Model Representation & Decision-Making in an Ever-Changing World: The Role of Stochastic Process Models of Transportation Systems

Networks and Spatial Economics - Tập 15 - Trang 843-882 - 2013
David P. Watling1, Giulio E. Cantarella2
1Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
2Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, Salerno, Italy

Tóm tắt

We review and advance the state-of-the-art in the modelling of transportation systems as a stochastic process. The conceptual and theoretical basis of the approach is explained in detail. A variety of examples are given to motivate its use in the field. While the examples cover a wide range of modelling philosophies, in order to provide focus they are restricted to modelling a special class of problems involving driver route choice in networks. Our overall objective is to establish the applicability of this approach as a ‘unifying framework’ for modelling approaches involving dynamic and stochastic elements, developing further the ideas put forward in Cantarella & Cascetta (Transportation Science 29, 305–329, 1995). Directions for further development and research are identified.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Bie J, Lo HK (2010) Stability and attraction domains of traffic equilibria in a day-to-day dynamical system formulation. Transp Res B 44:90–107

Balijepalli NC, Watling DP (2005) Doubly dynamic equilibrium approximation model for dynamic traffic assignment. In: Mahmassani H (ed) Transportation and traffic theory: Flow, dynamics and human interaction. Elsevier, Oxford, pp 741–760

Balijepalli NC, Watling DP, Liu R (2007) Doubly dynamic traffic assignment: simulation modelling framework and experimental results. Transp Res Rec 2029:39–48

Bell MGH (2000) A game theory approach to measuring the performance reliability of transport networks. Transp Res B 34:533–545

Ben-Tal A, Chung BD, Mandala SR, Yao T (2011) Robust optimization for emergency logistics planning: risk mitigation in humanitarian relief supply chains. Transp Res B 45:1177–1189

Cantarella GE, Cascetta E (1995) Dynamic process and equilibrium in transportation networks: towards a unifying theory. Transp Sci 29:305–329

Cantarella GE, Watling DP (2013) Modelling road traffic assignment as a day-to-day dynamic process: state-of-the-art and research perspectives. Submitted for publication

Cascetta E (1987) Static and dynamic models of stochastic assignment to transportation networks. In: Szaego G, Bianco L, Odoni A (eds) Flow control of congested networks. Springer Verlag, Berlin

Cascetta E (1989) A stochastic process approach to the analysis of temporal dynamics in transportation networks. Transp Res B 23:1–17

Cascetta E (2009) Transportation systems analysis: Models and applications. Springer

Cascetta E, Cantarella GE (1991) A day-to-day and within-day dynamic stochastic assignment model. Transp Res A 25:277–291

Cascetta E, Cantarella GE (1993) Modelling dynamics in transportation networks. J Simul Pract Theory 1:65–91

Chang GL, Mahmassani HS (1988) Travel time prediction and departure time adjustment behaviour dynamics in a congested traffic system. Transp Res B 22:217–232

Chen R, Mahmassani HS (2004) Travel time perception and learning mechanisms in traffic networks. Transp Res Rec 1894:209–221

Dafermos SC (1980) Continuum modelling of transportation networks. Transp Res B 14:295–301

Daganzo CF (1994) The cell transmission model: a dynamic representation of highway traffic consistent with the hydrodynamic theory. Transp Res B 28:269–287

Daganzo CF, Sheffi Y (1977) On stochastic models of traffic assignment. Transport Sci 11:351–372

Davis G, Nihan N (1993) Large population approximations of a general stochastic traffic assignment model. Oper Res 41:169–178

De Palma A, Picard N, Andrieu L (2012) Risk in transport investments. Netw Spat Econ 12:187–204

Di Domenica N, Mitra G, Valente P, Birbilis G (2007) Stochastic programming and scenario generation within a simulation framework: an information systems perspective. Decis Support Syst 42:2197–2218

Friesz TL, Bernstein D, Kydes N (2004) Dynamic congestion pricing in disequilibrium. Netw Spat Econ 4:181–202

Friesz TL, Mookherjee R, Yao T (2008) Securitizing congestion: the congestion call option. Transp Res B 42:407–437

Ghosh B, Basu B, O’Mahony M (2007) Bayesian time-series model for short-term traffic flow forecasting. J Transp Eng 133:180–189

Goodwin PB (1998) The end of equilibrium. In: Garling T, Laitila T, Westin K (eds) Theoretical foundations of travel choice modelling. Elsevier, Amsterdam

Guo X, Liu H (2010) Bounded rationality and irreversible network change. Transp Res B 45:1606–1618

Guo X, Liu H (2011) A day-to-day dynamic model in discrete/continuum transportation networks. Transportation Research Record 2263:66–72

Han L, Du L (2012) On a link-based day-to-day traffic assignment model. Transp Res B 46:72–84

Hazelton ML, Watling DP (2004) Computation of equilibrium distributions of Markov traffic assignment models. Transp Sci 38:331–342

He X, Liu HX (2012) Modeling the day-to-day traffic evolution process after an unexpected network disruption. Transp Res B 46:50–71

Ho HW, Wong SC (2007) Housing allocation problem in a continuum transportation system. Transportmetrica 3:21–39

Hofbauer J, Sandholm WH (2007) Evolution in games with randomly disturbed payoffs. J Econ Theory 132:47–69

Hoogendoorn SP, Bovy PHL (2004) Dynamic user-optimal assignment in continuous time and space. Transp Res B 38:571–592

Horowitz JL (1984) The stability of stochastic equilibrium in a two-link transportation network. Transp Res B 18:13–28

Hu T-Y, Mahmassani HS (1997) Day-to-day evolution of network flows under real-time information and reactive signal control. Transp Res C 5:51–69

Huang L, Wong SC, Zhang M, Shu CW, Lam WHK (2009) A reactive dynamic user equilibrium model for pedestrian flows: a continuum modelling approach. Transp Res B 43:127–141

Iida Y, Akiyama T, Uchida T (1992) Experimental analysis of dynamic route choice behaviour. Transp Res B 26:17–32

Leurent FM (1998) Sensitivity and error analysis of the dual criteria traffic assignment model. Transp Res B 32:189–204

Liu R, Van Vliet D, Watling D (2006) Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply side dynamics. Transp Res 40A(2):125–150

Okutani I, Stephanedes YJ (1984) Dynamic prediction of traffic volume through Kalman Filtering Theory. Transp Res B 18:1–11

Pfaffenbichler P, Emberger G, Shepherd S (2008) The integrated dynamic land use and transport model MARS. Netw Spat Econ 8:183–200

Rickert M, Nagel K, Schreckenberg M (1996) Two lane traffic simulation using cellular automata. Physica A 231:534–550

Sheffi Y (1985) Urban transportation networks. Prentice Hall, New Jersey

Shepherd SP, Zhang X, Emberger G, May AD, Hudson M, Paulley N (2006) Designing optimal urban transport strategies: the role of individual policy instruments and the impact of financial constraints. Transport Policy 13:49–65

Smith MJ (1984) The stability of a dynamic model of traffic assignment: an application of a method of Lyapunov. Transp Sci 18:245–252

Stokey NL, Lucas RE (1989) Recursive methods in economic dynamics. Harvard University Press, Cambridge

Vlahogiannia EI, Golias JC, Karlaftisa MG (2004) Short–term traffic forecasting: overview of objectives and methods. Transp Rev 24:533–557

Watling DP (1996) Asymmetric problems and stochastic process models of traffic assignment. Transp Res B 30:339–357

Watling DP (1999) Stability of the stochastic equilibrium assignment problem: a dynamical systems approach. Transp Res B 33:281–312

Watling DP, Cantarella GE (2013) Modelling sources of variation in transportation systems: theoretical foundations of day-to-day dynamic models. Transportmetrica B: Transp Dyn 1(1):3–32

Wegener (2004) Overview of land-use transport models. In: Hensher DA, Button K (eds) Transport geography and spatial systems. Pergamon, Kidlington, pp 127–146

Wilson NHM, Nuzzolo A (2009) Schedule-based modelling of transportation networks. Springer, New York

Wong SC (1998) Multi-commodity traffic assignment by continuum approximation of network flow with variable demand. Transp Res B 32:567–581

Yang F, Liu HX (2007) A new modelling framework for travellers’ day-to-day route adjustment processes. In: Allsop RE, Bell MGH, Heydecker BG (eds) Transportation and traffic theory. Elsevier, 813–837.

Zhao T, Sundararajan SK, Tseng C-L (2004) Highway development decision-making under uncertainty: a real options approach. J Infrastruct Syst 10:23–32

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Networks and Spatial Economics

Tập 15

843-882

Thông tin tác giả