Journal of Applied Probability

A new Markov chain is introduced which can be used to describe the family relationships amongnindividuals drawn from a particular generation of a large haploid population. The properties of this process can be studied, simultaneously for all n, by coupling techniques. Recent results in neutral mutation theory are seen as consequences of the genealogy described by the chain.

A Hawkes process is also known under the name of a self-exciting point process and has numerous applications throughout science and engineering. We derive the statistical estimation (maximum likelihood estimation) and goodness-of-fit (mainly graphical) for multivariate Hawkes processes with possibly dependent marks. As an application, we analyze two data sets from finance.

Very general forms of the strong law of large numbers and the central limit theorem are proved for estimates of the unknown parameters in a sinusoidal oscillation observed subject to error. In particular when the unknown frequency θ₀, is in fact 0 or <it is shown that the estimate, , satisfies for N ≧ N₀ (ω) where N₀ (ω) is an integer, determined by the realisation, ω, of the process, that is almost surely finite.

As proposed by Ebrahimi, uncertainty in the residual lifetime distribution can be measured by means of the Shannon entropy. In this paper, we analyse a dual characterization of life distributions that is based on entropy applied to the past lifetime. Various aspects of this measure of uncertainty are considered, including its connection with the residual entropy, the relation between its increasing nature and the DRFR property, and the effect of monotonic transformations on it.

We prove large deviation results for the random sum , , where are non-negative integer-valued random variables and are i.i.d. non-negative random variables with common distribution function F, independent of . Special attention is paid to the compound Poisson process and its ramifications. The right tail of the distribution function F is supposed to be of Pareto type (regularly or extended regularly varying). The large deviation results are applied to certain problems in insurance and finance which are related to large claims.

A definition of ESS (evolutionarily stable strategy) is suggested for games in which there are two types of player, each with its own set of strategies, and the fitness of any strategy depends upon the strategy mix, of both types, in the population as a whole. We check that the standard ESS results hold for this definition and discuss a mate-desertion model which has appeared in the literature in which the two types are male and female.

We consider preemptive scheduling of N tasks on m processors; processors have different speeds, tasks require amounts of work which are exponentially distributed, with different parameters. The policies of assigning at every moment the task with shortest (longest) expected processing time among those not yet completed to the fastest processor available, second shortest (longest) to the second fastest etc., are examined, and shown to minimize expected values of various cost functions. As special cases we obtain policies which minimize expected flowtime, expected makespan and expected lifetime of a series system with m component locations and N spares.

An approximation for the average delay in queue of an entering customer is presented for the M/G/K queuing model with finite capacity. The approximation is obtained by means of an approximation relating a joint distribution of remaining service time to the equilibrium service distribution.

A new partial ordering among life distributions in terms of their uncertainties is introduced. Our measure of uncertainty is Shannon information applied to the residual lifetime. The relationship between this ordering and various existing orderings of life distributions are discussed. Various properties of our proposed concept are examined. Based on our proposed ordering and various existing orderings, the notion of a ‘better system' is introduced.

Necessary and sufficient conditions for the so-called Hurst effect are given in the case of a weakly dependent stationary sequence of random variables perturbed by a trend. As a consequence of this general result it is shown that the Hurst effect is present in the case of weakly dependent random variables with a small monotonic trend of the formf(n) =c(m+n)^ß, where m is an arbitrary non-negative parameter andcis not 0. For – ½ <ß< 0 the Hurst exponent is shown to be precisely given by 1 +ß.Forß≦ – ½ and forß= 0 the Hurst exponent is 0.5, while forß > 0it is 1. This simple mathematical model, motivated by empirical evidence in various geophysical records, demonstrates the presence of the Hurst effect in a direction not explored before.