A Long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka Island arc for the period 2006–2011 and a successful forecast of the MS = 8.2 middle kuril earthquake of November 15, 2006
Tóm tắt
Results are reported from continuous long-term earthquake prediction work for the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc using the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. A five-year forecast (April 2006 to April 2011) for all portions of the Kuril-Kamchatka seismogenic zone is presented. According to this, the most likely locations of future M ≥ 7.7 earthquakes include the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii area where the probability of an M ≥ 7.7 earthquake causing ground motions of intensity VII to IX in the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii is 48% for 2006–2011, and the area of Onekotan I. and the Middle Kuril Islands where the probability of an M ≥ 7.7 earthquake was estimated as 26.7%. The forecast was fulfilled on November 15, 2006, when an Ms= 8.2, Mw = 8.3 earthquake occurred in the Middle Kuril Islands area. An updated long-term forecast is presented for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from November 2006 to October 2011. These forecasts provide good reasons to enhance seismic safety by strengthening buildings and structures in Kamchatka.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Atlas zemletryasenii v SSSR. Rezul’taty nablyudenii seti seismicheskikh stantsii SSSR v 1911–1957 gg. (An Atlas of Earthquakes in the USSR. Results from Observations by the USSR Seismographic Network in 1911–1957), Moscow: Izd. AN SSSR, 1962.
Keilis-Borok, V.I. and Kosobokov, V.G., Periods of High Probability of Occurrence of the World’s Strongest Earthquakes, in Mathematical Methods in Seismology and Geodynamics, New York: Allerton Press Inc., 1987, pp. 45–53.
Matvienko, Yu.D., The Application of the M8 Method to Kamchatka: a Successful Advance Forecast of the December 5, 1997, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1998, no. 6, pp. 27–36.
Novyi katalog sil’nykh zemletryasenii na territorii SSSR s drevneishikh vremen do 1975 g. (A New Catalog of Large Earthquakes in the USSR Area from Earliest Times Until 1975), Moscow: Nauka, 1977.
Reisner, G.I. and Rogozhin, E.A., The Seismotectonics and Geodynamics of Transition Zones: the Kuril Region, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2003, no. 1, pp. 42–53.
Smirnov, N.V. and Dunin-Barkovskii, I.V., Kurs teorii veroyatnostei i matematicheskoi statistiki (A Course in Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics), Moscow: Nauka, 1965.
Sobolev, G.A. and Ponomarev, A.V., Fizika zemletryasenii i predvestniki (Earthquake Physics and Precursors), Moscow: Nauka, 2003.
Tarakanov, R.Z., Levyi, N.V., and Kim, Ch.U., The Seismicity of the Kuril Region, in Seismicheskoe raionirovanie Kuril’skikh ostrovov, Primor’ya i Priamur’ya (Seismic Zonation of the Kuril Islands, Maritime Territory, and the Amur River Area), Vladivostok: 1977, pp. 27–35.
Fedotov, S.A., On Patterns Observed in the Locations of Large Earthquakes in Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands, and Northeastern Japan, Trudy IFZ AN SSSR, 1965, no. 36, pp. 66–93.
Fedotov, S.A., On the Seismic Cycle, Possibilities of Quantitative Seismic Zonation, and Long-term Earthquake Prediction, in Seismicheskoe raionirovanie SSSR (Seismic Zonation of the USSR), Moscow: Nauka, 1968, pp. 121–150.
Fedotov, S.A. Energeticheskaya klassifikatsiya Kurilo-Kamchatskikh zemletryasenii i problema magnitud (The Energy Classification of Kuril-Kamchatka Earthquakes and the Magnitude Problem), Moscow: Nauka, 1972.
Fedotov, S.A., Dolgosrochnyi seismicheskii prognoz dlya Kurilo-Kamchatskoi dugi (The Long-term Earthquake Prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc), Moscow: Nauka, 2005.
Fedotov, S.A., Potapova, O.V., Chernysheva, G.V., and Shumilina, L.S. Hazards from M ≥ 6 Aftershocks of Great Earthquakes (M ≥ 7.7) in the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan Island Arcs, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1998, no. 1, pp. 54–61 (also available in Volcanology and Seismology, Gordon and Breach, cover-to-cover translation, 1998, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 93–109).
Fedotov, S.A., Solomatin, A.V., and Chernyshev, S.D., Long-term Earthquake Forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc for 2004–2008 and a Retrospective Forecast of the M = 8.1 September 25, 2003, Hokkaido Earthquake, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2004, no. 5, pp. 3–32.
Fedotov, S.A. and Chernyshev, S.D., Twenty Years of Long-term Earthquake Prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc: the Reliability in 1981–1985, in 1965–1985 Overall, and the Forecast for 1986–1990, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1987, no. 6, pp. 93–109.
Fedotov, S.A. and Chernyshev, S.D., Long-term Earthquake Prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc: Reliability in 1986–2000, the Development of the Method, and the Forecast for 2001–2005, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2002, no. 6, pp. 3–24.
Fedotov, S.A., Chernyshev, S.D., Matvienko, Yu.D., and Zharinov, N.A., The Forecast of the December 5, 1997, Magnitude 7.8–7.9 Kronotskii Earthquake, Kamchatka, and Its M ≥ 6 Aftershocks, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1998, no. 6, pp. 3–16 (Also available in Volcanology and Seismology, Gordon and Breach, cover-to-cover translation, 1999, vol. 20, no. 6, pp. 597–613).
Fedotov, S.A., Chernyshev, S.D., Chernysheva, G.V., and Vikulin, A.V., Refining the Boundaries of the M ≥ 7 3/4 Earthquake Source Areas, the Properties of the Seismic Cycle, and the Long-term Earthquake Forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1980, no. 6, pp. 52–67.
Fedotov, S.A., Chernysheva, G.V., and Shumilina, L.S., Sequence of M ≥ 6 Foreshocks and Aftershocks of Large Pacific Earthquakes (M = 8) and Its Danger, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1993, no. 6, pp. 3–12 (Also available in Volcanology and Seismology, Gordon and Breach, cover-to-cover translation, 1994, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 637–648).
Fedotov, S.A., Shumilina, L.S., Chernysheva, G.V., and Potapova, O.V., The Long-term Forecast and the Source Evolution of the October 4, 1994 Shikotan Earthquake, Federal’naya sluzhba seismologicheskikh nablyudenii i prognoza zemletryasenii. Informatsionno-analiticheskii byulleten’. Ekstrennyi vypusk, Moscow, FSSNPZ, 1994, pp. 56–67.
Fedotov, S.A. and Chernyshev, S.D., Twenty Years of Long-Term Seismic Prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc: Reliability in 1981–1985, 1965–1985 and Prediction for 1986–1992, Volcanology and Seismology, Gordon and Breach, cover-to-cover translation, 1990, vol. 9, no. 6, pp. 956–981.
Fedotov, S.A., Potapova, O.V., Chernysheva, G.V., and Shumilina, L.S., Hazards from M ≥ 6 Aftershocks of Great Earthquakes (M ≥ 7.7) in the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan Island Arcs, Volcanology and Seismology, Gordon and Breach, cover-to-cover translation, 1998, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 65–72.
Fedotov, S.A., Chernyshev, S.D., Matvienko, Yu.D., and Zharinov, N.A., The Forecast of the December 5, 1997, Magnitude 7.8–7.9 Kronotskii Earthquake, Kamchatka, and Its M ≥ 6 Aftershocks, Volcanology and Seismology, Gordon and Breach, cover-to-cover translation, 1999, vol. 20, no. 6, pp. 597–613.
Fedotov, S.A., Chernysheva, G.V., and Shumilina, L.S., Sequence of M ≥ 6 Foreshocks and Aftershocks of Large Pacific Earthquakes (M = 8) and Its Danger, Volcanology and Seismology, Gordon and Breach, cover-to-cover translation, 1994, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 637–648.
Fedotov, S.A., Chernyshev, S.D., and Chernysheva, G.V., The Improved Determination of the Source Boundaries for Earthquakes of M ≥ 7 3/4, of Properties of Seismic Cycle, and of Long-Term Seismic Prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc, Earthquake Prediction Research, 1982, vol. 1, pp. 153–171.