Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Les fondements idéologiques de la prévision démographique seront posés à la fin du XVIIème siècle selon trois grands axes: l'optimisme religieux, qui table sur un accroissement indéfini et bénéfique de la population; l'apocalyptisme pré-malthusien, selon lequel seuls de puissants obstacles positifs peuvent freiner le débordement démographique; et enfin le stationnarisme d'origine philosophique. L'histoire de la prévision démographique se rattachera donc d'une part à celle des cycles et de l'Eternel Retour, de l'autre à l'idée de progrès et de croissance linéaire. Au XVIIIème siècle, les démographes européens se situeront dans la lignée des trois pères de la prévision: dans celle de Graunt, ils perfectionneront la table de mortalité; dans celle de Vauban, ils tenteront d'évaluer la population maximale ou optimale; dans celle de Petty, ils se livreront au calcul du temps de doublement de la population. Le XVIIème siècle verra naître le calcul des probabilités, et le XVIIIème s'amplifier la controverse sur la dépopulation qui fournira le cadre préférentiel de la prévision démographique. A l'époque des Lumières, les savants éprouveront sans doute des difficultés à se débarrasser de tout présupposé idéologique, mais, en dépit de leur technique limitée, ils ont fait irrésistiblement progresser la science.

Employment, union formation and childbearing are central processes within young individuals’ transition to adulthood. These processes interact in highly complex ways, and they shape actual life-course trajectories that may be seen as a conceptual unit. In this article we use a methodology to cluster life-course experiences, where all three processes are embedded explicitly, in order to study young women’s trajectories in Great Britain. Drawing on a sample from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), we define life-courses as sequences on a monthly time scale and we apply optimal matching analysis to compute dissimilarities between individuals. We then use standard clustering algorithms and we identify nine distinctive groups of women. Our results are then shown using a new representation of clusters and interpreted in the light of the existing socio-demographic literature on the dynamic work-family link.

Data from the OPCS Longitudinal Study is used to examine the social mobility of ‘immigrants’ in England and Wales between 1971 and 1981. Three issues are raised: (i) in what respects and to what degree do ‘immigrants’ differ in their social mobility characteristics from the norm set by the population as a whole?; (ii) in what respects and to what degree do ‘immigrants’ differ amongst themselves in their social mobility characteristics according to their country of origin?; and (iii) how do ‘second-generation immigrants’ and recently-arrived immigrants differ in their social class locations from those who have been in the British labour market for a considerable length of time?

The theoretically well-grounded hypothesis that the availability of formal childcare has a positive impact on childbearing in the developed world has been part of the population literature for a long time. Whereas the participation of women in the labour force created a tension between work and family life, the increasing availability of formal childcare in many developed countries is assumed to reconcile these two life domains due to lower opportunity costs and compatible mother and worker roles. However, previous empirical studies on the association between childcare availability and fertility exhibit ambiguous results and considerable variation in the methods applied. This study assesses the childcare–fertility hypothesis for Belgium, a consistently top-ranked country concerning formal childcare coverage that also exhibits considerable variation within the country. Using detailed longitudinal census and register data for the 2000s combined with childcare coverage rates for 588 municipalities and allowing for the endogenous nature of formal childcare and selective migration, our findings indicate clear and substantial positive effects of local formal childcare provision on birth hazards, especially when considering the transition to parenthood. In addition, this article quantifies the impact of local formal childcare availability on fertility at the aggregate level and shows that in the context of low and lowest-low fertility levels in the developed world, the continued extension of formal childcare services can be a fruitful tool to stimulate childbearing among dual-earner couples.

Collecting life course data is increasingly common in social and epidemiological research, either through record linkage of administrative data or by collecting retrospective interview data. This paper uses data on employment histories collected through both strategies, compares the attained samples, and investigates levels of agreements of individual histories. We use data from the German Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study with information on employment histories collected retrospectively from 2011 until 2014 (N = 3059). Administrative data from the German Institute for Employment Research (IAB) were linked to the survey data. After comparing respondents who provide self-reported histories with the subsample of the ones for which administrative data were available, we investigate the agreement of individual employment histories from the two sources (between 1975 and 2010) using sequence analyses. Almost all participants provided survey data on employment histories (97% of the sample), linkage consent was given by 93%, and administrative data were available for 63% of the participants. People with survey data were more likely to be female, to have a higher education, and to work self-employed and in the tertiary sector. The agreement of individual employment histories is high and similar across time, with a median level of agreement of 89%. Slightly lower values exist for women and people working in the tertiary sector, both having more complex histories. No differences exist for health-related factors. In conclusion, it is likely that missing consent and failed record linkage lead to sample differences; yet, both strategies provide comparable and reliable life course data.

Other comparative studies had offered classifications and grouping of countries in the field of fertility and employment activity, and of family and labour market structures, but none was based upon individual retrospective comparative data. We have here described a comprehensive picture of the situation of European women when they at a point in their life course had to deal with the problematic task of combining employment and motherhood. To do so we based our analysis on a new set of data. In October 1990, a specifically designed section of the Eurobarometer survey collected information on the relationship between activity and fertility in all the member States of the European Community which allowed us to obtain longitudinal strictly comparable data for the 12 EC countries. From this description arise obvious associations of countries which contribute a geographical divide of Europe along a North/South split. The factor analysis conducted here is based on career description indicators, measuring a more complete aspect of female work, from initial entry into the labour force to the type of disruption family constitution imposed on employment. Analysis of the different factors and of their consequences in terms of continuity or discontinuity of employment does not support previous assumptions about “traditional” and “modern” societies. On the contrary Northern Europe, as identified in this study does not appear to offer the most favorable environment for women to combine motherhood and career. Intermediate countries Denmark, Belgium and France appear to offer different solutions (either long paid parental leave or widespread subsidized or free child-care facilities) pertaining to both cultural areas and therefore of great interest for future European issues and policies regarding fertility and female activity.

This article attempts a description of the fertility and nuptiality patterns of a group of selected localities in Catalonia from the late eighteenth century to the mid-nineteenth century. The pattern of fertility transition in Catalonia can be described as starting from nuptiality conditions of early and quasi-universal marriage. The pattern of nuptiality is preserved throughout the process in its essentials. The transition, then, was largely limited to a decline in marital fertility. The evidence suggests an onset occurring in the 1830s, closer to the French experience than to that of any other Western European country. Finally, the analysis of the 84 local areas supports the proposition that structural factors had a significant effect on both the mid-nineteenth century level of marital fertility and the rate of decline during the 70-year period under study.