Economic Inquiry

Using a panel cointegration framework, the article explores the two‐way link between FDI and growth for a panel of 23 developing countries. In addition, it investigates the impact of liberalization on the dynamics of the FDI and GDP relationship. A long‐run cointegrating relationship is found between FDI and GDP after allowing for heterogeneous country effects. The cointegrating vectors reveal a bidirectional causality between GDP and FDI for more open economies. For relatively closed economies, long‐run causality appears unidirectional and runs from GDP to FDI, implying that growth and FDI are not mutually reinforcing under restrictive trade and investment regimes.

This article shows that identical offers in an ultimatum game generate systematically different rejection rates depending on the other offers that are available to the proposer. This result casts doubt on the consequentialist practice in economics to define the utility of an action solely in terms of the consequences of the action irrespective of the set of alternatives. It means in particular that negatively reciprocal behavior cannot be fully captured by equity models that are exclusively based on preferences over the distribution of material payoffs.

The impact of trade liberalization on the labor market in the North has drawn tremendous attention in the face of the growing skilled‐unskilled wage gap but in the South it has been somewhat neglected. One of the key structural differences between the North and the South is that the South experiences a pronounced rural‐urban migration in the presence of urban unemployment. We introduce this feature in the structure of a simple general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of trade liberalization and fragmentation on employment and the skilled‐unskilled wage differential in the South. In particular, we show that while fragmentation necessarily improves the unskilled wage and the skilled wage, more lucrative global opportunities for the skilled final product, in the absence of fragmentation, can reduce the rural wage and increase urban unemployment. The effect of fragmentation, ceteris paribus, on the skilled‐unskilled wage gap is sensitive to the degree of substitutability between land and unskilled labor. As such, fragmentation can magnify the increase in the skilled‐unskilled wage gap resulting from an improvement in the terms of trade. It is also shown that a technological progress in the intermediate goods sector increases the skilled‐unskilled wage gap and raises urban unemployment.(JELF1, O1, F11, F12)

This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy–related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry‐level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities. (JEL Q43, E37, C32)

We analyze data from the Survey of Consumer Finances estimate the response of credit card demand to standard price and income effects. We model credit card demand as a two‐stage process, with consumers obtaining limits in the first stage and then borrowing some fraction of those limits in the second. We estimate this model with a nested tobit procedure. We also treat the demand for limits as one equation in a two‐equation supply‐demand model. We estimate this model with simple 2SLS, instrumenting for the price variable, the interest rate. The results of the first model suggest that most of the action in the market is in the demand for limits, not the demand for balances. (JEL D1, G0)

A new dataset allows researchers to examine patterns of credit card use for both borrowing and payoff. This article addresses changes in these behaviors for different birth cohorts by estimating cohort‐adjusted age profiles for debt and payoff rates based on a time series of cross sections. Younger consumers are found to be borrowing more heavily and repaying at lower rates than older generations. The accumulation of credit card debt is found to continue over the lifecycle. This has implications for recent changes in laws governing the credit card industry. Increases in minimum required payment rates are examined and are found to increase actual payoff rates more than proportionately. (JEL D12)

This research examines psychological debt stress and changes in household debt holdings for consumers during the Great Recession using data from a monthly national U.S. household survey covering the period 2006 through 2012. Debt stress measures in the population rose by over 50% at the bottom of the recession. Determining relative stress for eight different types of household debt, we find that noncollateralized debts are more stressful than collateralized debt and that during the recession the composition of debt shifted away from collateralized debt and toward noncollateralized. Our empirical results show that women and Hispanics experienced higher measured levels of stress. (JEL D12, D18)

Theories of commitment, altruism, and reciprocity have been invoked to explain and describe behavior in public goods and social dilemma situations. Commitment has been used to explain behaviors like water conservation and voting. Altruism has been applied to explain contributions to charities and intergenerational transfers and bequests. Reciprocity has been invoked to explain gift exchange and labor market decisions. This paper describes a set of experiments, which distinguish between these competing theories by testing their comparative statics predictions in a linear public goods setting. Results provide strong support for reciprocity theories over either theories of commitment or of altruism. (JEL C9, D64, H41, C72)