Các phương pháp thống kê mở rộng để mô hình hóa mẫu không gian trong đa dạng sinh học ở phía đông bắc New South Wales. I. Mô hình hóa cấp độ loài

Anderson R.S. and Ashe J.S. 2000. Leaf litter inhabiting beetles as surrogates for establishing priorities for conservation of selected tropical montane cloud forests in Honduras, Central America (Coleoptera; Staphylinidae, Curculionidae). Biodiversity and Conservation 9: 617–653.

Anonymous 1992. National Forest Policy Statement: a New Focus for Australia's Forests. Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, Australia.

Augustin N.H., Mugglestone M.A. and Buckland S.T. 1996. An autologistic model for the spatial distribution of wildlife. Journal of Applied Ecology 33: 339–347.

Austin M.P. 1998. An ecological perspective on biodiversity investigations: examples from Australian eucalypt forests. Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden 85: 2–17.

Austin M.P. and Meyers J.A. 1996. Current approaches to modeling the environmental niche of eucalypts: implications for management of biodiversity. Forest Ecology and Management 85: 95–106.

Austin M.P., Cunningham R.B. and Fleming P.M. 1984. New approaches to direct gradient analysis using environmental scalars and statistical curve-fitting procedures. Vegetatio 55: 11–27.

Beard K.H., Hengartner N. and Skelly D.K. 1999. Effectiveness of predicting breeding bird distributions using probabilistic models. Conservation Biology 13: 1108–1116.

Belbin L. 1991. Semi-strong hybrid scaling, a new ordination algorithm. Journal of Vegetation Science 2: 491–496.

Bennett S., Watson G. and Barratt D. 1997. Species Distribution Modelling Toolkit (SPMODEL). User's Manual. Environment Forest Group, Environment Australia, Canberra, Australia.

Bio A.M.F., Alkemade R. and Barendregt A. 1998. Determining alternative models for vegetation response analysis: a non-parametric approach. Journal of Vegetation Science 9: 5–16.

Boyce M.S., Vernier P.R., Nielsen S.E. and Schmiegelow F.K.A. 2002. Evaluating resource selection functions. Ecological Modelling 157: 279–298.

Brieman L., Friedman J.H., Olshen R.A. and Stone C.J. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Wadsworth International Group, Belmont, California.

Caro T.M. and O'Doherty G. 1999. On the use of surrogate species in conservation biology. Conservation Biology 13: 805–814.

Cleveland W.S., Grosse E. and Shyu W.M. 1992. Local regression models. In: Chambers J.M. and Hastie T.J. (eds) Statistical Models in S. Wadsworth and Brooks, Pacific Grove, California, pp. 309–376.

Commonwealth of Australia 1997. Nationally Agreed Criteria for the Establishment of a Comprehensive, Adequate and Representative Reserve System for Forest in Australia. A Report by the Joint ANZECC/MCFFA National Forest Policy Statement Implementation Sub-committee. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, Australia.

Cowling R.M., Pressey R.L., Lombard A.T., Desmet P.G. and Ellis A.G. 1999. From representation to persistence: requirements for a sustainable system of conservation areas in the species-rich mediterranean-climate desert of southern Africa. Diversity and Distributions 5: 51–71.

Cox D.R. 1958. Two further applications of a model for binary regression. Biometrika 45: 562–565.

Dinerstein E., Powell G., Olson D., Wikramanayake E., Abell R., Loucks C., Underwood E., Allnutt T., Wettengel W., Ricketts T., Strand H., O'Connor S. and Burgess N. 2000. A Workbook for Conducting Biological Assessments and Developing Biodiversity Visions for Ecoregion-Based Conservation. Part 1: Terrestrial Ecoregions. Conservation Science Program, World Wildlife Fund, Washington, DC.

Edwards Jr, T.C., Deshler E.T., Foster D. and Moisen G.G. 1996. Adequacy of wildlife habitat relation models for estimating spatial distributions of terrestrial vertebrates. Conservation Biology 10: 263–270.

Elith J. 2000. Quantitative methods for modeling species habitat: comparative performance and an application to Australian plants. In: Ferson S. and Burgman M. (eds) Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology. Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 39–58.

Environment Australia 1999. Response to Disturbance of Forest Species, Upper North East and Lower North East Regions. A Project Undertaken As Part of the NSW Comprehensive Regional Assessments. Resource and Conservation Division, Department of Urban Affairs and Planning, Sydney, Australia.

Ferrier S. 1984. The Status of the Rufous Scrub-Bird Atrichornis Rufescens: Habitat, Geographical Variation and Abundance. Ph.D. Thesis. University of New England, Armidale, Australia.

Ferrier S. 1991. Computer-based spatial extension of forest fauna survey data: current issues, problems and directions. In: Lunney D. (ed) Conservation of Australia's Forest Fauna. Royal Zoological Society of NSW, Sydney, Australia, pp. 221–227.

Ferrier S. 1992a. Development of a Predictive Modelling Module for E-RMS. Unpublished consultancy report prepared by NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. Australian National Parks and Wildlife Service, Canberra, Australia.

Ferrier S. 1992b. Environmental Resource Mapping System. User's Manual. New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, Sydney, Australia.

Ferrier S. 1997. Biodiversity data for reserve selection: making best use of incomplete information. In: Pigram J.J. and Sundell R.C. (eds) National Parks and Protected Areas: Selection, Delimitation and Management. Centre for Water Policy Research, University of New England, Armidale, Australia, pp. 315–329.

Ferrier S. 2000. Applications and directions post-1995. In: Brown D., Hines H., Ferrier S. and McKay K. (eds) Establishment of a Biological Information Base for Regional Conservation Planning in Northeast New SouthWales, Phase 1 (1991–1995). Occasional Paper no. 26, New SouthWales National Parks and Wildlife Service, Sydney, Australia, pp. 151–154.

Ferrier S. 2002. Mapping spatial pattern in biodiversity for regional conservation planning: where to from here? Systematic Biology 51: 331–363.

Ferrier S. and Smith A.P. 1990. Using geographical information systems for biological survey design, analysis and extrapolation. Australian Biologist 3: 105–116.

Ferrier S. and Watson G. 1994. Modelling the spatial distribution of forest fauna and flora: approaches to reducing and evaluating prediction error. In: Anonymous (ed) Proceedings of International Biodiversity Conference: Conserving Biological Diversity in Temperate Forest Ecosystems – Towards Sustainable Management. Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, pp. 81–82.

Ferrier S. and Watson G. 1997. An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Environmental Surrogates and Modelling Techniques in Predicting the Distribution of Biological Diversity. Environment Australia, Canberra, Australia.

Ferrier S., Gray M.R., Cassis G.A. and Wilkie L. 1999a. Spatial turnover in species composition of grounddwelling arthropods, vertebrates and vascular plants in northeast New South Wales: implications for selection of forest reserves. In: Ponder W. and Lunney D. (eds) The Other 99%. The Conservation and Biodiversity of Invertebrates. Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, pp. 68–76.

Ferrier S., Pearce J., Drielsma M., Watson G., Manion G., Whish G. and Raaphorst S. 1999b. Evaluation and Refinement of Techniques for Modelling Distributions of Species, Communities and Assemblages. Unpublished report prepared for Environment Australia. New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, Sydney, Australia.

Ferrier S., Brown D. and Hines H. 2000a. Environmental GIS database. In: Brown D., Hines H., Ferrier S. and McKay K. (eds) Establishment of a Biological Information Base for Regional Conservation Planning in Northeast New South Wales, Phase 1 (1991–1995). Occasional Paper no. 26, New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, Sydney, Australia, pp. 33–76.

Ferrier S., Brown D., Hines H., Scotts D., Griffiths S. and Hunter J. 2000b. Introduction. In: Brown D., Hines H., Ferrier S. and McKay K. (eds) Establishment of a Biological Information Base for Regional Conservation Planning in Northeast New South Wales, Phase 1 (1991–1995). Occasional Paper no. 26, New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, Sydney, Australia, pp. 15–28.

Ferrier S., Pressey R.L. and Barrett T.W. 2000c. A new predictor of the irreplaceability of areas for achieving a conservation goal, its application to real-world planning, and a research agenda for further refinement. Biological Conservation 93: 303–325.

Ferrier S., Watson G., Hines H. and Brown D. 2000d. Predictive modelling of biological data. In: Brown D., Hines H., Ferrier S. and McKay K. (eds) Establishment of a Biological Information Base for Regional Conservation Planning in Northeast New South Wales, Phase 1 (1991–1995). Occasional Paper no. 26, New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, Sydney, Australia, pp. 97–130.

Ferrier S., DrielsmaM., Manion G. and Watson G. 2002. Extended statistical approaches to modelling spatial pattern in biodiversity in northeast New South Wales. II. Community-level modelling. Biodiversity and Conservation 11: 2309–2338 (this issue).

Fielding A.H. and Bell J.F. 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 24: 38–49.

Finkel E. 1998. Ecology: software helps Australia manage forest debate. Science 281: 1789–1791.

Flather C.H. and King R.M. 1992. Evaluating performance of regional wildlife habitat models: implications to resource planning. Journal of Environmental Management 34: 31–46.

Franklin J. 1995. Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography 19: 474–499.

Franklin J. 1998. Predicting the distribution of shrub species in southern California from climate and terrain-derived variables. Journal of Vegetation Science 9: 733–748.

Gioia P. and Pigott J.P. 2000. Biodiversity assessment: a case study in predicting richness from the potential distributions of plant species in the forests of southwestern Australia. Journal of Biogeography 27: 1065–1078.

Groves C., Valutis L., Vosick D., Neely B., Wheaton K., Touval J. and Runnels B. 2000. Designing a Geography of Hope: a Practitioner's Handbook for Ecoregional Conservation Planning, 2nd ed. The Nature Conservancy, Washington, DC.

Guisan A. and Zimmermann N.E. 2000. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135: 147–186.

Hanski I. 1999a. Habitat connectivity, habitat continuity, and metapopulations in dynamic landscapes. Oikos 87: 209–219.

Hanski I. 1999b. Metapopulation Ecology. Oxford University Press, New York.

Hastie T.J. and Tibshirani R. 1990. Generalised Additive Models. Chapman & Hall, London.

Hines H., Brown D. and Scotts D. 2000. Biological surveys. In: Brown D., Hines H., Ferrier S. and McKay K. (eds) Establishment of a Biological Information Base for Regional Conservation Planning in Northeast New SouthWales, Phase 1 (1991–1995). Occasional Paper no. 26, New SouthWales National Parks and Wildlife Service, Sydney, Australia, pp. 77–96.

Humphries C.J., Williams P.H. and Vane-Wright R.I. 1995. Measuring biodiversity value for conservation. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26: 93–111.

Hutchinson M.F., Belbin L., Nicholls A.O., Nix H.A., McMahon J.P. and Ord K.D. 1997. BioRap Rapid Assessment of Biodiversity, Vol 2. Spatial Modelling Tools. Australian BioRap Consortium, CSIRO, Canberra, Australia.

Kremen C. 1994. Biological inventory using target taxa: a case study of the butterflies of Madagascar. Ecological Applications 4: 407–422.

Lambeck R.J. 1997. Focal species: a multi-species umbrella for nature conservation. Conservation Biology 11: 849–856.

Lawes M.J. and Piper S.E. 1998. There is less to binary maps than meets the eye: the use of species distribution data in the Southern African Sub-region. South African Journal of Science 94: 207–210.

Leathwick J.R. 1995. Climatic relationships of some New Zealand forest tree species. Journal of Vegetation Science 6: 237–248.

Leathwick J.R. 1998. Are New Zealand's Nothofagus species in equilibrium with their environment? Journal of Vegetation Science 9: 719–732.

Legendre P. 1993. Spatial autocorrelation: trouble or new paradigm? Ecology 74: 1659–1673.

Lehmann A., Overton J.McC. and Leathwick J.R. 2002. GRASP: generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions. Ecological Modelling 157: 187–205.

Maddock A. and du Plessis M.A. 1999. Can species data only be appropriately used to conserve biodiversity? Biodiversity and Conservation 8: 603–615.

Manly B.J.F., McDonald L.L. and Thomas D.L. 1993. Resource Selection by Animals: Statistical Design and Analysis for Field Studies. Chapman & Hall, London.

Margules C.R. and Austin M.P. 1994. Biological models for monitoring species decline: the construction and use of data bases. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London, B 344: 69–75.

Margules C.R. and Pressey R.L. 2000. Systematic conservation planning. Nature 405: 243–253.

Margules C.R. and Redhead T.D. 1995. Guidelines for Using the BioRap Methodology and Tools. CSIRO, Canberra, Australia.

McCullagh P. and Nelder J.A. 1989. Generalized Linear Models, 2nd ed. Chapman & Hall, London.

Miller J. and Franklin J. 2002. Predictive vegetation modelling with spatial dependence: vegetation alliances in the Mojave Desert. Ecological Modelling 157: 225–245.

Miller M.E., Hui S.L. and Tierney W.M. 1991. Validation techniques for logistic regression models. Statistics in Medicine 10: 1213–1226.

Moore D.M., Lees B.G. and Davey S.M. 1991. A new method for predicting vegetation distributions using decision tree analysis in a geographic information system. Environmental Management 15: 59–71.

Murphy A.H. and Winkler R.L. 1992. Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting 7: 435–455.

Myers N., Mittermeier R.A., Mittermeier C.G., da Fonseca G.A.B. and Kent J. 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403: 853–858.

Noss R.F. 1987. From plant communities to landscapes in conservation inventories: a look at the Nature Conservancy (USA). Biological Conservation 41: 11–37.

Noss R.F. 1990. Indicators for monitoring biodiversity: a hierarchical approach. Conservation Biology 4: 355–364.

NSW NPWS 1999. Modelling Areas of Habitat Significance for Vertebrate Fauna and Vascular Flora in North East NSW. A Project Undertaken As Part of the NSW Comprehensive Regional Assessments. Resource and Conservation Division, Department of Urban Affairs and Planning, Sydney, Australia.

Olson D.M. and Dinerstein E. 1998. The Global 200: a representation approach to conserving the Earth's most biologically valuable ecoregions. Conservation Biology 12: 502–515.

Pearce J. and Ferrier S. 2000a. Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling 133: 225–245.

Pearce J. and Ferrier S. 2000b. An evaluation of alternative algorithms for fitting species distribution models using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling 128: 127–147.

Pearce J. and Ferrier S. 2001. The practical value of modelling relative abundance of species for regional conservation planning. Biological Conservation 98: 33–43.

Pearce J., Ferrier S. and Scotts D. 2001a. An evaluation of the predictive performance of distributional models for flora and fauna in northeast NSW. Journal of Environmental Management 62: 171–184.

Pearce J., Cherry K., Drielsma M., Ferrier S. and Whish G. 2001b. Incorporating expert opinion and finescale vegetation mapping into statistical models of faunal distribution. Journal of Applied Ecology 38: 412–424.

Polasky S., Camm J.D., Solow A.R., Csuti B., White D. and Ding R. 2000. Choosing reserve networks with incomplete species information. Biological Conservation 94: 1–10.

Pressey R.L. 1998. Algorithms, politics and timber: an example of the role of science in a public, political negotiation process over new conservation areas in production forests. In: Wills R. and Hobbs R. (eds) Ecology for Everyone: Communicating Ecology to Scientists. Surrey Beatty and Sons, Sydney, Australia, pp. 73–87.

Pressey R.L. 1999. Applications of irreplaceability analysis to planning and management problems. Parks 9(1): 42–51.

Pressey R.L., Humphries C.J., Margules C.R., Vane-Wright R.I. and Williams P.H. 1993. Beyond opportunism: key principles for systematic reserve selection. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8: 124–128.

Simberloff D. 1998. Flagships, umbrellas, and keystones: is single-species management passé in the landscape era? Biological Conservation 83: 247–257.

Smith T.B., Bruford M.W. and Wayne R.K. 1993. The preservation of process: the missing element of conservation programs. Biodiversity Letters 1: 164–167.

Soberón J.M., Llorente J.B. and Oñate L. 2000. The use of specimen-label databases for conservation purposes: an example using Mexican Papilionid and Pierid butterflies. Biodiversity and Conservation 9: 1441–1466.

Stockwell D.R.B., Davey S.M., Davis J.R. and Noble I.R. 1990. Using induction of decision trees to predict Greater Glider density. AI Applications 4(4): 33–43.

ter Braak C.J.F. 1986. Canonical correspondence analysis: a new eigenvector technique for multivariate direct gradient analysis. Ecology 67: 1167–1179.

Thackway R. and Creswell I.D. 1997. A bioregional framework for planning the national system of protected areas in Australia. Natural Areas Journal 17: 241–247.

Vane-Wright R.I. 1996. Identifying priorities for the conservation of biodiversity: systematic biological criteria within a socio-political framework. In: Gaston K.J. (ed) Biodiversity: a Biology of Numbers and Difference. Blackwell, Oxford, UK, pp. 309–341.

Watson G. 1996. Predictive Species Modelling: User Manual. Unpublished report. Environment Australia, Canberra, Australia.

Williams P.H. and AraÚjo M.B. 2000. Using probability of persistence to identify important areas for biodiversity conservation. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London, B 267: 1959–1966.

Yee T.W. and Mitchell N.D. 1991. Generalized additive models in plant ecology. Journal of Vegetation Science 2: 587–602.

Zaniewski A.E., Lehmann A. and Overton J.McC. 2002. Predicting species distribution using presenceonly data: a case study of native New Zealand ferns. Ecological Modelling 157: 259–278.