Current estimates of freshwater flux through Arctic and subarctic seas

Progress in Oceanography - Tập 73 - Trang 210-230 - 2007
Robert Dickson1, Bert Rudels2, Stephen Dye1, Michael Karcher3,4, Jens Meincke5, Igor Yashayaev6
1Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, UK
2Finnish Institute for Marine Research, FI-00561 Helsinki, Finland
3Alfred Wegener Institut für Polar und Meeresforschung, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
4O.A.Sys – Ocean Atmosphere Systems, D-20357 Hamburg, Germany
5University of Hamburg, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
6Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada NS B2Y 4A2

Tài liệu tham khảo

Aagaard, 1989, The role of sea-ice and other freshwater in the Arctic Circulation, Journal of Geophysical Research, 94, 14485, 10.1029/JC094iC10p14485 Aagaard, 1975, Towards new mass and heat budgets for the Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, 80, 3821, 10.1029/JC080i027p03821 Bacon, 1997, Circulation and fluxes in the North Atlantic between Greenland and Ireland, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 27, 1420, 10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1420:CAFITN>2.0.CO;2 Bacon, 2002, A freshwater jet on the East Greenland shelf, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 107, 1 Bergstrom, 1994, River runoff to the Baltic Sea, 1950–1990, Ambio, 23, 280 Blindheim, 1989, Cascading of Barents Sea bottom water into the Norwegian Sea, Rapports et Procès-Verbaux de Réunions du Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer, 188, 49 Comiso, 2002, A rapidly declining Arctic perennial ice cover, Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 1956, 10.1029/2002GL015650 Cuny, 2006, Davis Strait volume, freshwater and heat fluxes, Deep-Sea Research Part I, 52, 519, 10.1016/j.dsr.2004.10.006 Curry, 2005, Dilution of the Northern North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades, Science, 308, 1772, 10.1126/science.1109477 Curry, 2001, Ocean gyre circulation changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 31, 3374, 10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031<3374:OGCCAW>2.0.CO;2 Curry, 2003, A change in the fresh water balance of the Atlantic over the past four decades, Nature, 426, 826, 10.1038/nature02206 Dery, 2005, Decreasing river discharge in northern Canada, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L10401, 10.1029/2005GL022845 Dickson, 1988, The great salinity anomaly in the Northern North Atlantic 1968–82, Progress in Oceanography, 20, 103, 10.1016/0079-6611(88)90049-3 Dickson, 2000, The Arctic Ocean response to the North Atlantic oscillation, Journal of Climate, 13, 2671, 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2671:TAORTT>2.0.CO;2 Dickson, 2002, Rapid freshening of the deep North Atlantic over the past four decades, Nature, 416, 832, 10.1038/416832a Dickson, 2003, Recent changes in the North Atlantic, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A, 361, 1917, 10.1098/rsta.2003.1237 Dukhovskoy, 2006, Arctic decadal variability from an idealized atmosphere-ice-ocean model: 2. Simulation of decadal oscillations, Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, C06029, 10.1029/2004JC002820 Fichefet, 2003, Implications of changes in freshwater flux from Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st Century, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 3498, 10.1029/2003GL017826 Flato, 2004, Sea-ice and its response to CO2 forcing as simulated by global climate models, Climate Dynamics, 23, 229, 10.1007/s00382-004-0436-7 Goosse, 1997, The effects of the water flow through the Canadian Archipelago in a global ice-ocean model, Geophysical Research Letters, 24, 1507, 10.1029/97GL01352 Greenberg, 2004, Diagnostic simulations of the summer circulation in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, ASOF Newsletter 2 Gregory, 2000, Predictions of global and regional sea-level rise using AOGCMs with and without flux adjustment, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 3069, 10.1029/1999GL011228 Gregory, 2002, Recent and future changes in Arctic sea-ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM, Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 2175, 10.1029/2001GL014575 Haak, 2005, Arctic Ocean freshwater budget variability, ASOF Newsletter, 3, 6 Hakkinen, 2004, Freshwater content variability in the Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, C03051, 10.1029/2003JC001940 Hansen, 2000, North Atlantic–Nordic Seas exchanges, Progress in Oceanography, 45, 109, 10.1016/S0079-6611(99)00052-X Hansen, 2004, Already the day after tomorrow?, Science, 305, 953, 10.1126/science.1100085 Hansen, E., Holfort, J., Karcher, M. 2006. Comparing observed and modelled freshwater fluxes: preliminary results, ASOF-N WP4 Report 2006. Holfort, J., Hansen, E. 2004. Report of the freshwater fluxes through Fram Strait (preliminary results). Report to ASOF-N 2004, 6pp mimeo +8 figs. Holfort, 2005, Time-series of freshwater-transport on the East Greenland Shelf at 74°N, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 14, 703, 10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0079 Holland, 2003, Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models, Climate Dynamics, 21, 221, 10.1007/s00382-003-0332-6 Holloway, 2002, Has Arctic Ice rapidly thinned?, Journal of Climate, 15, 1691, 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1691:HASIRT>2.0.CO;2 Houghton, 2002, Quasi-decadal salinity fluctuations in the Labrador Sea, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 32, 687, 10.1175/1520-0485(2002)032<0687:QDSFIT>2.0.CO;2 Hu, 2004, Sea-ice change and its connection with climate change in the Arctic in CMIP2 simulations, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D10106, 10.1029/2003JD004454 Ingram, 1998, Coastal oceanography of Hudson Bay and surrounding eastern Canadian Arctic waters coastal segment, vol. 11, 835 Ingvaldsen, 2004, Velocity field of the western entrance to the Barents Sea, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, C03021, 10.1029/2003JC001811 Ingvaldsen, 2004, The seasonal cycle in the Atlantic transport to the Barents Sea during the years 1997–2001, Continental Shelf Research, 24, 1015, 10.1016/j.csr.2004.02.011 IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of WG 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, W., Maskell, K., & Johnson, C.A.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK. 881pp. Johannesen, 1999, Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea-ice cover in transformation, Nature, 286, 1937 Jonsson, S., 2003. The transport of water and freshwater within the East Icelandic Current. Poster European Geophysical Society, Nice. Jonsson, S., & Briem, J., 2003. The transport of water and fresh water with the East Icelandic Current. ICES CM 2003/T:05, 12pp +9 Figs. (mimeo). Jungclaus, 2005, Arctic–North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation, Journal of Climate, 18, 4013, 10.1175/JCLI3462.1 Karcher, 2005, Arctic Ocean change heralds North Atlantic freshening, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L21606, 10.1029/2005GL023861 Karcher, 2006, Modeling of δ18O and 99Tc dispersion in Arctic and subarctic seas, ASOF Newsletter Kliem, 2003, Diagnostic simulations of the summer circulation in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Atmosphere-Ocean, 41, 273, 10.3137/ao.410402 Koeberle, 2003, Mechanisms determining the variability of Arctic sea ice conditions and export, Journal of Climate, 16, 2843, 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2843:MDTVOA>2.0.CO;2 Koeberle, C., Gerdes, R., 2007. Simulated variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater balance 1948–2001, Journal of Physical Oceanography, in press. Koenigk, 2005, Modelling Arctic Sea ice variability and its Impact on climate, ASOF Newsletter, 3, 9 Kwok, 2004, Fram Strait sea ice outflow, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, C01009, 10.1029/2003JC001785 Lammers, 2001, Assessment of contemporary Arctic river runoff based on observational discharge records, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 3321, 10.1029/2000JD900444 Laxon, 2003, High interannual variability of sea-ice thickness in the Arctic region, Nature, 425, 947, 10.1038/nature02050 Lazier, 1995, The salinity decrease in the Labrador Sea over the past thirty years, 295 Lindsay, 2005, The thinning of arctic sea ice, 1988–2003: have we passed a tipping point?, Journal of Climate, 18, 4879, 10.1175/JCLI3587.1 Loder, 1998, The coastal ocean off northeastern North America: a large-scale view, vol. 11, 105 Losch, 2005, FEMSECT: an Inverse Section Model Based on the Finite Element Method, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, C12023, 10.1029/2005JC002910 Maslowski, W., 2003. High resolution modelling of the Arctic Ocean: a decade of progress. In: Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) Final Science Conference, St Petersburg Russia, 11–14 November, 2003. Available from: <http://acsys.npolar.no/meetings/final/abstracts/abstracts.php>. Maslowski, 2000, Modeling recent climate variability in the Arctic Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 3743, 10.1029/1999GL011227 Melling, 2000, Exchanges of freshwater through the shallow straits of the North American Arctic, 479 Melling, 2004, Fluxes through the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, ASOF Newsletter, 2 Meredith, 2001, Freshwater fluxes through the western Fram Strait, Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 1615, 10.1029/2000GL011992 Mosby, 1962, Water, salt and heat balance of the North Polar Sea and of the Norwegian Sea, Geofysiske Publikasjoner, 24, 289 Münchow, 2006, An observational estimate of volume and freshwater flux leaving the Arctic Ocean through Nares Strait, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 111, C07016 Myers, 2005, Impact of freshwater from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on Labrador Sea Water formation, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L06605, 10.1029/2004GL022082 Østerhus, 2005, Measured volume, heat and salt fluxes from the Atlantic to the Arctic Mediterranean, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L07601, 10.1029/2004GL022188 Peterson, 2002, Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean, Science, 289, 2171, 10.1126/science.1077445 Pickart, 2005, The East Greenland Spilljet, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 35, 1037, 10.1175/JPO2734.1 Polyakov, 2000, Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 4097, 10.1029/2000GL011909 Prinsenberg, S.J., 1977. Freshwater budget of Hudson Bay. Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Manuscript Report Series Number 5, Burlington, Ontario, 71pp. Prinsenberg, 1988, Ice ridge contributions to the freshwater contents of Hudson Bay and Foxe Basin, Arctic, 41, 6, 10.14430/arctic1686 Prinsenberg, 1987, Mixing and transports in Barrow Strait, the central part of the Northwest Passage, Continental Shelf Research, 7, 913, 10.1016/0278-4343(87)90006-9 Prinsenberg, 2004, Oceanic fluxes through Lancaster Sound of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, ASOF Newsletter, 2, 8 Prinsenberg, 2005, Monitoring the volume, freshwater and heat fluxes passing through Lancaster Sound in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Atmosphere-Ocean, 43, 1, 10.3137/ao.430101 Proshutinsky, 1997, Two circulation regimes of the wind-driven Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 12,493, 10.1029/97JC00738 Proshutinsky, 2002, The role of the Beaufort Gyre in Arctic climate variability: seasonal to decadal climate scales, Journal of Geophysical Research, 29 Prowse, 2000, The magnitude of riverflow to the Arctic Ocean: dependence on contributing area, Hydrological Processes, 14, 3185, 10.1002/1099-1085(200011/12)14:16/17<3185::AID-HYP170>3.0.CO;2-S Rignot, 2006, Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Science, 311, 986, 10.1126/science.1121381 Ross, 1992, Moored current meter measurements across Davis Strait, NAFO Research Document, 92/70 Rothrock, 2005, Arctic Ocean sea ice volume: What explains its recent depletion?, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, C01002, 10.1029/2004JC002282 Rothrock, 1999, Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 3469, 10.1029/1999GL010863 Rothrock, 2003, The Arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: a consistent view from models and observations, Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 3083, 10.1029/2001JC001208 Rudels, 1986, The outflow of polar water through the Arctic Archipelago and the oceanographic conditions in Baffin Bay, Polar Research, 4, 161, 10.1111/j.1751-8369.1986.tb00528.x Rudels, 2000, Water mass distribution in Fram Strait and over the Yermak Plateau in summer 1997, Annales Geophysicae, 18, 687, 10.1007/s00585-000-0687-5 Rudels, 2005, The interactions between waters from the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas north of Fram Strait and along the East Greenland Current: results from the Arctic Ocean-02 Oden expedition, Journal of Marine Systems, 55, 1, 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.06.008 Saucier, 2004, Modeling the sea ice-ocean seasonal cycle in Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin and Hudson Strait, Canada, Climate Dynamics, 23, 303, 10.1007/s00382-004-0445-6 Schauer, 2004, Arctic warming through the Fram Strait: Oceanic heat transports from 3 years of measurements, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, C06026, 10.1029/2003JC001823 Schlosser, 2002, Decrease of river runoff in the upper waters of the Eurasian Basin, Arctic Ocean, between 1991 and 1996: evidence from D18O data, Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 1289, 10.1029/2001GL013135 Serreze, 2006, The large-scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic, Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, C11010, 10.1029/2005JC003424 Shiklomanov, 2000, The dynamics of river water inflow to the Arctic Ocean, 479 Shiklomanov, A.I., Lammers, R.B., Vorosmarty, C.J., 2002. Widespread decline in hydrological monitoring threatens pan-Arctic research. Eos, 83, 13, 16, 17. Sroeve, 2005, Tracking the Arctic’s shrinking ice cover: another extreme September minimum in 2004, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L04501, 10.1029/2004GL021810 Steele, 1998, Retreat of the cold halocline layer in the Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 10,419, 10.1029/98JC00580 Steele, 1996, A simple model study of the Arctic freshwater balance, 1979–1985, Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, 20833, 10.1029/96JC01686 Stigebrandt, 1981, A model for the thickness and the salinity of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean and the relationship between the ice thickness and some external parameters, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 11, 1407, 10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<1407:AMFTTA>2.0.CO;2 Swift, 2005, Long-term variability of Arctic Ocean waters: Evidence from a reanalysis of the EWG data set, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, C03012, 10.1029/2004JC002312 Tang, 2004, The circulation, watermasses and sea-ice of Baffin Bay, Progress in Oceanography, 63, 183, 10.1016/j.pocean.2004.09.005 Vellinga, 2005, Sensitivity of MOC to vertical distribution of freshwater perturbations, ASOF Newsletter, 3, 18 Vinje, 2001, Fram Strait ice fluxes and the atmospheric circulation: 1950–2000, Journal of Climate, 14, 3508, 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3508:FSIFAA>2.0.CO;2 Wadhams, 2000, Further evidence of ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 3973, 10.1029/2000GL011802 Wadley, 2002, Impact of flow through the Canadian Archipelago and Bering Strait on the North Atlantic and Arctic circulation: an ocean modelling study, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128, 2187, 10.1256/qj.00.35 Widell, 2003, Sea ice velocity in the Fram Strait monitored by moored instruments, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1982, 10.1029/2003GL018119 Wong, 2001, Freshwater and heat changes in the North and South Pacific Oceans between the 1960s and 1985, Journal of Climate, 14, 1613, 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1613:FAHCIT>2.0.CO;2 Woodgate, 2005, Revising the Bering Strait freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L02602, 10.1029/2004GL021747 Wu, P., Wood, R., submitted for publication. Convection-induced long term freshening of the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate. Wu, 2004, Does the recent freshening trend in the North Atlantic indicate a weakening thermohaline circulation?, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L02301, 10.1029/2003GL018584 Wu, 2005, Human influence on increasing Arctic river discharges, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L02703, 10.1029/2004GL021570 Zhang, 2003, Arctic sea ice and freshwater changes driven by the atmospheric leading mode in a coupled sea ice-ocean model, Journal of Climate, 16, 2159, 10.1175/2758.1 Zweng, 2006, Warming and freshening of Baffin Bay, 1916–2003, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 36, 2025