Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) - Tập 263 Số 5147 - Trang 641-646 - 1994
Наоми Орескес1, Kristin Shrader‐Frechette2, Kenneth Belitz3
1Department of Earth Sciences and the Department of History, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755
2Department of Philosophy, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620
3Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755

Tóm tắt

Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic.

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