Real-Time Crash Prediction Model for Application to Crash Prevention in Freeway Traffic

Transportation Research Record - Tập 1840 Số 1 - Trang 67-77 - 2003
Chris Lee1, Bruce Hellinga1, Frank Saccomanno1
1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada

Tóm tắt

The likelihood of a crash or crash potential is significantly affected by the short-term turbulence of traffic flow. For this reason, crash potential must be estimated on a real-time basis by monitoring the current traffic condition. In this regard, a probabilistic real-time crash prediction model relating crash potential to various traffic flow characteristics that lead to crash occurrence, or “crash precursors,” was developed. In the development of the previous model, however, several assumptions were made that had not been clearly verified from either theoretical or empirical perspectives. Therefore, the objectives of the present study were to ( a) suggest the rational methods by which the crash precursors included in the model can be determined on the basis of experimental results and ( b) test the performance of the modified crash prediction model. The study found that crash precursors can be determined in an objective manner, eliminating a characteristic of the previous model, in which the model results were dependent on analysts’ subjective categorization of crash precursors.

Từ khóa


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Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Transportation Research Record

Tập 1840 Số 1

67-77

Thông tin tác giả