Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Bauer N, Baumstark L, Leimbach M (2012) The REMIND-R model: the role of renewables in the low-carbon transformation—first-best vs. second-best worlds. Clim Change 114:145–168
Bauer N, Mouratiadou I, Luderer G, et al (this issue) Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0901-6
Bosetti V, Carraro C, Galeotti M, et al (2006) WITCH: a world induced technical change hybrid model. Energy J 27 (Special Issue 2):13–38
Bosetti V, Carraro C, De Cian E, et al. (2009) The 2008 WITCH model: new model features and baseline. FEEM Working Paper 2009:085
Bosetti V, Marangoni G, Borgonovo E, et al. (2015) Sensitivity to energy technology costs: A multi-model comparison analysis. Energy Policy 80:244–263. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012
Clarke L, Jiang K, Akimoto K, et al. (2014) Assessing Transformation Pathways. In: Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, et al. (eds) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
Clarke L, Kyle P, Wise M, et al. (2008) CO2 emissions mitigation and technological advance: an updated analysis of advanced technology scenarios. PNNL Report. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA
De Cian E, Sferra F, Tavoni M (this issue) The influence of economic growth, population, and fossil fuel scarcity on energy investments. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0902-5
Edmonds J, Reilly JM (1985) Global energy: assessing the future. Oxford University Press, New York
Edmonds J, Wise M, Pitcher H, et al. (1997) An integrated assessment of climate change and the Accelerated Introduction of advanced energy technologies - an application of MiniCAM 1.0. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob. Change 1:311–339. doi: 10.1023/B:MITI.0000027386.34214.60
Gillingham K, Nordhaus WD, Anthoff D, et al. (2015) Modeling uncertainty in climate. A Multi-Model Comparison. Natl Bur Econ Res Work Pap Ser, Paper No. 21637. doi: 10.3386/w21637
Grübler A, Johansson TB, Mundaca L, et al. (2012) Chapter 1 - Energy Primer. In: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 99–150
Hawksworth J (2006) The world in 2050: How big will the major emerging market economies get and how can the OECD compete? Pricewaterhouse Coopers, London
IPCC (2014) Scenario Database of the 5th Assessment Report of Working Group III of the IPCC. Accessible at https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB . See Krey et al., 2014b, Section 10, for a description of the database.
Jiang K, Masui T, Morita T, Matsuoka Y (2000) Long-term GHG emission scenarios of Asia-Pacific and the world. Tech Forcasting Soc Change 61(2–3):207–229
Krey V, Luderer G, Clarke L, Kriegler E (2014a) Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios. Clim Change 123:369–382. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0947-5
Krey V, Masera O, Blanford G, et al (2014b) Annex II: Metrics & Methodology. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, et al (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Kriegler E, Petermann N, Krey V, et al (2015) Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. Technol Forecast Soc Change 90, Part A:45–61. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020
Kriegler E, Weyant JP, Blanford GJ, et al. (2014) The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Clim Change 123:353–367. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0953-7
Leimbach M, Bauer N, Baumstark L, Edenhofer O (2010) Mitigation costs in a globalized world: climate policy analysis with REMIND-R. Environ Model Assess 15:155–173. doi: 10.1007/s10666-009-9204-8
Leimbach M, Kriegler E, Roming N, Schwanitz J (2016) Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach. Glob Environ Change. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.005
Luderer G, Bertram C, Calvin K, et al (this issue) Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0899-9
Luderer G, Leimbach M, Bauer N, et al (2015) Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6) Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2697070
Luderer G, Pietzcker RC, Bertram C, et al. (2013) Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets. Environ Res Lett 8:34033. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034033
McJeon HC, Clarke L, Kyle P, et al. (2011) Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: what can we learn from a large number of scenarios? Energy Econ 33:619–631. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2010.10.007
Morita T, Nakicenovic N, Robinson J (2000) Overview of mitigation scenarios for global climate stabilization based on new IPCC emission scenarios (SRES). Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 3(2):65–88
Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al. (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: A special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 570 pp
Nordhaus WD, Boyer J (2000) Warming the world: Economic models of global warming, 2000. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
Northrop PJ, Chandler RE (2014) Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate. J Clim 27:8793–8808
Paltsev S, Capros P (2013) Cost concepts for climate change mitigation. Climate Change Economics, 4(Supplement 1):1340003
Pietzcker RC, Ueckerdt F, Luderer L (2015) Improving the representation of wind and solar variability in IAMs. Poster presented at the 8th Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium. Accessible at http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/iamc/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/IAMC-meeting-Report-2015_Annex3_Posters_final.pdf
Riahi K, Dentener F, Gielen D, et al. (2012) Chapter 17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable development. In: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable future. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1203–1306
Riahi K, van Vuuren D, Kriegler E, et al (2016) The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: An Overview. Global Environmental Change
Riahi K, Kriegler E, Johnson N, et al (2015) Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technol Forecast Soc Change 90, Part A:8–23. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016
Rogelj J, McCollum DL, O’Neill BC, et al. (2013b) 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C. Nat Clim Chang 3:405–412. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1758
Rogelj J, McCollum DL, Riahi K (2013b) The UN’s “Sustainable energy for all” initiative is compatible with a warming limit of 2 [deg]C. Nat Clim Chang 3:545–551
Rogner H-H, Aguilera RF, Archer CL, et al. (2012) Chapter 7: Energy Resources and Potentials. In: Zou J (ed) Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable future. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 425–512
Saltelli A, Ratto M, Andres T, et al. (2008) Global sensitivity analysis: the Primer. Wiley, New York
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2008). World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
UNFCCC (2015) Paris Agreement. United Nations Treaty Collection. Chapter XXVII Environment. TREATIES-XXVII.7d.
Webster M, Sokolov A, Reilly J, et al. (2012) Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty. Clim Change 112:569–583
Weyant J, Davidson O, Dowlabathi H, et al. (1996) Integrated assessment of climate change: an overview and comparison of approaches and results. In: Bruce JP, Lee H, Haites EF (eds) Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions - Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. pp. 371-396