A generic nomogram for multinomial prediction models: theory and guidance for construction

Diagnostic and Prognostic Research - Tập 1 - Trang 1-7 - 2017
Maarten van Smeden1, Joris AH de Groot1, Stavros Nikolakopoulos1, Loes CM Bertens2, Karel GM Moons1, Johannes B. Reitsma1
1Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan, Utrecht, Netherlands
2Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Tóm tắt

The use of multinomial logistic regression models is advocated for modeling the associations of covariates with three or more mutually exclusive outcome categories. As compared to a binary logistic regression analysis, the simultaneous modeling of multiple outcome categories using a multinomial model often better resembles the clinical setting, where a physician typically must distinguish between more than two possible diagnoses or outcome events for an individual patient (e.g., the differential diagnosis). A disadvantage of the multinomial logistic model is that the interpretation of its results is often complex. In particular, the calculation of predicted probabilities for the various outcomes requires a series of careful calculations. Nomograms are widely used in studies reporting binary logistic regression models to facilitate the interpretation of the results and allow the calculation of the predicted probability for individuals. In this paper we outline an approach for deriving a generic nomogram for multinomial logistic regression models and an accompanying scoring chart that can further simplify the calculation of predicted multinomial probabilities. We illustrate the use of the nomogram and scoring chart and their interpretation using a clinical example. The generic multinomial nomogram and scoring chart can be used irrespective of the number of outcome categories that are present.

Tài liệu tham khảo

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