Day-to-Day Travel-Time Trends and Travel-Time Prediction from Loop-Detector Data

Transportation Research Record - Tập 1717 Số 1 - Trang 120-129 - 2000
Jaimyoung Kwon1, Benjamin Coifman2, Peter J. Bickel1
1Department of Statistics, University of California, 367 Evans Hall #3860, Berkeley, CA 94720-3860
2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Geodetic Science, Department of Electrical Engineering, Ohio State University, 470 Hitchcock Hall, 2070 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210-1275

Tóm tắt

An approach is presented for estimating future travel times on a freeway using flow and occupancy data from single-loop detectors and historical travel-time information. Linear regression, with the stepwise-variable-selection method and more advanced tree-based methods, is used. The analysis considers forecasts ranging from a few minutes into the future up to an hour ahead. Leave-a-day-out cross-validation was used to evaluate the prediction errors without underestimation. The current traffic state proved to be a good predictor for the near future, up to 20 min, whereas historical data are more informative for longer-range predictions. Tree-based methods and linear regression both performed satisfactorily, showing slightly different qualitative behaviors for each condition examined in this analysis. Unlike preceding works that rely on simulation, real traffic data were used. Although the current implementation uses measured travel times from probe vehicles, the ultimate goal is an autonomous system that relies strictly on detector data. In the course of presenting the prediction system, the manner in which travel times change from day to day was examined, and several metrics to quantify these changes were developed. The metrics can be used as input for travel-time prediction, but they also should be beneficial for other applications, such as calibrating traffic models and planning models.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.3141/1554-24

Petty K., 1998, Transportation Research, 32, 1, 10.1016/S0191-2615(97)00003-9

10.3141/1643-22

10.1016/0191-2607(91)90142-D

Ben-Akiva M., 1994, Proc., 1st World Congress on Applications of Transportation Telematics and Intelligent Vehicle-Highway Systems, 3, 1166

10.1007/978-3-642-79641-8_4

10.1007/978-3-642-79641-8_1

Wild D., TNO Institute for Policy Studies, 49

Uerlings U., 1994, TNO Institute for Policy Studies, 27

Hoffman G., IEE Conference Publication Number 320, 6

10.3141/1617-23

Draper N. R., 1981, Applied Regression Analysis

10.1007/978-1-4899-2819-1

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Transportation Research Record

Tập 1717 Số 1

120-129

Thông tin tác giả