Contested Modelling: a Critical Examination of Expert Modelling in Sustainability

Systems Research and Behavioral Science - Tập 33 Số 1 - Trang 45-63 - 2016
Mike Yearworth1, Sarah Cornell2
1University of Bristol, Systems Centre, Faculty of Engineering, Bristol, UK
2Planetary Boundaries Research Laboratory, Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

Tóm tắt

We discuss the role of expert modelling in sustainability using a framework designed to improve the effectiveness of the modelling process. Based on the development of a set of reflective questions that can be used at certain key stages in the lifecycle of projects developing such models, we discuss how using the framework would lead to improvements in the coupling of the process of expert modelling with the process of intervention, which is implied by the existence of the expert modelling project. This questioning pushes the development of a framework beyond considerations of ontology and epistemology into issues of axiology and praxis; extending the notion of contested modelling beyond the narrow scientific sense to a wider social setting. Our framework has been developed through a case study analysis of the effectiveness of four research initiatives that have used expert modelling to address the complexity of intervention in a sustainability context. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1109/jsyst.2009.2032992

Ait‐Sahalia Y, 2010, Handbook of financial econometrics

10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.015

10.1002/sres.1111

10.1177/089443902237317

10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199623)12:3<183::AID-SDR103>3.0.CO;2-4

10.1098/rsta.2010.0193

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.010

10.1098/rspa.2002.0986

Box GEP, 1987, Empirical model‐building and response surfaces

Boyd R, 2005, The origin and evolution of cultures, 375, 10.1093/oso/9780195165241.001.0001

10.1098/rstb.2007.2061

Buckingham Shum SJ, 2006, Rationale Management in Software Engineering

Burrell G, 1979, Sociological paradigms and organisational analysis: elements of the sociology of corporate life

Checkland P, 2004, Systems Modelling: Theory and Practice

Conklin J, 2003, Visualizing Argumentation

CONVERGE Project Team.2009.Description of Work Project No. 227030. FP7 Approval 7 July 2009.

Cornell S, 2010, Integrated Socio‐ecological History: Could Looking at the Past Help Direct Society's Future?, International Journal of Interdisciplinary Social Sciences, 5, 139

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.01.005

10.1017/CBO9780511921155

Costanza R, 2006, Sustainability or collapse? An integrated history and future of people on Earth. Dahlem Workshop Reports, 10.7551/mitpress/6572.001.0001

10.1016/j.cosust.2012.01.010

De LiddoA Buckingham ShumS.2010.Cohere: A Prototype for Contested Collective Intelligence. Paper presented at the Workshop on Collective Intelligence In Organizations: Toward a Research Agenda. ACM Conference on Computer‐Supported Cooperative Work Savannah GA USA.

10.5751/ES-03645-150421

10.1080/13698570701306930

Epstein JM, 2006, Generative social science: studies in agent‐based computational modeling

10.1080/0022250X.1999.9990228

FortnamM CornellS ParkerJ CONVERGE Project Team.2010.Convergence: how can it be part of the pathway to sustainability?CONVERGE Discussion Papers.Retrieved 28th May 2012 fromhttp://goo.gl/sV3dB

10.1016/j.respol.2010.01.022

Gilbert GN, 2005, Simulation for the social scientist

Gilbert N, 2009, Epistemological Aspects of Computer Simulation in the Social Sciences ‐ Second International Workshop, EPOS 2006, 12

Habermas J, 1986, The Theory of Communicative Action: Reason and the Rationalization of Society

10.18564/jasss.2305

10.3920/978-90-8686-757-8_21

10.1016/s0951‐8320(96)00066‐x

HibbardKA CostanzaR CrumleyC et al.2010.Developing an Integrated History and Future of People on Earth (IHOPE): Research ProspectusIGBP Report No. 59. Stockholm Sweden.

IPCC, 2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10.1057/jors.1993.42

Jackson MC, 2000, A Systems Approach to Management

Jackson MC, 2003, Systems thinking: creative holism for managers

10.1057/jors.1984.101

10.1007/s00442‐011‐2106‐x

10.1111/j.1933-1592.2003.tb00281.x

KocaD SverdrupH CONVERGE Project Team.2010.Analytical report of existing sustainable development indicator frameworks: Applied Systems Analysis and System Dynamics Group Department of Chemical Engineering University of Lund.

KristinsdóttirS RagnarsdóttirKV DavíðsdóttirB SverdrupH CONVERGE Project Team.2011.Framework for Convergence – Draft: Environment and Natural Resources University of Iceland; Chemical Engineering University of Lund.

Lemmen C, 2014, Ester Boserup's Legacy on Sustainability

Lorenz T, 2009, Epistemological Aspects of Computer Simulation in the Social Sciences ‐ Second International Workshop, EPOS 2006, 141

Luhmann N, 1995, Social systems

Macho‐Stadler I, 2001, An introduction to the economics of information: incentives and contracts, 10.1093/oso/9780199243273.001.0001

10.1177/1075547005281531

Meyer A, 2000, Contraction and Convergence: the global solution to climate change

10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601436

10.1016/s0305‐0483(97)00018‐2

10.1680/cien.11.00062

10.1057/jors.2013.78

PearceO MurryN.2010.Effective management of sustainability: Sustainability toolkit and rating system. Retrieved 28th May 2012 fromhttp://goo.gl/ZwMfB.

10.1680/ensu.9.00064

10.1007/s11213‐009‐9141‐0

10.1086/230316

10.7208/chicago/9780226668253.001.0001

Pidd M, 2004, Systems Modelling: Theory and Practice

10.1023/a:1022964905762

10.1332/030557306775212188

SchienD PreistCW YearworthM ShabajeeP.2012.Impact of Geographic Location on the Energy Footprint of ICT Services. Paper presented at the IEEE International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology (IEEE ISSST 2012).

10.1111/jiec.12065

Senge P, 2005, Presence: exploring profound change in people, organizations, and society

10.1177/0022009411403298

10.1126/science.1191181

10.1098/rsta.2007.2074

10.1002/sdr.261

10.1086/367872

10.1353/ken.2012.0008

10.1016/j.ejor.2014.02.015

YearworthM SchienD PreistC ShabajeeP.2011.Systems Modelling of New Media Services. Paper presented at the 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Washington DC USA.http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2011/proceed/papers/P1040.pdf

10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2008.08.003