Mô phỏng sự thay đổi trong sử dụng đất/đến che phủ đất và sự mở rộng đô thị ở Estonia bằng mô hình lai ANN-CA-MCA và sử dụng các chỉ số quang phổ-kết cấu

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 194 - Trang 1-26 - 2022
Najmeh Mozaffaree Pour1, Oleksandr Karasov1,2, Iuliia Burdun1,3, Tõnu Oja1
1Department of Geography, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
2Digital Geography Lab, Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
3Department of Built Environment, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland

Tóm tắt

Trong hai thập kỷ vừa qua, việc sử dụng đất/đến che phủ đất (LULC) đã thay đổi đáng kể ở Estonia. Mặc dù dân số giảm 11%, nhưng diện tích đất nông nghiệp và rừng đáng kể đã bị chuyển đổi thành đất đô thị. Trong nghiên cứu này, chúng tôi đã phân tích những thay đổi LULC bằng cách lập bản đồ các đặc điểm không gian của LULC và sự mở rộng đô thị trong giai đoạn 2000–2019 ở Estonia. Hơn nữa, sử dụng các chuyển tiếp không gian-thời gian LULC đã được công bố, chúng tôi đã mô phỏng LULC và sự mở rộng đô thị cho năm 2030. Dữ liệu Landsat 5 và 8 đã được sử dụng để ước lượng 147 chỉ số quang phổ-kết cấu trên nền tảng điện toán đám mây Google Earth Engine. Sau đó, 19 chỉ số được chọn đã được sử dụng để mô hình hóa những thay đổi LULC bằng cách áp dụng mạng nơ-ron nhân tạo lai, tự động hóa ô, và phân tích chuỗi Markov (ANN-CA-MCA). Trong khi việc xác định các chỉ số quang phổ-kết cấu là khá phổ biến cho các phân loại LULC, việc sử dụng những chỉ số này trong phát hiện thay đổi LULC và kiểm tra những chỉ số này ở quy mô cảnh quan vẫn còn đang trong giai đoạn sơ khai. Cách tiếp cận mô hình quốc gia này đã cung cấp dự đoán toàn diện đầu tiên về LULC trong tương lai bằng cách sử dụng các chỉ số quang phổ-kết cấu. Trong nghiên cứu này, chúng tôi đã sử dụng mô hình ANN-CA-MCA lai để dự đoán LULC ở Estonia cho năm 2030; chúng tôi đã phát hiện ra rằng sự thay đổi được dự đoán trong LULC từ 2019 đến 2030 tương tự như những thay đổi quan sát được từ 2011 đến 2019. Sự thay đổi được dự đoán trong diện tích bề mặt nhân tạo có tỷ lệ tăng 1,33% lên tới 787,04 km2 vào năm 2030. Giữa 2019 và 2030, những thay đổi đáng kể khác là sự giảm 34,57 km2 của đất rừng và tăng 14,90 km2 của đất nông nghiệp và 9,31 km2 của đất ngập nước. Những phát hiện này có thể phát triển một con đường hành động thích hợp cho kế hoạch không gian lâu dài ở Estonia. Do vậy, một ưu tiên chính sách hàng đầu nên là lập kế hoạch cho việc bảo tồn bền vững các khu rừng nhằm duy trì sự đa dạng sinh học.

Từ khóa

#sử dụng đất #che phủ đất #mô phỏng #mở rộng đô thị #chỉ số quang phổ-kết cấu #Estonia

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