The Obama administration and civil war in Syria, 2011–2016: US presidential foreign policy making as political risk management

Journal of Transatlantic Studies - Tập 19 Số 4 - Trang 517-547 - 2021
Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl1
1Institute of Political Science, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Abboud, Samer N. 2018. Syria, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Polity.

Anderson, Nicholas D., and Victor D. Cha. 2017. The Case of the Pivot to Asia: System Effects and the Origins of Strategy. Political Science Quarterly 132 (4): 595–617.

Baum, Matthew A. 2004. How Public Opinion Constrains the Use of Force: The Case of Operation Restore Hope. Presidential Studies Quarterly 34 (2): 187–226.

Baum, Matthew A., and Philip B.K. Potter. 2008. The Relationships between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis. Annual Review of Political Science 11: 39–65.

Beauregard, Philippe, Arsène Brice. Bado, and Jonathan Paquin. 2017. The Boundaries of Acceptability: France’s Positioning and Rhetorical Strategies during the Arab Uprisings. Mediterranean Politics 24 (1): 40–61.

Beehner, Lionel, and Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl. 2015. 3 Flaws in Pro-Assad Support. USA Today, 17 February, p.7A.

Bjerre-Poulsen, Niels. 2017. ‘Here, We See the Future’: The Obama Administration’s Pivot to Asia. In The Obama Presidency and the Politics of Change, ed. Edward Ashbee and John Dumbrell, 307–327. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.

Blarel, Nicolas, and Avinash Paliwal. 2019. Opening the Black Box—The Making of India’s Foreign Policy. India Review 18 (5): 457–470.

Blarel, Nicolas, and Niels van Willigen. 2021. How do Regional Parties Influence Foreign Policy? Insights from Multi-Level Coalitional Bargaining in India. European Journal of International Relations 27 (2): 478–500.

Boettcher, William A., III. 2005. Presidential Risk Behavior in Foreign Policy: Prudence or Peril? New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Brands, Hal. 2016. Barack Obama and the Dilemmas of American Grand Strategy. Washington Quarterly 39 (4): 101–125.

Calculli, Marina. 2018. Mirage of Retrenchment: Obama and the Syrian Conflict. In US Foreign Policy in a Challenging World: Building Order on Shifting Foundations, ed. Marco Clementi, Matteo Dian, and Barbara Pisciotta, 279–296. Cham: Springer.

Canes-Wrone, Brandice, William G. Howell, and David E. Lewis. 2008. Toward a Broader Understanding of Presidential Power: A Reevaluation of the Two Presidencies Thesis. Journal of Politics 70 (1): 1–16.

Caverley, Jonathan D. 2010. Explaining U.S. Military Strategy in Vietnam: Thinking Clearly About Causation. International Security 35 (3): 124–143.

Chait, Jonathan. 2017. Audacity: How Barack Obama Defied His Critics and Created a Legacy That Will Prevail. New York: Custom House.

Charap, Samuel. 2013. Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention. Survival 55 (1): 35–41.

Clinton, Hillary Rodham. 2014. Hard Choices: A Memoir. New York: Simon and Schuster.

Dafoe, Allan, and Devin Caughey. 2016. Honor and War: Southern US Presidents and the Effects of Concern for Reputation. World Politics 68 (2): 341–381.

DeRouen, Karl. 2000. Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note. International Studies Quarterly 44 (2): 317–328.

Dueck, Colin. 2015. The Obama Doctrine: American Grand Strategy Today. New York: Oxford University Press.

Edwards, George C. 2016. Predicting the Presidency: The Potential of Persuasive Leadership. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Freedman, Lawrence. 2019. Ukraine and the Art of Strategy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Gallagher, Maryann E., and Susan H. Allen. 2014. Presidential Personality: Not Just a Nuisance. Foreign Policy Analysis 10 (1): 1–21.

George, Alexander L. 1980. Presidential Decision Making in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice. Boulder: Westview.

Goldberg, Jeffrey. 2014. Hillary Clinton: ‘Failure’ to Help Syrian Rebels Led to the Rise of ISIS. Atlantic, 10 August. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/hillary-clinton-failure-to-help-syrian-rebels-led-to-the-rise-of-isis/375832/. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Goldberg, Jeffrey. 2016. The Obama Doctrine. Atlantic, April. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Hanhimäki, Jussi M. 2003. Global Visions and Parochial Politics: The Persistent Dilemma of the ‘American Century.’ Diplomatic History 27 (4): 423–447.

Heydemann, Steven. 2014. America’s Response to the Arab Uprisings: US Foreign Assistance in an Era of Ambivalence. Mediterranean Politics 19 (3): 299–317.

Hinnebusch, Raymond, and Adham Saouli, eds. 2019. The War for Syria: Regional and International Dimensions of the Syrian Uprising. London: Routledge.

Hof, Frederic. 2014. Saving Syria is No ‘Fantasy’. Politico, 11 August. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/08/mr-president-saving-syria-is-no-fantasy-109923/. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Hokayem, Emile. 2013. Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant. London: IISS.

Howell, William G., and Jon C. Rogowski. 2013. War, the Presidency, and Legislative Voting Behavior. American Journal of Political Science 57 (1): 150–166.

Howell, William G., and Jon C. Pevehouse. 2005. Presidents, Congress, and the Use of Force. International Organization 59 (1): 209–232.

Ignatieff, Michael. 2014. Are the Authoritarians Winning? New York Review of Books, 10 July. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2014/07/10/are-authoritarians-winning/. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Janis, Irving L. 1982. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, 2nd ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

Janis, Irving L., and Leon Mann. 1977. Decision-Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment. New York: The Free Press.

Kaarbo, Juliet, and Daniel Kenealy. 2016. No, Prime Minister: Explaining the House of Commons’ Vote on Intervention in Syria. European Security 25 (1): 28–48.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. 1979. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica 47 (2): 263–292.

Kainikara, Sanu. 2018. In the Bear’s Shadow: Russian Intervention in Syria. Canberra: Air Power Development Centre, Royal Australian Air Force.

Kanat, Kilic, and Kadir Ustun. 2015. U.S.-Turkey Realignment on Syria. Middle East Policy 22 (4): 88–97.

Karakoç, Jülide. 2013. US Policy Towards Syria Since the Early 2000s. Critique 41 (2): 223–243.

Kassop, Nancy. 2013. Rivals for Influence on Counterterrorism Policy: White House Political Staff Versus Executive Branch Legal Advisors. Presidential Studies Quarterly 43 (2): 252–273.

Krieg, Andreas. 2016. Externalizing the Burden of War: The Obama Doctrine and US Foreign Policy in the Middle East. International Affairs 92 (1): 97–113.

Kriner, Douglas L. 2010. After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Kumar, Martha Joynt. 2000. The White House World: Start Up, Organization, and the Pressures of Work Life. Report No. 6, The White House 2001 Project. https://whitehousetransitionproject.org/.

Lantis, Jeffrey S. 2021. Advocacy Coalitions and Foreign Policy Change: Understanding US Responses to the Syrian Civil War. Journal of Global Security Studies 6 (1): ogaa016.

Leenders, Reinoud, and Antonio Giustozzi. 2019. Outsourcing State Violence: The National Defence Force, ‘Stateness’ and Regime Resilience in the Syrian War. Mediterranean Politics 24 (2): 157–180.

Leenders, Reinoud, and Antonio Giustozzi. Forthcoming. Foreign Sponsorship of Pro-Government Militias Fighting Syria’s Insurgency: Whither Proxy Wars? Mediterranean Politics. https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2020.1839235

Levy, Jack S. 1992. An Introduction to Prospect Theory. Political Psychology 13 (2): 171–186.

Lizza, Ryan. 2011. The Consequentialist: How the Arab Spring Remade Obama’s Foreign Policy. New Yorker, 2 May. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/05/02/the-consequentialist. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Local Coordination Committees (LCC). 2013. Syria Today 21-8-2013, 21 August. http://www.lccsyria.org/11670. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Logevall, Fredrik. 2009. Politics and Foreign Relations. Journal of American History 95 (4): 1074–1078.

Lynch, Marc. 2015. Obama and the Middle East. Foreign Affairs 94 (5): 18–27.

Lynch, Marc. 2016. The New Arab Wars: Uprisings and Anarchy in the Middle East. New York: PublicAffairs.

Mann, James. 2012. The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Redefine American Power. New York: Penguin.

McDermott, Rose. 1998. Risk-Taking in International Politics: Prospect Theory in American Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

McDermott, Rose. 2007. Presidential Leadership, Illness, and Decision Making. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). 2013. Syria: Thousands Suffering Neurotoxic Symptoms Treated in Hospitals Supported by MSF, 24 August. http://www.msf.org/article/syria-thousands-suffering-neurotoxic-symptoms-treated-hospitals-supported-msf. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Mintz, Alex. 2004. How Do Leaders Make Decisions? A Poliheuristic Perspective. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (1): 3–13.

Mintz, Alex, and Carly Wayne. 2016. The Polythink Syndrome: U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions on 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and ISIS. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Mohns, Erik, and Francesco Cavatorta. 2010. ‘Yes, He Can’: A Reappraisal of Syrian Foreign Policy under Bashar al-Asad. Mediterranean Politics 15 (2): 289–298.

Nuechterlein, Donald E. 1973. United States National Interests in a Changing World. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.

Obama, Barack. 2009. Organization of the National Security Council. Presidential Policy Directive 1, 13 February. http://fas.org/irp/offdocs/ppd/ppd-1.pdf. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Packer, George. 2014. A Friend Flees the Horror of ISIS. New Yorker, 6 August. http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/friend-flees-horror-isis/. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Panetta, Leon. 2014. Worthy Fights: A Memoir of Leadership in War and Peace. New York: Penguin.

Parsi, Trita. 2017. Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Pfiffner, James P. 2011. Decision Making in the Obama White House. Presidential Studies Quarterly 41 (2): 244–262.

Phillips, Christopher. 2016. The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Quero, Jordi and Andrea Dessì. 2021. Unpredictability in US Foreign Policy and the Regional Order in the Middle East Reacting vis-à-vis a Volatile External Security-Provider. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies. 48 (2): 311–330.

Remnick, David. 2014. Going the Distance: On and Off the Road with Barack Obama. New Yorker, 27 January. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/01/27/going-the-distance-david-remnick/. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

Rittel, Horst W. J., and Melvin M. Webber. 1973. Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning. Policy Sciences 4 (2): 155–169.

Rose, Gideon. 2015. What Obama Gets Right. Foreign Affairs 94 (5): 2–12.

Saunders, Elizabeth N. 2011. Leaders at War: How Presidents Shape Military Interventions. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

Schlesinger, Arthur M., Jr. 1973. The Imperial Presidency. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

Schulhofer-Wohl, Jonah. 2020. On-Side Fighting in Civil War: The Logic of Mortal Alignment in Syria. Rationality and Society 32 (4): 402–460.

Sorenson, David S. 2016. Syria in Ruins: The Dynamics of the Syrian Civil War. Santa Barbara: Praeger.

Stein, Janice Gross. 2017. The Micro-Foundations of International Relations Theory: Psychology and Behavior Economics. International Organization 71 (S1): S249–S263.

Stevenson, Jonathan. 2014. The Syrian Tragedy and Precedent. Survival 56 (3): 121–140.

Strong, James. 2015. Interpreting the Syria Vote: Parliament and British Foreign Policy. International Affairs 91 (5): 1123–1139.

Todd, Chuck. 2014. The Stranger: Barack Obama in the White House. New York: Little, Brown and Company.

Trenin, Dimitri. 2017. What is Russia Up To in the Middle East? London: Polity.

Trubowitz, Peter. 2011. Politics and Strategy: Partisan Ambition and American Statecraft. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

United States Department of State. 2011. Remarks After the International Conference on the Libyan Crisis. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 29 March. http://www.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/03/159327.htm/. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

United States Department of State. 2013. Remarks with United Kingdom Foreign Secretary Hague. Secretary of State John Kerry, 9 September. http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/09/213956.htm. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.

United States Government. 2020. Operation Inherent Resolve: Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress, April 1, 2020–June 30, 2020, 31 July.

Vis, Barbara, and Dieuwertje Kuijpers. 2018. Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Underexposed Issues, Advancements, and Ways Forward. Contemporary Security Policy 39 (4): 575–589.

Wang, Chi. 2015. The Case of the Pivot to Asia: System Effects and the Origins of Strategy. Farnham: Ashgate.

Wildavsky, Aaron. 1966. The Two Presidencies. Trans-Action 4 (2): 7–14.

Zegart, Amy B. 1999. Flawed by Design: The Evolution of the CIA, JCS, and NSC. Stanford: Stanford University Press.