18:411–414. https://doi.org/10.1177/1467358416663822
Dritsakis N (2004) Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece. Tour Manag 25:111–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00061-X
Dwyer L, Forsyth P, Rao P (2002) Destination price competitiveness: exchange rate changes versus domestic inflation. J Travel Res 40:328–336. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287502040003010
Edwards A (1995) Asia-Pacific travel forecasts to 2005. Economist Intelligence Unit, London
Eilat Y, Einav L (2004) Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis. Appl Econ 36:1315–1327. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368404000180897
Garín-Muñoz T (2006) Inbound international tourism to Canary Islands: a dynamic panel data model. Tour Manag 27:281–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2004.10.002
Garin-Munoz T, Amaral TP (2000) An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain. Appl Econ Lett 7:525–529. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850050033319
Gerakis AS (1965) Effects of exchange-rate devaluations and revaluations on receipts from tourism. Staff Pap Int Monet Fund 12:365–384. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866335
Ghosh RN, Siddique MAB, Gabbay R (2003) Essays on development issues: India and the Indian Ocean Region. Atlantic Publishers & Dist, Chennai
Goral R, Akgoz E (2017) Tourism price competition index for national destinations. J Tour Manag Res 4:17–29
Gray HP (1966) The demand for international travel by the United States and Canada. Int Econ Rev 7:83–92
Greenwood JB (2007) Sustainable development in a tourism destination context: a Plimsoll model of sustainability for Tyrrell County, North Carolina
Gunduz L, Hatemi-J A (2005) Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Appl Econ Lett 12:499–504. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500109865
Harris R, Sollis R (2003) Applied time series modelling and forecasting. Wiley, New York. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.11.006
Jalil A, Feridun M, Ma Y (2010) Finance-growth nexus in China revisited: new evidence from principal components and ARDL bounds tests. Int Rev Econ Finance 19:189–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2009.10.005
Jang SS (2004) Mitigating tourism seasonality. Ann Tour Res 31:819–836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2004.02.007
Kah JA, Lee S-H (2013) The value of Japanese Yen and Japanese tourism in Korea. Int J Digit Content Technol Appl 7:302–306
Kang JW, Dagli S (2018) International trade and exchange rates. J Appl Econ 2:84–105. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2018.1526878
Kaur A (2017) A thriving industry but… Business Today. Business Today. November 15
Kim J, Lee C-K (2017) Role of tourism price in attracting international tourists: the case of Japanese inbound tourism from South Korea. J Destin Mark Manag 6:76–83
Law R, Goh C, Pine R (2004) Modeling tourism demand: a decision rules based approach. J Travel Tour Mark 16:61–69. https://doi.org/10.1300/J073v16n02_05
Lee C-K (1996) Major determinants of international tourism demand for South Korea: inclusion of marketing variable. J Travel Tour Mark 5:101–118. https://doi.org/10.1300/J073v05n01_07
Lee C-K, Var T, Blaine TW (1996) Determinants of inbound tourist expenditures. Ann Tour Res 23:527–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(95)00073-9
Li G, Song H, Witt SF (2005) Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting. J Travel Res 44:82–99. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287505276594
Liew VK-S (2004) Which lag length selection criteria should we employ? Econ Bull 3:1–9
Lim C (1997) Review of international tourism demand models. Ann Tour Res 24:835–849. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00049-2
Lim C (2006) A survey of tourism demand modeling practice: issues and implications. In: Dwyer L, Forsyth P (eds) International handbook on the economics of tourism. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, pp 45–72
Lin T-B, Sun Y-W (1983) Tourism in Asia: the economic impact. In: Pye EA, Lin T-B (eds) Tourism in Asia: the economic impact. Singapore University Press, Singapore
Lütkepohl H (2006) Structural vector autoregressive analysis for cointegrated variables. Allg Stat Arch 90:75–88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10182-006-0222-4
Madhavan H, Rastogi R (2013) Social and psychological factors influencing destination preferences of domestic tourists in India. Leis Stud 32:207–217. https://doi.org/10.1080/02614367.2011.632781
Martin CA, Witt SF (1987) Tourism demand forecasting models. Tour Manag 8:233–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5177(87)90055-0
Martin CA, Witt SF (1988) Substitute prices in models of tourism demand. Ann Tour Res 15:255–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(88)90086-2
Morley CL (1992) A microeconomic theory of international tourism demand. Ann Tour Res 19:250–267. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(92)90080-9
Morley CL (1994) Discrete choice analysis of the impact of tourism prices. J Travel Res 33:8–14. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728759403300202
Narayan PK (2003) Tourism demand modelling: some issues regarding unit roots, cointegration and diagnostic tests. Int J Tour Res 5:369–380. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.440
Oh C-O (2005) The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tour Manag 26:39–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2003.09.014
Önder AÖ, Candemir A, Kumral N (2009) An empirical analysis of the determinants of international tourism demand: the case of Izmir. Eur Plan Stud 17:1525–1533. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654310903141748
Ouattara B (2004) Modelling the long run determinants of private investment in Senegal. (No. 04/05). Credit research paper
Patsouratis V, Frangouli Z, Anastasopoulos G (2005) Competition in tourism among the Mediterranean countries. Appl Econ 37:1865–1870. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500217226
Peng GB, Song H, Witt SF (2012) Demand modeling and forecasting. In: Dwyer L, Gill A, Seetaram N (eds) Handbook of research methods in tourism-quantitative and qualitative approaches. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, pp 71–90
Pesaran MH, Shin Y (1999) An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis in Strom. In: Strom S (ed) Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: the Ragnar Frisch centennial symposium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 371–413
Pesaran M Hashem, Shin Y, Smith RJ (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J Appl Econom 16:289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips PC, Perron P (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75:335–346
Prideaux B (2005) Factors affecting bilateral tourism flows. Ann Tour Res 32:780–801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2004.04.008
Quadri DL, Zheng T (2010) A revisit to the impact of exchange rates on tourism demand: the case of Italy. J Hosp Financ Manag 18:47–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/10913211.2010.10653894
Rosselló J, Aguiló E, Riera A (2005) Modeling tourism demand dynamics. J Travel Res 44:111–116. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287505276602
Santana-Gallego M, Ledesma-Rodríguez FJ, Pérez-Rodríguez JV (2010) Exchange rate regimes and tourism. Tour Econ 16:25–43. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010790872015
Shen S, Li G, Song H (2011) Combination forecasts of international tourism demand. Ann Tour Res 38:72–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2010.05.003
Soesilo JA, Mings RC (1987) Assessing the seasonality of tourism. Vis Leis Bus 6:25–38
Song H, Li G (2008) Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—a review of recent research. Tour Manag 29:203–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016
Song H, Turner L (2006) Tourism demand forecasting. In: Dwyer L, Forsyth P (eds) International handbook on the economics of tourism. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, pp 89–114
UNWTO (2018) UNWTO’s World Tourism Barometer, vol 16
UNWTO Tourism Highlights: 2018 Edition (2018) UNWTO eLibrary. World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Uysal M, Crompton JL (1984) Determinants of demand for international tourist flows to Turkey. Tour Manag 5:288–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5177(84)90025-6
Uysal M, Sherif El Roubi M (1999) Artificial neural networks versus multiple regression in tourism demand analysis. J Travel Res 38:111–118. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728759903800203
Wang Y-S (2009) The impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on Taiwan’s international inbound tourism demand. Tour Manag 30:75–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.04.010
Webber AG (2001) Exchange rate volatility and cointegration in tourism demand. J Travel Res 39:398–405. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750103900406
Witt SF, Martin CA (1987) International tourism-demand models: inclusion of marketing variables. Tour Manag 8:33–40
Witt SF, Witt CA (1995) Forecasting tourism demand: a review of empirical research. Int J Forecast 11:447–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(95)00591-7
WTTC (2016) Exchange rate trends and travel & tourism performance. World Travel and Tourism Council: 20
WTTC (2018) The economic impact of global travel & tourism
Yap G (2012) An examination of the effects of exchange rates on Australia’s inbound tourism growth: a multivariate conditional volatility approach. Int J Bus Stud 20:111–132
