Journal of Quantitative Criminology

This study aims to test whether the home location has a causal effect on the crime location. To accomplish this the study capitalizes on the natural experiment that occurs when offender’s move, and uses a unique metric, the distance between sequential offenses, to determine if when an offender moves the offense location changes. Using a sample of over 40,000 custodial arrests from Syracuse, NY between 2003 and 2008, this quasi-experimental design uses t test’s of mean differences, and fixed effects regression modeling to determine if moving has a significant effect on the distance between sequential offenses. This study finds that when offenders move they tend to commit crimes in locations farther away from past offences than would be expected without moving. The effect is rather small though, both in absolute terms (an elasticity coefficient of 0.02), and in relation to the effect of other independent variables (such as the time in between offenses). This finding suggests that the home has an impact on where an offender will choose to commit a crime, independent of offence, neighborhood, or offender characteristics. The effect is small though, suggesting other factors may play a larger role in influencing where offenders choose to commit crime.

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-021-09511-y

Victimization incidence rates produced from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) are a generally accepted annual indicator of the amount and type of crime in the United States. However, persons who report a large number of similar victimizations—known as series victimizations in the NCVS—are currently excluded in government reports of annual violent victimizations. This paper quantifies the effect of series incident counting procedures on national estimates of violent victimization. The findings suggest that these high-volume repeat victims can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of violent victimization. Current government counting rules that exclude series incidents do not include about three out of every five violent victimizations and distorts the characterization and risk of violence in the United States. However, the inclusion of series incidents introduces significant estimate instability. One remedy is to use prevalence rates in concert with incidence rates to present a more complete and reliable picture of victimization.

Criminologists seldom have attempted to measure the severity of physical injury to victims of aggravated assault and homicide, even though it is significant to many of their research efforts. Previous attempts have been neither medically accurate nor medically acceptable. In this paper the author discusses the shortcomings of these efforts and introduces an alternative method which is valid, reliable, and medically acceptable. In addition, the author discusses its applicability to research the impact of medical intervention on violent criminal assault, on factors which contribute to the severity of assaultive injury and the lethal outcome of violent assault, on specific questions regarding the patterns of offending and victimization, and on the administration of criminal justice.

Using data from the UCR's Supplementary Homicide Reports, the methodof qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is used to examine whetherinstrumental and expressive homicides are similar or unique in their socialcontext (i.e., combinations of offender, victim, and situationalcharacteristics). Instrumental and expressive homicides are found to haveboth common and unique social contexts, but the vast majority of homicideincidents involve combinations of individual and situational factors thatare common in both general types of homicides. Among subtypes ofinstrumental (like rape, prostitution, robbery murders) and expressivehomicides (like lovers' triangles, brawls, and arguments), there iswide variability in their prevalence of unique and common components. Afterdiscussing these results, the paper concludes with illustrations of how QCAmay be used in other areas within criminology.

The article turns a critical eye on problems arising from use of largesamples and complicated statistics to handle multilevel designs. I arguethat although these have a legitimate role to play in discovering causalrelations, valuable information can be lost or distorted in the processof their use. Exploratory classification and tree diagrams show howtransitional analyses can unpack effects of community, family, priormisbehavior, juvenile delinquency, and incarceration on adult criminalbehavior. The analyses showed that in the worst neighborhoods, disruptivebehavior had little discriminating power with regard to juveniledelinquency or adult crime. They showed also that good family interactionsserve as protection against crime in all types of neighborhoods. ConstructTheory, I suggest, is a way to understand the influences that seem toproduce criminal behavior.

The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) is an incident-basedcrime reporting program for local, state, and federal law enforcementagencies. Within each criminal incident, NIBRS captures information onoffenses, victims, offenders, property, and persons arrested, as well asinformation about the incident itself. The ability to link and analyze thisdetailed information is a significant improvement to the existing UniformCrime Reporting (UCR) summary reporting system. As one might expect,however, this increase in crime data significantly complicates the life ofthe data analyst, particularly when cross tabulating the NIBRS data. To dealwith the complexity of NIBRS data, one must understand its structure. Thisarticle provides an overview of the NIBRS structure and methods formaneuvering within it to present and interpret correctly cross tabulationsof the NIBRS data.

We used data from a 601-family longitudinal study to estimate the separate and combined effects of three risk factors—parental psychiatric disorders (principally depression and substance abuse), supportive parent-child communications, and household income—on the development of deviant behavior in boys and girls aged 11–14. Using logistic response models, we concluded that having fewer than two supportive parents generally increases the risk of deviant behavior, but more so for boys than for girls. This effect is amplified when one or more parent(s) has a chronic mental disorder, but thecombination of fewer than two supportive parentsand one psychiatrically impaired parent has a particularly marked effect on girls. Moreover, older children's behavior is affected more dramatically by parental mental disorders, especially among girls; 13 to 14-year-old girls with both parental risk factors are virtually as deviant as male agemates with both risks. Each one of these effects is present regardless of family income level; however, net of these risks, household income is negatively associated with deviant behavior—a 10% increase in income is associated with a 1.3% decrease in adolescent deviance.

Test the asymmetry thesis of police-citizen contact that police trustworthiness and legitimacy are affected more by negative than by positive experiences of interactions with legal agents by analyzing changes in attitudes towards the police after an encounter with the police. Test whether prior attitudes moderate the impact of contact on changes in attitudes towards the police. A two-wave panel survey of a nationally representative sample of Australian adults measured people’s beliefs about police trustworthiness (procedural fairness and effectiveness), their duty to obey the police, their contact with the police between the two waves, and their evaluation of those encounters in terms of process and outcome. Analysis is carried out using autoregressive structural equation modeling and latent moderated structural models. The association between both process and outcome evaluation of police-citizen encounters and changes in attitudes towards the police is asymmetrical for trust in police effectiveness, symmetrical for trust in procedural fairness, and asymmetrical (in the opposite direction expected) for duty to obey the police. Little evidence of heterogeneity in the association between encounters and trust in procedural fairness and duty to obey, but prior levels of perceived effectiveness moderate the association between outcome evaluation and changes in trust in police effectiveness. The association between police-citizen encounters and attitudes towards the police may not be as asymmetrical as previously thought, particularly for changes in trust in procedural fairness and legitimacy. Policy implications include considering public-police interactions as ‘teachable moments’ and potential sources for enhancing police trustworthiness and legitimacy.