Thay đổi khí hậu và những rủi ro tiềm năng trong tương lai do bệnh trên lúa mì: một bài tổng quan

Asseng, S., Foster, I., & Turner, N. (2011). The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Global Change Biology, 17, 997–1012. Baker, R. H. A., Sansford, C. E., Jarvis, C. H., Cannon, R. J. C., MacLeod, A., & Walters, K. F. A. (2000). The role of climatic mapping in predicting the potential geographical distribution of non-indigenous pests under current and future climates. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 82, 57–71. Barnes, A. P., Wreford, A., Butterworth, M. H., Semenov, M. A., Moran, D., Evans, N., et al. (2010). Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 148, 683–694. Bender, J., & Weigel, H. J. (2011). Changes in atmospheric chemistry and crop health: a review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 31, 81–89. Bockus, W. W., Bowden, R. L., Hunger, R. M., Morrill, W. C., Murray, T. D., & Smiley, R. W. (2010). Compendium of wheat diseases and pests. St. Paul: APS Press. Boland, G. J., Melzer, M. S., Hopkin, A., Higgins, V., & Nassuth, A. (2004). Climate change and plant diseases in Ontario. Canadian Journal of Plant Pathology, 26, 335–350. Boonekamp, P. M. (2012). Are plant diseases too much ignored in the climate change debate? European Journal of Plant Pathology, 133, 291–294. Butterworth, M. H., Semenov, M. A., Barnes, A., Moran, D., West, J. S., & Fitt, B. D. L. (2010). North–south divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 7, 123–130. Caubel, J., Launay, M., Lannou, C., & Brisson, N. (2012). Generic response functions to simulate climate-based processes in models for the development of airborne fungal crop pathogens. Ecological Modelling, 242, 92–104. Ceglar, A., & Kajfez-Bogataj, L. (2012). Simulation of maize yield in current and changed climatic conditions: addressing modelling uncertainties and the importance of bias correction in climate model simulation. European Journal of Agronomy, 37, 83–95. Chakraborty, S., Luck, J., Hollaway, G., Fitzgerald, G., & White, N. (2011). Rust-proofing wheat for a changing climate. Euphytica, 179, 19–32. Chakraborty, S., Luck, J., Hollaway, G., Freeman, A., Norton, R., Garrett, K. A., et al. (2008). Impacts of global change on diseases of agricultural crops and forest trees. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources, 3(054), 1–15. Chakraborty, S., Murray, G. M., Magarey, P. A., Yonow, T., O’Brien, R. G., Croft, B. J., et al. (1998). Potential impact of climate change on plant diseases of economic significance to Australia. Australasian Plant Pathology, 27, 15–35. Chakraborty, S., & Newton, A. C. (2011). Climate change, plant diseases and food security: an overview. Plant Pathology, 60, 2–14. Chakraborty, S., von Tiedemann, A., & Teng, P. S. (2000). Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases. Environmental Pollution, 108, 317–326. Chancellor, T., & Kubiriba, J. (2006). The effects of climate change on infectious diseases of plants. Foresight project ‘Infectious diseases: preparing for the future’. Department of Trade and Industry, UK Government. Chmielewski, F. M., Müller, A., & Bruns, E. (2004). Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961–2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 121, 69–78. Coakley, S. M., Scherm, H., & Chakraborty, S. (1999). Climate change and plant disease management. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 37, 399–426. Dumalasova, V., & Bartos, P. (2009). Will climatic changes enhance the risk of Tilletia indica in Europe? Plant Protection Science, 45(Special Issue), S38–S40. Duveiller, E., Singh, R. P., & Nicol, J. M. (2007). The challenges of maintaining wheat productivity: pests, diseases, and potential epidemics. Euphytica, 157, 417–430. Eastburn, D. M., McElrone, A. J., & Bilgin, D. D. (2011). Influence of atmospheric and climatic change on plant-pathogen interactions. Plant Pathology, 60, 54–69. Evans, N., Butterworth, M. H., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., West, J. S., Barnes, A., et al. (2010). The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Security, 2, 143–156. Ewert, F. (2012). Adaptation: opportunities in climate change? Nature Climate Change, 2, 153–154. Ewert, F., van Oijen, M., & Porter, J. R. (1999). Simulation of growth and development processes of spring wheat in response to CO2 and ozone for different sites and years in Europe using mechanistic crop simulation models. European Journal of Agronomy, 10, 231–247. FAO. (2012). Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, FAOSTAT, FAO Statistics Division http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/default.aspx#ancor. Fernandes, J. M., Cunha, G. R., Del Ponte, E., Pavan, W., Pires, J. L., Baethgen, W., et al. (2004). Modeling fusarium ear blight in wheat under climate change using linked process-based models. Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Fusarium Head Blight, incorporating the 8th European Fusarium Seminar, 11–15 December 2004, Orlando, pp. 441–443. Fitt, B. D. L., Fraaije, B. A., Chandramohan, P., & Shaw, M. W. (2011). Impacts of changing air composition on severity of arable crop diseases. Plant Pathology, 60, 44–53. Fuhrer, J. (2006). Agricultural systems: sensitivity to climate change. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources, 1, article number 052, doi:10.1079/PAVSNNR20061052. Garrett, K. A., Dendy, S. P., Frank, E. E., Rouse, M. N., & Travers, S. E. (2006). Climate change effects on plant disease: genomes to ecosystems. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 44, 489–509. Garrett, K.A., Dobson, A.D.M., Kroschel, J., Natarajan, B., Orlandini, S., Tonnang, H.E.Z., Valdivia, C. (2012). The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, in press, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.018. Garrett, K. A., Forbes, G. A., Savary, S., Skelsey, P., Sparks, A. H., Valdivia, C., et al. (2011). Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease. Plant Pathology, 60, 15–30. Ghini, R., Hamada, E., Angelotti, F., Costa, L. B., & Bettiol, W. (2012). Research approaches, adaptation strategies, and knowledge gaps concerning the impacts of climate change on plant diseases. Tropical Plant Pathology, 37, 5–24. Gornall, J., Betts, R., Burke, E., Clark, R., Camp, J., Willett, K., et al. (2010). Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 365, 2973–2989. Gouache, D., Bensadoun, A., Brun, F., Page, C., Makowski, D., & Wallach, D. (2012). Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: accounting for climate model and disease uncertainty. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.019. in press. Gouache, D., Roche, R., Pieri, P., & Bancal, M.-O. (2011). Evolution of some pathosystems on wheat and vines. In N. Brisson, & F. Levrault (Eds.), Climate change, agriculture and forests in France: simulations of the impacts on the main species. The Green Book of the CLIMATOR project (2007–2010), part C (The crops), section B5 Health (pp. 113–126). ADEME. Gregory, P. J., Johnson, S. N., Newton, A. C., & Ingram, J. S. I. (2009). Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate. Journal of Experimental Botany, 60, 2827–2838. Hakala, K., Hannukkala, A. O., Huusela-Veistola, E., Jalli, M., & Peltonen-Sainio, P. (2011). Pests and diseases in a changing climate: a major challenge for Finish crop production. Agricultural and Food Science, 20, 3–14. Jeger, M. J., & Pautasso, M. (2008). Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist, 177, 8–11. Juroszek, P., & von Tiedemann, A. (2011). Potential strategies and future requirements for plant disease management under a changing climate. Plant Pathology, 60, 100–112. Juroszek, P., & von Tiedemann, A. (2012). Plant diseases, insect pests and weeds in a changing global climate: a review of approaches, challenges, research gaps, key studies and concepts. Journal of Agricultural Science. doi:10.1017/S0021859612000500. in press. Kaur, S., Dhaliwal, L., & Kaur, P. (2008). Impact of climate change on wheat disease scenario in Punjab. Journal of Research, 45, 161–170. Lal, M., Singh, K. K., Rathore, L. S., Srinivasan, G., & Saseendran, S. A. (1998). Vulnerability of rice and wheat yields in NW India to future changes in climate. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 89, 101–114. Legreve, A., & Duveiller, E. (2010). Preventing potential diseases and pest epidemics under a changing climate. In M. P. Reynolds (Ed.), Climate change and crop production (pp. 50–70). Wallingford: CABI. Lobell, D. B., & Burke, M. B. (2008). Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation. Environmental Research Letters, 3, 034007. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034007. Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011). Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333, 616–620. Luck, J., Spackman, M., Freeman, A., Trebicki, P., Griffiths, W., Finlay, K., et al. (2011). Climate change and diseases in food crops. Plant Pathology, 60, 113–121. Madgwick, J. W., West, J. S., White, R. P., Semenov, M. A., Townsend, J. A., Turner, J. A., et al. (2011). Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 130, 117–131. Magan, N., Medina, A., & Aldred, D. (2011). Possible climate-change effects on mycotoxin contamination of food crops pre- and postharvest. Plant Pathology, 60, 150–163. Manning, W. J., & von Tiedemann, A. (1995). Climate change: potential effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation on plant diseases. Environmental Pollution, 88, 219–245. Mboup, M., Bahri, B., Leconte, M., De Vallavieille-Pope, C., Kaltz, O., & Enjalbert, J. (2012). Genetic structure and local adaptation of European wheat yellow rust populations: the role of temperature-specific adaptation. Evolutionary Applications, 5, 341–352. Melloy, P., Hollaway, G., Luck, J., Norton, R., Aitken, E., & Chakraborty, S. (2010). Production and fitness of Fusarium pseudograminearum inoculum at elevated carbon dioxide in FACE. Global Change Biology, 16, 3363–3373. Miglietta, F., Tanasescu, M., & Marcia, A. (1995). The expected effects of climate change on wheat development. Global Change Biology, 1, 407–415. Milus, E. A., Kristensen, K., & Hovmoller, M. S. (2009). Evidence for increased aggressiveness in a recent widespread strain of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici causing stripe rust of wheat. Phytopathology, 99, 89–94. Oerke, E. C. (2006). Crop losses to pests. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 144, 31–43. Ortiz, R., Sayre, K. D., Govaerts, B., Gupta, R., Subbarao, G. V., Ban, T., et al. (2008). Climate change: can wheat beat the heat? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 126, 46–58. Pangga, I. B., Hanan, J., & Chakraborty, S. (2011). Pathogen dynamics in a crop canopy and their evolution under changing climate. Plant Pathology, 60, 70–81. Pangga, I. B., Hanan, J., & Chakraborty, S. (2012). Climate change impacts on plant canopy architecture: implications for pest and pathogen management. European Journal of Plant Pathology. doi:10.1017/s10658-012-0118-y. in press. Parikka, P., Hakala, K., & Tiilikkala, K. (2012). Expected shifts in Fusarium species’ composition on cereal grain in Northern Europe due to climatic change. Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A, 29, 1543–1555. Paterson, R. R. M., & Lima, N. (2010). How will climate change affect mycotoxins in food? Food Research International, 43, 1902–1914. Pautasso, M., Döring, T. F., Garbelotto, M., Pellis, L., & Jeger, M. J. (2012). Impacts of climate change on plant diseases - opinions and trends. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 133, 295–313. Pettitt, T. R., & Parry, D. W. (1996). Effects of climate change on Fusarium foot rot of winter wheat in the United Kingdom. In J. C. Frankland, N. Magan, & G. M. Gadd (Eds.), Fungi and environmental change (pp. 20–31). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Racca, P., Richerzhagen, D., Kuhn, C., Kleinhenz, B., & Hau, B. (2012). Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Ontogenese und die Blattkrankheiten Mehltau (Blumeria graminis), Braunrost (Puccinia triticina) und DTR (Drechslera tritici-repentis) in Winterweizen in Niedersachsen. Julius-Kühn Archiv, 438, 135–136. In German. Richerzhagen, D., Racca, P., Zeuner, T., Kuhn, C., Falke, K., Kleinhenz, B., et al. (2011). Impact of climate change on the temporal and regional occurence of Cercospora leaf spot in Lower Saxony. Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection, 118, 168–177. Roos, J., Hopkins, R., Kvarnheden, A., & Dixelius, C. (2011). The impact of global warming on plant diseases and insect vectors in Sweden. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 129, 9–19. Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Yang, X. B., Epstein, P. R., & Chivian, E. (2001). Climate change and extreme weather events: implications for food production, plant disease, and pests. Global Change & Human Health, 2, 90–104. Savary, S., Nelson, A., Sparks, A. H., Willocquet, L., Duveiller, E., Mahuku, G., et al. (2011). International Agricultural Research tackling the effects of global and climate changes on plant diseases in the developing world. Plant Disease, 95, 1204–1216. Scherm, H., & Coakley, S. M. (2003). Plant pathogens in a changing world. Australasian Plant Pathology, 32, 157–165. Sharma, R. C., Duveiller, E., & Ortiz-Ferrara, G. (2007). Progress and challenge towards reducing wheat spot blotch threat in the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia: is climate change already taking its toll? Field Crops Research, 103, 109–118. Shaw, M. W. (2009). Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change. Plant Protection Science, 45(Special Issue), S3–S10. Shaw, M. W., Bearchell, S. J., Fitt, B. D. L., & Fraaije, B. A. (2008). Long-term relationships between environment and abundance in wheat of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola. New Phytologist, 177, 229–238. Siebold, M., & von Tiedemann, A. (2012a). Potential effects of global warming on oilseed rape pathogens in Northern Germany. Fungal Ecology, 5, 62–72. Siebold, M., & von Tiedemann, A. (2012b). Application of a robust experimental method to study soil warming effects on oilseed rape. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 164, 20–28. Sutherst, R. W., Constable, F., Finlay, K. J., Harrington, R., Luck, J., & Zalucki, M. P. (2011). Adapting to crop pest and pathogen risks under a changing climate. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 2, 220–237. Toure, A., Major, D. J., & Lindwall, C. W. (1995). Sensitivity of four wheat simulation models to climate change. Canadian Journal of Plant Science, 75, 69–74. United Nations. (2011). World population prospects: The 2010 revision. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Analytical-Figures/htm/fig_1.htm. Van der Fels-Klerx, H. J., Goedhart, P. W., Elen, O., Börjesson, T., Hietaniemi, V., & Booij, C. J. H. (2012). Modeling deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in northwestern Europe for climate change assessments. Journal of Food Protection, 75, 1099–1106. Volk, T., Epke, K., Gerstner, V., Leuthner, C., Rotterdam, A., Johnen, A., et al. (2010). Klimawandel in Nordrhein-Westfalen – Auswirkungen auf Schädlinge und Pilzkrankheiten wichtiger Ackerbaukulturen. Münster: proPlant GmbH. In German. http://www.proplant.de/data/2010/2010_12_Volk-Richthofen-Johnen_Abschlussbericht-Klimawandel-und-Pflanzenschutz_proPlant.pdf. Accessed 24 Oct 2012. von Tiedemann, A. (1996). Global atmospheric and climatic change – what are the implications for plant protection? Nachrichtenblatt Deutscher Pflanzenschutzdienst, 48, 73–79. In German with English abstract. West, J. S., Holdgate, S., Townsend, J. A., Edwards, S. G., Jennings, P., & Fitt, B. D. L. (2012). Impacts of changing climate and agronomic factors on fusarium ear blight of wheat in the UK. Fungal Ecology, 5, 53–61. West, J. S., Townsend, J. A., Stevens, M., & Fitt, B. D. L. (2012). Comparative biology of different plant pathogens to estimate effects of climate change on crop diseases in Europe. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 133, 315–331. White, J. W., Hoogenboom, G., Kimball, B. A., & Wall, G. W. (2011). Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production. Field Crops Research, 124, 357–368.