The stability and breakup of nations: a quantitative analysis

Journal of Economic Growth - Tập 16 - Trang 183-213 - 2011
Klaus Desmet1,2, Michel Le Breton3, Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín1, Shlomo Weber2,4,5
1Universidad Carlos III, Getafe, Spain
2CEPR, London, UK
3Toulouse School of Economics, Toulouse, France
4Southern Methodist University, Dallas USA
5New Economic School, Moscow, Russia

Tóm tắt

This paper quantitatively analyzes the stability and breakup of nations. The tradeoff between increasing returns in the provision of public goods and the costs of greater cultural heterogeneity mediates agents’ preferences over different geographical configurations, thus determining the likelihood of secessions and unions. After calibrating the model to Europe, we identify the regions prone to secession and the countries most likely to merge. We then estimate the implied monetary gains from EU membership. As a test of the theory, we show that the model can account for the breakup of Yugoslavia and the dynamics of its disintegration. We find that economic differences between the Yugoslav republics determined the order of disintegration, but cultural differences, though small, were key to the country’s instability. The paper also provides empirical support for the use of genetic distances as a proxy for cultural heterogeneity.

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Journal of Economic Growth

Tập 16

183-213

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