Những tác động tiềm tàng của biến đổi khí hậu đối với an ninh toàn cầu

Environment Systems and Decisions - Tập 34 - Trang 564-577 - 2014
Donald J. Wuebbles1, Aman Chitkara2, Clay Matheny1
1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, USA
2University of Chicago, Chicago, USA

Tóm tắt

Khoa học đã chỉ ra rằng biến đổi khí hậu là một trong những vấn đề quan trọng nhất mà nhân loại đang phải đối mặt. Biến đổi khí hậu đã và đang ảnh hưởng đến nhân loại và nền kinh tế của chúng ta theo nhiều cách. Những tác động này sẽ gia tăng khi khí hậu tiếp tục thay đổi, và các tác động được dự đoán sẽ tăng mạnh trong những thập kỷ tới. Các mối nguy hiểm liên quan đến khí hậu làm trầm trọng thêm các yếu tố căng thẳng khác, thường dẫn đến những kết quả tiêu cực cho sinh kế, đặc biệt đối với những người sống trong cảnh nghèo đói. Biến đổi khí hậu có thể khuếch đại những căng thẳng và điểm dễ bị tổn thương hiện tại trong các quần thể cũng như những mối đe dọa hiện có đối với an ninh, và có thể khiến nguy cơ bạo lực và xung đột bạo lực gia tăng một cách gián tiếp. Bài báo này nhằm mục đích xem xét những thay đổi đã và đang diễn ra đối với khí hậu của Trái đất, những thay đổi bổ sung nào về khí hậu có thể xảy ra trong những thập kỷ tới, và cách mà biến đổi khí hậu có thể ảnh hưởng đến an ninh toàn cầu.

Từ khóa

#biến đổi khí hậu #an ninh quốc tế #hiện tượng khí hậu #tác động xã hội #xung đột bạo lực

Tài liệu tham khảo

Ackerman F, Stanton EA (2008) Climate change and the US economy: the costs of inaction. Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University; and Stockholm Environment Institute, Medford, MA. http://www.sei-us.org/climate-and-energy/US_Costs_of_Inaction.doc Black R, Bennett SRG, Thomas SM, Beddington JR (2011) Climate change: migration as adaptation. Nature 478, 447–449. doi:10.1038/478477a. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22012304 Boberg F, Berg P, Thejll P, Gutowski W, Christensen J (2009) Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation evaluated using daily statistics from the PRUDENCE ensemble. Clim Dyn 32:1097–1106. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0446-y Chicago Council on Global Affairs (2014) Advancing global security in the face of a changing climate. Chicago, IL Christidis N, Stott PA, Brown SJ (2011) The role of human activity in the recent warming of extremely warm daytime temperatures. J Clim 24:1922–1930. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1 CNA Military Advisory Board (2007) National security and the threat of climate change. Alexandria, Virginia CNA Military Advisory Board (2014) National security and the accelerating risks of climate change. Alexandria, Virginia Department of Defense (DOD) (2011) Trends and implications of climate change for national and international security. Washington, DC Department of Defense (DOD) (2014a) Quadrennial defense review 2014. Washington, DC Department of Defense (DOD) (2014b) 2014 Climate change adaptation roadmap. Washington, DC Deser C, Knutti R, Solomon S, Phillips AS (2012) Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat Clim Change 2:775–779. doi:10.1038/nclimate1562 Dietz S, Hope C, Stern N, Zenghelis D (2007) Reflections on the stern review: a robust case for strong action to reduce the risks of climate change. World Econ 8:121–168 Doney SC, Fabry VJ, Feely RA, Kleypas JA (2009) Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem. Ann Rev Mar Sci 1:169–192. doi:10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834 Duffy PB, Tebaldi C (2012) Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the US. Clim Change 111:487–495. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0396-6 Feely RA, Sabine CL, Hernandez-Ayon JM, Ianson D, Hales B (2008) Evidence for upwelling of corrosive “acidified” water onto the continental shelf. Science 320:1490–1492. doi:10.1126/science.1155676 Feely RA, Alin SR, Newton J, Sabine CL, Warner M, Devol A, Krembs C, Maloy C (2010) The combined effects of ocean acidification, mixing, and respiration on pH and carbonate saturation in an urbanized estuary. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 88:442–449. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2010.05.004 Future Directions International (FDI) (2011) Water: our future. West Perth, Australia. ISBN:978-0-9757634-4-5 Gillett NP, Arora VK, Flato GM, Scinocca JF, Salzen KV (2012) Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations. Geophys Res Lett 39:5. doi:10.1029/2011GL050226 Gutowski WJ, Takle ES, Kozak KA, Patton JC, Arritt RW, Christensen JH (2007) A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming. J Hydrometeorol 8:1382–1396. doi:10.1175/2007jhm817.1 Hagan J, Kaiser J (2011) The displaced and dispossessed of Darfur: explaining the sources of a continuing state-led genocide. Br J Soc 62(1). doi:10.1111/j.1468-4446.2011.01357.x Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:1095–1107. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 Hawkins E, Sutton R (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim Dyn 37:407–418 Hendrix CS, Glaser SM (2007) Trends and triggers: climate, climate change and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geogr 26(6):695–715. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.006 Hoerling M, Chen M, Dole R, Eischeid J, Kumar A, Nielsen-Gammon JW, Pegion P, Perlwitz J, Quan X-W, Zhang T (2013) Anatomy of an extreme event. J Clim 26:2811–2832. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00270.1 Hönisch B, Ridgwell A, Schmidt DN, Thomas E, Gibbs SJ, Sluijs A, Zeebe R, Kump L, Martindale RC, Greene SE, Kiessling W, Ries J, Zachos JC, Royer DL, Barker S, Marchitto TM Jr, Moyer R, Pelejero C, Ziveri P, Foster GL, Williams B (2012) The geological record of ocean acidification. Science 335:1058–1063. doi:10.1126/science.1208277 Hsiang S, Jina A (2014) The causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long-run economic growth: evidence from 6,700 cyclones. http://www.nber.org/papers/w20352. Accessed 8 Nov 2014 Hsiang SM, Meng KC, Cane MA (2011) Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature 476:438–441. doi:10.1038/nature10311. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v476/n7361/pdf/nature10311.pdf. Accessed 16 July 2014 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007a) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007b) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattenr G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) A special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Janssen E, Wuebbles DJ, Kunkel KE, Olsen SC, Goodman A (2014) Trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States. Earth’s Futur 2:99–113. doi:10.1002/2013EF000185 Keefer P (2009) Disastrous consequences: the political economy of disaster risk reduction. https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/NewFolder/Keefer_Disastrous_Consequences.pdf Kunkel KE, Karl TR, Brooks H, Kossin J, Lawrimore J, Arndt D, Bosart L, Changnon D, Cutter S, Doesken N, Emanue K, Groisman PY, Katz RW, Knutson T, O’Brien J, Paciorek CJ, Peterson T, Redmond K, Robinson D, Trapp J, Vose R, Weaver S, Wehner M, Wolter K, Wuebbles D (2013) Monitoring and understanding changes in extreme storm statistics: state of knowledge. Bullet Am Meteorol Soc 94:499–514. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1 Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G, Bopp L, Ciais P, Conway TJ, Doney SC, Feely RA, Foster P, Friedlingstein P, Gurney K, Houghton RA, House JI, Huntingford C, Levy PE, Lomas MR, Majkut J, Metzl N, Ometto JP, Peters GP, Prentice IC, Randerson JT, Running SW, Sarmiento JL, Schuster U, Sitch S, Takahashi T, Viovy N, van der Werf GR, Woodward FI (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nat Geosci 2:831–836. doi:10.1038/ngeo689 Marcott SA, Shakun JD, Clark PU, Mix AC (2013) A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years. Science 339:1198–1201. doi:10.1126/science.1228026. Marzeion B, Jarosch AH, Hofer M (2012) Past and future sea level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. Cryosphere Discuss 6:3177–3241. doi:10.5194/tcd-6-3177-2012 Mathis JT, Cross JN, Bates NR (2011) Coupling primary production and terrestrial runoff to ocean acidification and carbonate mineral suppression in the eastern Bering Sea. J Geophys Res 116:C02030. doi:10.1029/2010JC006453 Matthews HD, Zickfeld K (2012) Climate response to zeroed emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Nat Clim Change 2:338–341. doi:10.1038/nclimate1424 McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urban 19:17–37 Meehl GA, Tebaldi C, Walton G, Easterling D, McDaniel L (2009) Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the US. Geophys Res Lett 36:L23701. doi:10.1029/2009GL040736 Melillo JM, Richmond TC, Yohe GW (eds) (2014) Climate change impacts in the United States: the third national climate assessment. US Global Change Research Program. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov Meyer V, Becker N, Markantonis V, Schwarze R, van den Bergh JCJM, Bouwer LM, Bubeck P, Ciavola P, Genovese E, Green C, Hallegatte S, Kreibich H, Lequeux Q, Logar I, Papyrakis E, Pfurtscheller C, Poussin J, Przyluski V, Thieken AH, Viavattene C (2013) Review article: assessing the costs of natural hazards—state of the art and knowledge gaps. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1351–1373. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013 Miguel E, Satyanath S, Sergenti E (2004) Economic shocks and civil conflict: an instrumental variables approach. J Polit Econ 112(4):725–753. doi:10.1086/421174 Min S, Zhang X, Zwiers F, Hegerl G (2011) Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470:378–381 Mueller V, Gray C, Kosec K (2014) Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4:182–185. doi:10.1038/nclimate2103 National Research Council (NRC) (2013) Climate and social stress: implications for security analysis. In: Steinbruner JD, Stern PC, Husbands JL (eds) Committee on assessing the impacts of climate change on social and political stresses. Board on Environmental Change and Society, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. The National Academic Press, Washington, DC Orr JC (2011) Recent and future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry. In: G. J.-P. H. L (ed) Ocean Acidification. Oxford University Press, pp 41–66 Orr JC, Fabry VJ, Aumont O, Bopp L, Doney SC, Feely RA, Gnanadesikan A, Gruber N, Ishida A, Joos F, Key RM, Lindsay K, Maier-Reimer E, Matear R, Monfray P, Mouchet A, Najjar RG, Plattner G-K, Rodgers KB, Sabine CL, Sarmiento JL, Schlitzer R, Slater RD, Totterdell IJ, Weirig M-F, Yamanaka Y, Yool A (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437:681–686. doi:10.1038/nature04095 Penning-Rowsell EC, Sultana P, Thompson PM (2012) The “last resort”? Population movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh. Environ Sci Policy 27:S44–S59. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.03.009. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901112000470. Accessed 26 July 2014 Rahmstorf S, Perrette M, Vermeer M (2012) Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections. Clim Dyn 39:861–875. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7 Raleigh C, Jordan L, Salehyan I (2008) Assessing the impact of climate change on migration and conflict. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/Resources/SDCCWorkingPaper_MigrationandConflict.pdf. Accessed 26 July 2014 Rauch E (2011) Global natural catastrophe update. Munich Re, Munich, Germany Reuveny R (2007) Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Polit Geogr 26:656–673. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.05.001. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629807000601 Rupp DE, Mote PW, Massey N, Rye CJ, Jones R, Allen MR (2012) Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable? Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective. In: Peterson TC, Stott PA, Herring S (eds) Special Supplement to the Bulletin American Meteorological Society, vol 94. pp 1052–1054 Sanghi A, Ramachandran S, de la Fuente A, Tonizzo M, Sahin S, Adam B, Ramachandran S (2010) Natural hazards, UnNatural Disasters. The World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-8050-5 Santer BD, Painter JF, Mears CA, Doutriaux C, Caldwell P, Arblaster JM, Cameron-Smith PJ, Gillett NP, Gleckler PJ, Lanzante J, Perlwitz J, Solomon S, Stott PA, Taylor KE, Terray L, Thorne PW, Wehner MF, Wentz FJ, Wigley TML, Wilcox LJ, Zou C-Z (2013) Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:26–33. doi:10.1073/pnas.1210514109 Scheffran J (2008) Climate change and security. Bull Atomic Sci 64(19–25):59–60. doi:10.2968/064002007 Schubert R, Schellnhuber HJ, Buchmann N, Epiney A, Grießhammer R, Kulessa ME, Messner D, Rahmstorf S, Schmid J (2008) Climate change as a security risk. Earthscan, London, England Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:2473–2493. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50188 Smith AB, Katz RW (2013) US Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases. Nat Hazard 67:387–410 Stern N et al (2006) Stern review on the economics of climate change. HM Treasury, London Stott PA, Gillett NP, Hegerl GC, Karoly DJ, Stone DA, Zhang X, Zwiers F (2010) Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 1:192–211. doi:10.1002/wcc.34 Trenberth KE (2011) Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2:925–930. doi:10.1002/wcc.142 Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT (2012) Climate extremes and climate change: the Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D17103. doi:10.1029/2012JD018020 UK Royal Society (UKRS) and US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (2014) Climate change: evidence and causes. National Academy Press, Washington, DC United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2008) Vital water graphics—an overview of the state of the world’s fresh and marine waters. Nairobi, Kenya. ISBN:92-807-2236-0 White R (2012) Climate change from a criminological perspective. http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-1-4614-3640-9.pdf Yamamoto-Kawai M, McLaughlin FA, Carmack EC, Nishino S, Shimada K (2009) Aragonite undersaturation in the arctic ocean: effects of ocean acidification and sea ice melt. Science 326:1098–1100. doi:10.1126/science.1174190 Yin J (2012) Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 39:7. doi:10.1029/2012GL052947 Zwiers F, Alexander L, Hegerl G, Knutson T, Kossin J, Naveau P, Nicholls N, Schaar C, Seneviratne S, Zhang X (2013) Climate extremes: challenges in estimating and understanding recent changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. In: Asrar G, Hurrell J (eds) Climate science for serving society. Springer, Netherlands, pp 339–389