Wind extremes in the North Sea Basin under climate change: An ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres - Tập 118 Số 4 - Trang 1601-1612 - 2013
Renske de Winter1,2, Andreas Sterl2, Gerben Ruessink1
1Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.115, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands
2Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, Netherlands

Tóm tắt

Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in extreme surge levels and wave extremes may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defenses. In the North Sea, an area already prone to severe flooding, these high surge levels and waves are generated by low atmospheric pressure and severe wind speeds during storm events. As a result of the geometry of the North Sea, not only the maximum wind speed is relevant, but also wind direction. Climate change could change maximum wind conditions, with potentially negative effects for coastal safety. Here, we use an ensemble of 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) and diagnose the effect of two climate scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) on annual maximum wind speed, wind speeds with lower return frequencies, and the direction of these annual maximum wind speeds. The 12 selected CMIP5 models do not project changes in annual maximum wind speed and in wind speeds with lower return frequencies; however, we do find an indication that the annual extreme wind events are coming more often from western directions. Our results are in line with the studies based on CMIP3 models and do not confirm the statement based on some reanalysis studies that there is a climate‐change‐related upward trend in storminess in the North Sea area.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Alexandersson H., 1998, Long‐term variations of the storm climate over NW Europe, Global Atmos. Ocean Syst., 6, 97

10.3354/cr014071

10.1175/JCLI3815.1

10.1029/2012JD018578

10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0_3

10.1002/qj.776

10.1007/s10236‐012‐0551‐7

10.1002/qj.828

10.1029/2011GL047995

10.1007/s10236‐008‐0141‐x

10.1029/2012GL052873

10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

10.1007/s10584‐011‐0156‐z

10.1111/j.1600‐0870.2010.00466.x

Parry M. L., 2007, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 976

10.1007/s00382‐010‐0955‐3

Solomon S., 2007, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10.5194/os-5-369-2009

The WASA‐Group, 1998, Changing waves and storms in the northeast Atlantic?, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 741, 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0741:CWASIT>2.0.CO;2

10.1029/2008GL035967

10.2166/wst.2007.533

Von Storch H., 2001, Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, 117

10.1007/s00382‐011‐1107‐0

10.1007/s10236‐006‐0094‐x

10.1007/s10236‐005‐0024‐3

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Tập 118 Số 4

1601-1612

Thông tin tác giả