The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Allen MR, Frame DJ, Huntingford C, Jones CD, Lowe JA, Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N (2009) Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature 458(7242):1163
Archer D, Brovkin V (2008) The millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. Clim Chang 90(3):283–297
Butchart N, Scaife AA (2001) Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate. Nature 410(6830):799–802
Butler JH, Battle M, Bender ML, Montzka SA, Clarke AD, Saltzman ES, Sucher CM, Severinghaus JP, Elkins JW (1999) A record of atmospheric halocarbons during the twentieth century from polar firn air. Nature 399(6738):749–755
Calvin KV, Edmonds J, Bond-Lamberty B, Clarke LE, Kim SH, Kyle GP, Smith SJ, Thomson AM, Wise MA (2009) 2.6: Limiting climate change to 450 ppm CO2 Equivalent in the 21st Century. Energy Econ 31:S107–S120
Canadell JG, Le Quere C, Raupach MR, Field CB, Buitenhuis ET, Ciais P, Conway TJ, Gillett NP, Houghton RA, Marland G (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(47):18866–18870
Clarke L, Edmonds J, Jacoby H, Pitcher H, Reilly J, Richels R (2007) Scenarios of the greenhouse gas emission and atmospheric concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, USA, Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, p 154
Clerbaux C, Cunnold D, Anderson J, Bernath P, Engel A, Fraser PJ, Mahieu E, Manning AC, Miller J, Montzka SA, Prinn R, Reimann S, Rinsland CP, Simmonds P, Verdonik D, Wuebbles D, Yokouchi Y (2007) Long-lived compounds, Chapter 2. Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No. 50. World Meteorological Organization. Geneva
Conway TJ, Tans PP, Waterman LS, Thoning KW (1994) Evidence for interannual variability of the carbon-cycle from the national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration climate-monitoring-and-diagnostics-laboratory global-air-sampling-network. J Geophys Res Atmos 99(D11):22831–22855
Culbertson JA, Prins JM, Grimsrud EP, Rasmussen RA, Khalil MAK, Shearer MJ (2004) Observed trends for CF3-containing compounds in background air at Cape Meares, Oregon, Point Barrow, Alaska, and Palmer Station, Antarctica. Chemosphere 55(8):1109–1119
Daniel JS, Velders GJM, Douglass AR, Forster PMD, Hauglustaine DA, Isaksen ISA, Kuijpers LJM, McCulloch A, Wallington TJ (2007) Halocarbon scenarios, ozone depletion potentials, and global warming potentials, Chapter 8. Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No. 50. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
Deeds DA, Muhle J, Weiss RF (2008) Tetrafluoromethane in the deep North Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 35(14)
DeFries RS, Houghton RA, Hansen MC, Field CB, Skole D, Townshend J (2002) Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and regrowth based on satellite observations for the 1980s and 1990s. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99(22):14256–14261
Dlugokencky EJ, Steele LP, Lang PM, Masarie KA (1994) The growth-rate and distribution of atmospheric methane. J Geophys Res Atmos 99(D8):17021–17043
EC-JRC and PBL (2009) European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)—Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.0. from http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Ehhalt D, Prather MJ, Dentener F, Derwent RG, Dlugokencky E, Holland E, Isaksen ISA, Katima J, Kirchhoff V, Matson P, Midgley P, Wang M (2001) Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ et al (eds) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 892
Etheridge DM, Steele LP, Francey RJ, Langenfelds RL (1998a) Atmospheric methane between 1000 AD and present: evidence of anthropogenic emissions and climatic variability. J Geophys Res Atmos 103(D13):15979–15993
Etheridge DM, Steele LP, Langenfelds RL, Francey RJ, Barnola JM, Morgan VI (1998b) Historical CO2 record from the Law Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS ice cores. Retrieved May, 2007, from ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/law/law_co2.txt
Fenhann J (2000) Industrial non-energy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 63(2–3):313–334
Fluckiger J, Monnin E, Stauffer B, Schwander J, Stocker TF, Chappellaz J, Raynaud D, Barnola JM (2002) High-resolution Holocene N2O ice core record and its relationship with CH4 and CO2. Global Biogeochem Cy 16(1)
Forster P, Ramaswamy V, Artaxo P, Berntsen T, Betts R, Fahey DW, Haywood J, Lean J, Lowe DC, Myhre G, Nganga J, Prinn R, Raga G, Schulz M, Van Dorland R (2007). Chapter 2: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG 1. IPCC. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press
Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, von Bloh W, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Doney S, Eby M, Fung I, Bala G, John J, Jones C, Joos F, Kato T, Kawamiya M, Knorr W, Lindsay K, Matthews HD, Raddatz T, Rayner P, Reick C, Roeckner E, Schnitzler K-G, Schnur R, Strassmann K, Weaver K, Yoshikawa C, Zeng N (2006) Climate–carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. J Clim 19(14):3337–3353
Fujino J, Nair R, Kainuma M, Masui T, Matsuoka Y (2006) Multi-gas mitigation analysis on stabilization scenarios using aim global model. Energ J 343–353
Geller LS, Elkins JW, Lobert JM, Clarke AD, Hurst DF, Butler JH, Myers RC (1997) Tropospheric SF6: observed latitudinal distribution and trends, derived emissions and interhemispheric exchange time. Geophys Res Lett 24(6):675–678
Granier C, Bessagnet B, Bond T, D’Angiola A, van der Gon HG, Frost G, Heil A, Kainuma M, Kaiser J, Kinne S, Klimont Z, Kloster S, Lamarque JF, Liousse C, Matsui T, Meleux F, Mieville A, Ohara T, Riahi K, Schultz M, Smith S, Thomson AM, van Aardenne J, van der Werf G (2011). Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions at global and regional scales during the 1980–2010 period. Climatic Change (this issue). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0154-1
Hare B, Meinshausen M (2006) How much warming are we committed to and how much can be avoided? Clim Chang 75(1):111–149
Hijioka Y, Matsuoka Y, Nishimoto H, Masui M, Kainuma M (2008) Global GHG emissions scenarios under GHG concentration stabilization targets. J Global Environ Eng 13:97–108
Houghton RA (2008) Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land-use changes: 1850–2005. In TRENDS: A compendium of data on global change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/landuse/houghton/houghton.html
Houghton J, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Xiaosu D (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis; contribution of working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)ge. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Hurtt G, Chini L, Frolking S, Betts R, Edmonds J, Feddema J, Fisher G, Goldewijk K, Hibbard KA, Houghton R, Janetos A, Jones C, Kinderman G, Konoshita T, Riahi K, Shevliakova E, Smith S, Stehfest E, Thomson A, Thornton P, van Vuuren DP, Wang Y (2011). Land use Change and earth system dynamics. Climatic Change (this issue). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2
IPCC (1996) Climate change 1995: The science of climate change. Contribution of WGI to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Joos F, Prentice IC, Sitch S, Meyer R, Hooss G, Plattner G-K, Gerber S, Hasselmann K (2001) Global Warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Global Biogeochem Cycles 15(4):891–907
Keeling CD, Whorf TP (2004) Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. Retrieved May, 2007, from http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-keel.htm
Kheshgi HS, Smith SJ, Edmonds JA (2005) Emissions and atmospheric CO2 stabilization: long-term limits and paths. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 10(2):213
Knutti R, Hegerl GC (2008) The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes. Nat Geosci 1(11):735–743
Lamarque JF, Bond TC, Eyring V, Granier C, Heil A, Klimont Z, Lee D, Liousse C, Mieville A, Owen B, Schultz MG, Shindell D, Smith SJ, Stehfest E, Van Aardenne J, Cooper OR, Kainuma M, Mahowald N, McConnell JR, Naik V, Riahi K, van Vuuren DP (2010) Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmos Chem Phys 10(15):7017
Lamarque JF, Riahi K, Smith S, van Vuuren DP, Vitt F, Meinshausen M (2011) Simulated evolution of the distribution of short-lived greenhouse gases and aerosols using the emissions from the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climatic Change (this issue). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0
Laube JC, Martinerie P, Witrant E, Blunier T, Schwander J, Brenninkmeijer CAM, Schuck TJ, Bolder M, Rockmann T, van der Veen C, Bonisch H, Engel A, Mills GP, Newland MJ, Oram DE, Reeves CE, Sturges WT (2010) Accelerating growth of HFC-227ea (1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane) in the atmosphere. Atmos Chem Phys 10(13):5903–5910
Lean JL, Rind DH (2009) How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades? Geophys Res Lett 36
Lowe JA, Huntingford C, Raper SCB, Jones CD, Liddicoat SK, Gohar LK (2009) How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming? Environ Res Lett 4(1)
Machida T, Nakazawa T, Fujii Y, Aoki S, Watanabe O (1995) Increase in the atmospheric nitrous-oxide concentration during the last 250 years. Geophys Res Lett 22(21):2921–2924
Marland G, Boden TA, Andres RJ (2008) Global, regional, and national fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. O. R. N. L. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U.S. Department of Energy. Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA
Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y, Kinoshita T, Nozawa T, Ishiwatari S, Kato E, Shukla PR, Yamagata Y, Kainuma M (2011). An Emission Pathway for Stabilization at 6 W/m2 Radiative Forcing. Climatic Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5
Matthews HD, Gillett NP, Stott PA, Zickfeld K (2009) The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions. Nature 459(7248):829
Meehl GA, Covey C, McAvaney B, Latif M, Stouffer RJ (2005) Overview of coupled model intercomparison project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc (BAMS) 86(89)
Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins W, Friedlingstein P, Gaye A, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy J, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson I, Weaver A, Zhao Z-C (2007). Chapter 10: Global climate projections. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. IPCC. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press
Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper SCB, Frieler K, Knutti R, Frame DJ, Allen MR (2009) Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature 458(7242):1158
Meinshausen M, Raper SCB, Wigley TML (2011a) Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6: Part I—model description and calibration. Atmos Chem Phys 11:1417–1456
Meinshausen M, Wigley TML, Raper SCB (2011b) Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6: Part 2—Applications. Atmos Chem Phys 11:1457–1471
Metz B, Kuijpers L, Solomon S, Anderson SO, Davidson O, Pons J, de Jager D, Kestin T, Manning M, Meyer L (eds) (2005) IPCC/TEAP special report on safeguarding the ozone layer and the global climate system: Issues related to hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons. Cambridge University Press, New York
Montzka SA, Butler JH, Myers RC, Thompson TM, Swanson TH, Clarke AD, Lock LT, Elkins JW (1996a) Decline in the tropospheric abundance of halogen from halocarbons: implications for stratospheric ozone depletion. Science 272(5266):1318–1322
Montzka SA, Myers RC, Butler JH, Elkins JW, Lock LT, Clarke AD, Goldstein AH (1996b) Observations of HFC-134a in the remote troposphere. Geophys Res Lett 23(2):169–172
Moss R, Babiker M, Brinkman S., Calvo E, Carter TR, Edmonds J, Elgizouli I, Emori S, Erda L, Hibbard K, Jones R, Kainuma M, Kelleher J, Lamarque J-F, Manning MR, Matthews B, Meehl J, Meyer L, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, O’Neill B, Pichs R, Riahi K, Rose SK, Runci P, Stouffer RJ, van Vuuren DP, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ, van Ypersele JP, Zurek M (2008) Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies: IPCC Expert Meeting Report, 19–21 September 2007. Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, pp 155
Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463(7282):747–756
Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Olivier JGJ, Peters JAHW (2010) No growth in total global CO2 emissions in 2009. Bilthoven, Netherlands, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) 16
Oram DE, Sturges WT, Penkett SA, McCulloch A, Fraser PJ (1998) Growth of fluoroform (CHF3, HFC-23) in the background atmosphere. Geophys Res Lett 25(1):35–38
PCMDI (2009) CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Overview. from http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/
Peters W, Krol MC, Dlugokencky EJ, Dentener FJ, Bergamaschi P, Dutton G, von Velthoven P, Miller JB, Bruhwiler L, Tans PP (2004) Toward regional-scale modeling using the two-way nested global model TM5: Characterization of transport using SF6. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 109(D19)
Prather MJ, Hsu J (2010) NF3, the greenhouse gas missing from Kyoto (vol 37, L11807, 2010). Geophys Res Lett 37
Prinn RG, Weiss RF, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, Cunnold DM, Alyea FN, O’Doherty S, Salameh P, Miller BR, Huang J, Wang RHJ, Hartley DE, Harth C, Steele LP, Sturrock G, Midgley PM, McCulloch A (2000) A history of chemically and radiatively important gases in air deduced from ALE/GAGE/AGAGE. J Geophys Res Atmos 105(D14):17751–17792
RCP Database (2009) RCP Database version 1.0 hosted at IIASA. Retrieved 23 Nov, 2009, from http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb
Riahi K, Gruebler A, Nakicenovic N (2007) Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74:887–935, Special Issue: Greenhouse Gases - Integrated Assessment
Riahi K, Krey V, Rao S, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kolp P, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rafai P (2011). RCP-8.5: Exploring the consequence of high emission trajectories. Climatic Change (this issue). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y
Smith SJ, Wigley TML (2006) Multi-gas Forcing stabilisation with the MiniCAM. Energ J (Special Issue 3): 373–391
Smith, SJ, van Aardenne J, Klimont Z, Andres R, Volke AC, Delgado Arias S (2011) Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: 1850–2005 Atmos Chem Phys 11:1101–1116
Taylor K, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2009) A summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design. from http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor_CMIP5_design.pdf
Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ, Kyle GP, Volke A, Patel P, Delgado-Arias S, Bond-Lamberty B, Wise MA, Clarke LE, Edmonds JA (2011) RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change (this issue). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4
Thornton PE, Lamarque JF, Rosenbloom NA, Mahowald NM (2007) Influence of carbon-nitrogen cycle coupling on land model response to CO2 fertilization and climate variability. Global Biogeochem Cycles 21(4)
Thornton PE, Doney SC, Lindsay K, Moore JK, Mahowald N, Randerson JT, Fung I, Lamarque JF, Feddema JJ, Lee YH (2009) Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Biogeosciences 6(10):2099–2120
Tomassini L, Reichert P, Knutti R, Stocker TF, Borsuk ME (2007) Robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis of climate system properties using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. J Clim 20(7):1239–1254
van Vuuren D, den Elzen M, Lucas P, Eickhout B, Strengers B, van Ruijven B, Wonink S, van Houdt R (2007) Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Clim Chang 81(2):119
van Vuuren DP, Meinshausen M, Plattner GK, Joos F, Strassmann KM, Smith SJ, Wigley TML, Raper SCB, Riahi K, de la Chesnaye F, den Elzen MGJ, Fujino J, Jiang K, Nakicenovic N, Paltsev S, Reilly JM (2008) Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(40):15258–15262
van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma MLT, Riahi K, Thomson A, Matsui T, Hurtt G, Lamarque J-F, Meinshausen M, Smith S, Grainer C, Rose S, Hibbard KA, Nakicenovic N, Krey V, Kram T (2011a). Representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change (This Issue). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, Den Elzen MGJ, Deetman S, Hof A, Isaac M, Klein Goldewijk K, Kram T, Mendoza Beltran A, Oostenrijk R, Van Vliet J, Van Ruijven B (2011b) RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature change below 2 degree C. Climatic Change (This Issue). doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3
Velders GJM, Andersen SO, Daniel JS, Fahey DW, McFarland M (2007) The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(12):4814–4819
Velders GJM, Fahey DW, Daniel JS, McFarland M, Andersen SO (2009) The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(27):10949–10954
Vollmer MK, Reimann S, Folini D, Porter LW, Steele LP (2006) First appearance and rapid growth of anthropogenic HFC-245fa (CHF2CH2CF3) in the atmosphere. Geophys Res Lett 33(20)
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (2001) Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science 293(5529):451–454
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (2002) Reasons for larger warming projections in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. J Clim 15(20):2945–2952
Wigley TML, Richels R, Edmonds J (2007) Overshoot pathways to CO2 stabilization in a multi-gas context. In: Schlesinger M, Kheshgi H, Smithet J et al (eds) Human induced climate change: An interdisciplinary assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 84–92
Wigley TML, Clarke LE, Edmonds JA, Jacoby HD, Paltsev S, Pitcher H, Reilly JM, Richels R, Sarofim MC, Smith SJ (2009) Uncertainties in climate stabilization. Clim Chang 97(1–2):85–121
Wise MA, Calvin KV, Thomson AM, Clarke LE, Bond-Lamberty B, Sands RD, Smith SJ, Janetos AC, Edmonds JA (2009) Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science 324:1183–1186
WMO (2006) Scientific assessment of ozone depletion: 2006. Global ozone research and monitoring project—Report No. 50. Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization: 572
WMO (2007) Scientific assessment of ozone depletion: 2006. Global ozone research and monitoring project—Report No. 50. Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization: 572