On the problem of calibrating an agent based model for financial markets

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - Tập 8 - Trang 277-293 - 2012
Annalisa Fabretti1
1Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy

Tóm tắt

Agent based models are very widely used in different disciplines. In financial markets, they can be used to explain well known features called stylised facts and fit statistical properties of data. For this reason, they can model price movements better than standard models using gaussianity. Calibration and validation are essential issues in agent-based modeling. However, calibrating such models is not yet sufficiently considered in the literature. In this paper, a Nelder–Mead simplex algorithm coupled with threshold accepting algorithm (Gilli and Winker in Comput Stat Data Anal 42:299–312, 2003) and a genetic algorithm have been implemented to calibrate the model presented by Farmer and Joshi (J Econ Behav Org 49:149–171, 2002) and the outcomes have been compared and discussed. The data used are closing prices of S&P500 Composite index and a particular attention has been devoted to the choice of the objective function.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Calvez B, Hutzler G (2005) Automatic tuning of agent-based models using genetic algorithms. Proc Int Work Multi-Agent Based Sim (MABS’05) 3891: 39–50. doi:10.1007/11734680

Cirillo P, Gallegati M (2012) The empirical validation of an agent-based model. East Econ J. doi:10.1057/eej.2011.34

Delli Gatti D, Desiderio S, Gaffeo E, Cirillo P, Gallegati M (2011) Macroeconomics from the bottom-up. Springer, Berlin

Fonseca CM, Fleming PJ (1993) Genetic algorithms for multi-objective optimization: formulation, discussion, generalization. In: Proceedings of fifth international conference on genetic algorithm, pp 416–423

Hurst HE, Black R, Sinaika YM (1965) Longterm storage in reservoirs: an experimental study. Constable, London

Palin J (2002) Agent-based stockmarket models: calibration issues and application. PhD thesis, University of Sussex, UK

Raberto M, Teglio A, Cincotti S (2011) Debt delevaring and business Cycles. An agent-based perspective. Economics Discussion Papers 2011-31, Kiel Institute for the world economy

Rogers A, Von Tessin P (2004) Multi-objective calibration for and agent-based model. In agent-based simulation May 2004, Lisbon, Portugal

Tesfatsion L, Website on ACE: verification and empirical validation of agent-based computational models. http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/empvalid.htm