Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments

Child Abuse & Neglect - Tập 73 - Trang 71-88 - 2017
Claudia E. van der Put1, Mark Assink1, Noëlle F. Boekhout van Solinge1
1Research Institute of Child Development and Education, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Tài liệu tham khảo

Aegisdóttir, 2006, The meta-analysis of clinical judgment project: Fifty-six years of accumulated research on clinical versus statistical prediction, The Counseling Psychologist, 34, 341, 10.1177/0011000005285875

*Altemeier, 1984, Prediction of child abuse: a prospective study of feasibility, Child Abuse & Neglect, 8, 393, 10.1016/0145-2134(84)90020-6

Altman, 1994, Diagnostic tests 3: Receiver operating characteristic plots, British Medical Journal, 309, 188, 10.1136/bmj.309.6948.188

Andrews, 2010

Assink, 2016, Fitting three-level meta-analytic models in R: A step-by-step tutorial, The Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 12, 154, 10.20982/tqmp.12.3.p154

*Ayoub, 1985, Failure to thrive: Parental indicators, types, and outcomes, Child Abuse & Neglect, 9, 491, 10.1016/0145-2134(85)90058-4

*Barber, 2008, Reliability and predictive validity of a consensus-based risk assessment tool, Journal of Public Child Welfare, 2, 173, 10.1080/15548730802312701

Barlow, 2012

*Bartelink, 2015

Belsky, 1993, Etiology of child maltreatment: A developmental ecological analysis, Psychological Bulletin, 114, 413, 10.1037/0033-2909.114.3.413

*Brayden, 1993, A prospective study of secondary prevention of child maltreatment, The Journal of Pediatrics, 122, 511, 10.1016/S0022-3476(05)83528-0

Cash, 2001, Risk assessment in child welfare: The art and science, Children and Youth Services Review, 23, 811, 10.1016/S0190-7409(01)00162-1

*Chaffin, 2003, Dynamic prediction characteristics of the child abuse potential inventory, Child Abuse & Neglect, 27, 463, 10.1016/S0145-2134(03)00036-X

Cheung, 2014, Modeling dependent effect sizes with three-level meta-analyses: A structural equation modeling approach, Psychological Methods, 19, 211, 10.1037/a0032968

*Coohey, 2013, Actuarial risk assessment in child protective services: Construction methodology and performance criteria, Children and Youth Services Review, 35, 151, 10.1016/j.childyouth.2012.09.020

Cyr, 2013, Polyvictimization and victimization of children and youth: Results from a populational survey, Child Abuse & Neglect, 37, 814, 10.1016/j.chiabu.2013.03.009

D'andrade, 2008, Risk and safety assessment in child welfare: Instrument comparisons, Journal of Evidence-Based Social Work, 5, 31, 10.1300/J394v05n01_03

*Dankert, 2014

Dawes, 1989, Clinical versus actuarial judgment, Science, 243, 1668, 10.1126/science.2648573

Dawes, 1994

*De Ruiter, 2012, Gestructureerde risicotaxatie bij kindermishandeling: De Child Abuse Risk Evaluation-Nederlandse versie [Structured risk assessment for child maltreatment: The Dutch version of the Child Abuse Risk Evaluation (CARE-NL)], Psychologie, 3, 10

De Vogel, 2004, Type of discharge and risk of recidivism measured by the HCR-20: A retrospective study in a Dutch sample of treated forensic psychiatric patients, International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 3, 149, 10.1080/14999013.2004.10471204

Dorsey, 2008, Caseworker assessments of risk for recurrent maltreatment: Association with case-specific risk factors and re-reports, Child Abuse & Neglect, 32, 377, 10.1016/j.chiabu.2007.06.006

Duval, 2000, Trim and fill: A simple funnel-plot-based method of testing and adjusting for publication bias in meta-analysis, Biometrics, 56, 455, 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2000.00455.x

Fergusson, 2000, The stability of child abuse reports: a longitudinal study of the reporting behaviour of young adults, Psychological Medicine, 30, 529, 10.1017/S0033291799002111

Finkelhor, 2005, The victimization of children and youth: A comprehensive national survey, Child Maltreatment, 10, 5, 10.1177/1077559504271287

Finkelhor, 2008

Finkelhor, 2009, Lifetime assessment of poly-victimization in a national sample of children and youth, Child Abuse & Neglect, 33, 403, 10.1016/j.chiabu.2008.09.012

*Flaherty, 2001

Gambrill, 2000, Risk assessment in context, Children and Youth Services Review, 22, 813, 10.1016/S0190-7409(00)00123-7

Grove, 1996, Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy, Psychology, Public Policy and Law, 2, 293, 10.1037/1076-8971.2.2.293

*Hamilton, 1999, Recurrent maltreatment during childhood: A survey of referrals to police child protection units in England, Child Maltreatment, 4, 275, 10.1177/1077559599004004001

Hanson, 2009, The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies, Psychological Assessment, 21, 1, 10.1037/a0014421

Hilton, 2006, Sixty-six years of research on the clinical versus actuarial prediction of violence, The Counseling Psychologist, 34, 400, 10.1177/0011000005285877

Houben, 2015, The relation between short-term emotion dynamics and psychological well-being: A meta-analysis, Psychological Bulletin, 141, 901, 10.1037/a0038822

Hox, 2002

*Hunter, 1978, Antecedents of child abuse and neglect in premature infants: A prospective study in a newborn intensive care unit, Pediatrics, 61, 629, 10.1542/peds.61.4.629

Jenkins, 2017, The complexity of child protection recurrence: The case for a systems approach, Child Abuse & Neglect, 63, 162, 10.1016/j.chiabu.2016.11.020

Johnson, 2008, Family assessment in child welfare services: Instrument comparisons, Journal of Evidence-based Social Work, 5, 57, 10.1300/J394v05n01_04

*Johnson, 2015, Child abuse/neglect risk assessment under field practice conditions: Tests of external and temporal validity and comparison with heart disease prediction, Children and Youth Services Review, 56, 76, 10.1016/j.childyouth.2015.06.013

Johnson, 2006, The risk assessment wars: A commentary response to Evaluating the effectiveness of actuarial risk assessment models by Donald Baumann J. Randolph Law, Janess Sheets, Grant Reid, and J. Christopher Graham, Children and Youth Services Review, 27, 465

Johnson, 2006, Post-battle skirmish in the risk assessment wars: Rebuttal to the response of Baumann and colleagues to criticism of their paper: Evaluating the effectiveness of actuarial risk assessment models, Children and Youth Services Review, 28, 1124, 10.1016/j.childyouth.2006.04.002

Knapp, 2003, Improved tests for a random effects meta-regression with a single covariate, Statistics in Medicine, 22, 2693, 10.1002/sim.1482

Knoke, 2005, Reviewing the evidence on assessing risk for child abuse and neglect, Brief Treatment and Crisis Intervention, 5, 310, 10.1093/brief-treatment/mhi024

Kuppens, 2013, Associations between parental psychological control and relational aggression in children and adolescents: A multilevel and sequential meta-analysis, Developmental Psychology, 49, 1697, 10.1037/a0030740

*Lealman, 1983, Prediction and prevention of child abuse—an empty hope?, The Lancet, 321, 1423, 10.1016/S0140-6736(83)92367-X

Lipsey, 2001

Loeber, 2008, A cumulative developmental model of risk and promotive factors, 133

*Loman, 2004

Lyons, 1996, Risk assessment for child protective services: A review of the empirical literature on instrument performance, Social Work Research, 20, 143

MacMillan, 2003, Reported contact with child protection services among those reporting child physical and sexual abuse: results from a community survey, Child Abuse & Neglect, 27, 1397, 10.1016/j.chiabu.2003.06.003

*Milner, 1984, Predictive validity of the child abuse potential inventory, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 52, 879, 10.1037/0022-006X.52.5.879

Moher, 2009, Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: The PRISMA statement, Annals of Internal Medicine, 151, 264, 10.7326/0003-4819-151-4-200908180-00135

Morton, 2003

Mullen, 1989

Munro, 1999, Common errors of reasoning in child protection work, Child Abuse & Neglect, 23, 745, 10.1016/S0145-2134(99)00053-8

*Murphy, 1985, Prenatal prediction of child abuse and neglect: A prospective study, Child Abuse & Neglect, 9, 225, 10.1016/0145-2134(85)90015-8

Nakagawa, 2012, Methodological issues and advances in biological meta-analysis, Evolutionary Ecology, 26, 1253, 10.1007/s10682-012-9555-5

*Ondersma, 2005, A brief form of the child abuse potential inventory: Development and validation, Journal of Clinical Child and Adolescent Psychology, 34, 301, 10.1207/s15374424jccp3402_9

Pecora, 1991, Investigating allegations of child maltreatment: The strengths and limitations of current risk assessment systems, Child & Youth Services, 15, 73, 10.1300/J024v15n02_05

Peters, 2003, Systematic review of instruments designed to predict child maltreatment during the antenatal and postnatal periods, Child Abuse Review, 12, 416, 10.1002/car.821

Peters, 2007, Performance of the trim and fill method in the presence of publication bias and between-study heterogeneity, Statistics in Medicine, 26, 4544, 10.1002/sim.2889

Pfister, 2008, The multiplicity of emotions: A framework of emotional functions in decision making, Judgment and Decision Making, 3, 5, 10.1017/S1930297500000127

R Core Team, 2015

Rapp, 2014, The efficacy of case management with persons who have substance abuse problems: A three-level meta-analysis of outcomes, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 82, 605, 10.1037/a0036750

Rice, 2005, Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC Area, Cohen's d, and r, Law and Human Behavior, 29, 615, 10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7

Rosenthal, 1979, The file drawer problem and tolerance for null results, Psychological Bulletin, 86, 638, 10.1037/0033-2909.86.3.638

Ruscio, 2008, A probability-based measure of effect size: Robustness to base rates and other factors, Psychological Methods, 13, 19, 10.1037/1082-989X.13.1.19

Singh, 2013, Predictive validity performance indicators in violence risk assessment: A methodological primer, Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 31, 8, 10.1002/bsl.2052

*Staal, 2013, Risk assessment of parents’ concerns at 18 months in preventive child health care predicted child abuse and neglect, Child Abuse & Neglect, 37, 475, 10.1016/j.chiabu.2012.12.002

Stoltenborgh, 2015, The prevalence of child maltreatment across the globe: Review of a series of meta-analyses, Child Abuse Review, 24, 37, 10.1002/car.2353

Swets, 2000, Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions, Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 1, 1, 10.1111/1529-1006.001

Tabachnik, 2013

Tatara, 1996, A survey of states on CPS risk assessment practice: preliminary findings

Terrin, 2003, Adjusting for publication bias in the presence of heterogeneity, Statistics in Medicine, 22, 2113, 10.1002/sim.1461

Van den Noortgate, 2003, Multilevel meta-analysis: A comparison with traditional meta-analytical procedures, Educational and Psychological Measurement, 63, 765, 10.1177/0013164403251027

Van den Noortgate, 2015, Meta-analysis of multiple outcomes: A multilevel approach, Behavior Research Methods, 47, 1274, 10.3758/s13428-014-0527-2

Van der Put, 2016, Detection of unsafety in families with parental and/or child developmental problems at the start of family support, BMC Psychiatry, 16, 10.1186/s12888-016-0715-y

Van der Put, 2016, The effectiveness of risk assessment methods: commentary on Deciding on child maltreatment: A literature review on methods that improve decision-making, Child Abuse and Neglect, 59, 128, 10.1016/j.chiabu.2016.06.009

*van der Put, 2017, Screening for potential child maltreatment in parents of a newborn baby: The predictive validity of an Instrument for early identification of Parents At Risk for child Abuse and Neglect (IPARAN), Child Abuse & Neglect, 70, 160, 10.1016/j.chiabu.2017.05.016

Viechtbauer, 2010, Conducting meta-analyses in R with the metafor package, Journal of Statistical Software, 36, 1, 10.18637/jss.v036.i03

Weisz, 2013, Performance of evidence-based youth psychotherapies compared with usual clinical care, JAMA Psychiatry, 70, 750, 10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2013.1176

White, 2006